The Two Biggest Debt Caverns in the World …

Larry Edelson

No, it’s not the so-called massive government debt problem in China. Like the stories of the ghost cities there, China’s debt problems are largely a myth, in the sense that it’s still largely a closed economy and monetary system. A communist economy where it’s largely the state owing the state … debts can be extinguished by the stroke of a pen.

I’m talking about the brewing U.S. pension crisis and Washington’s sovereign debt crisis, which is now here in spades.

I have been ramping up the warnings in these columns and in my new E-wave columns that now publish every Monday, Wednesday and Friday afternoons.

You know about the U.S. sovereign debt crisis. Washington is officially in debt to the tune of $20 trillion PLUS as much as another $200 trillion in “unofficial debts and IOUs.”

Things like raided Medicare accounts, Social Security Trust Funds, and more.

It’s so bad already that the 30-year U.S. Treasury has already had its worst decline in 26 years, shedding as much as 19% of its value in just the past five months, with the yield soaring from 2.099 to 3.16, a huge 50.5% jump in the same time period.

So much pain is coming in the sovereign debt markets of Europe, Japan and the U.S. …

It will be like a nuclear holocaust wipeout of tens of trillions of wealth.

It will be like a nuclear holocaust wipeout of tens of trillions of wealth.

But there’s also the more personal hit of watching your state and municipal pensions get gutted.

Currently in deficit by at least $1.3 trillion, the state and local pensions deficits are headed into their deathbeds and it will take nothing short of a miracle to turn them around.

Based on assumptions of achieving returns of roughly 6% to 8% for years on end now, they’ve been returning less than 1% in reality. The “gap” between those figures is bleeding pensions to death and will soon cause a massive coronary heart attack that will reverberate through state and local pensions …

Wiping out police retirements, teacher retirements, public service retirements of all kinds.

Want a sneak peek at what it’s going to look like and cause? Simply look at the ongoing Greek labor unions and their protests over wages, pension and labor agreements which are now ramping up again big time.

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Or look at California and Illinois where withdrawals from pensions and employees exiting the system are taking what money they can get now and heading for the hills and in record numbers.

Is it any wonder Americans have gotten angry? Is it any wonder Europeans are doing the same?

I don’t think so, and if I were you I would do everything in my power to protect whatever funds I have in a state or local — and even corporate pension.

And I certainly would not rely on Social Security and Medicare. It’s not going to be there for you. Those programs will start breaking down late next year.

My view: Use the power of large macro-economic cycles that can foretell of these events well ahead of time.

Just like they did for those who profited enormously by correctly timing the Great Depression. They were, yes, in the minority — but it doesn’t have to be that way.

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Lastly for today — be sure to read the December issue of my Real Wealth Report when it publishes Friday, December 16.

It’s my gala forecast issue for 2017 for key markets. You’ll want to keep it by your side as the new year commences. It’s chock full of my Artificial Intelligence charts as well as my comments and important data points for gold, silver, the dollar, the euro, the U.S. 30-year bond and the Dow Jones Industrials.

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Stay safe and best wishes, as always …


Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

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Comments 34

Peter December 14, 2016

excellent work Larry


steve renaud December 14, 2016

i enjoy reading your column

Arnold Sue December 14, 2016

If you guys are sooo successful how come you charge the working class people like me $49.00. I am a construction worker who would like to make the returns you mentioned , but I am not a season investor. I have worked very hard all of my life to provide electricity and other services to this great country, I donot have a pension plan or any significant 401K plan so retirement is out of my reach. Unfortunately we who work hard do not the luxury of the million dollar salary that the sport men make. I would like to invest but I need some more guidance. Thanks.


gordon December 14, 2016

Yes Arnold Sue investing.My personal opinion is that all the guidance paid or free will not help you. The rich are running the market for their benefit only front running back running every which way they can to make a so called buck. They are the foxes loose in the hen house now. They add more high priced staff while the SEC and the IRS are shedding staff in "downsizing" "rebalancing" call it what you want. I call it a license to steal. Governments are on the run hollowing out their realms of power to the benefit of the rich. Its a war on the poor and middle class.

Harold Whitfield December 14, 2016

#Arnold Sue, I too was a construction worker. I learned early that I would not get rich by doing what everyone else was doing, working by the hour. Through the years I learned all I could about construction and started buying real estate. At first I had some success and some failures but I learned and eventually made a lot of money in real estate. Now I'm learning other investing in other areas. It is really a matter of learning and doing rather than just sitting and complaining. I am where I am in live because of my past decisions, it is as simple as that as it is with all of us. Good luck on your journey.

Liam December 14, 2016

Arnold, $49.00 is a very very reasonable price for the value of the RWR. You could look at it a number of ways. *If Larry's advice helps you make $50 in 12 months, the subscription paid for itself. *For the same price, you could nearly buy one pair of jeans. Which one would you get more enjoyment out of? *The cost of publication including marketing, advertising, editing, and administration is baked into the price, thus the profit margin is not outrageous, unlike perhaps the jeans example.

Steve December 14, 2016

Arnold, Apply to local utility to put your electrical skills to work. Electric ute will pay great salary and outstanding benefits. You will be able to get news letter with 1 hour pay. I enjoyed 35 years at Potomac electric.

Linda Lavelle December 15, 2016

Gordon, your Marxist philosophy has never helped anyone generate wealth, only misery and discontent. Read the Forbes' billionaire stories sometime, only 10% of their wealth was inherited, most started off poor, some dirt poor, and worked hard for many years to achieve success. Arnold Sue, save as much as you can every paycheck, even if it's a little. Learn about some simple investments. I was a single mom with 3 kids and low paying jobs for years, but I saved.....didn't buy clothes or coffee. I've never had my nails done, drove jalopies. Always looked for bargains, etc. My first investment was 20 shares of IBM. That's all I could afford with my savings. Over the years I've educated myself on investing and today I am retired (no pension) and have enough assets to last till I die. You can do it too. It takes sacrifice and discipline.

GP Wede December 17, 2016

I agree with you since I have lost 10s of thousands of dollars in Martin Weiss calls in 2008 when I positioned myself out of the market near the bottom and got into inverse funds in the markets and dollar only to be on the wrong side of the market again with a paid subscription...The odd thing today than the dot com 1999 top is no middle class or lower people are even talking about it since most are out of the markets since 2008 or have no money left after paying their bills to invest. Most spending everything on debt payoff house, student loans, medical bills, premiums, used cars etc.The 90s all times market highs was much different everyone was talking about making money even highscool kids had extra money to buy tech stocks with money being made easily in the market...stocks were the discussion at every family event and water cooler discussion..none of that exists's a computer program driven market controlled by govts and central banks trying to survive as long as possible...I do agree with Larry it will all and soon and badly for 95% of the people. Any form of paper is worthless stocks, cds, bonds, I should have been buying land these last 35 years and wooded areas with hardwood trees like our settlers did and I would be in great financial shape. Unfortunately the media and financial system controlled by a few since the internet began has been the devil in disguise. 401ks are all toast to due to paper asserts..good luck to all since this will not and or bottom nicely..gather your family and love together and enjoy life like it was meant to be without wealth

Joseph Cumiford December 17, 2016

Arnold Sue, Go with what you know. You provide electric. In the years to come, I think uranium will be in big demand. Go Nuclear!!!:)

Dick December 18, 2016

I have often asked wallstreet sellers" if you have a gurentee to make money,why do you need me"?

steve renaud December 14, 2016

The increase in interest rates back to the norm are good for pensions trying to stay afloat But bad for countries trying to pay their debts


Michael December 14, 2016

Just another can to kick down the road. That's what will happen no matter what you say.


Al McNal December 14, 2016

It seems that triple the average volume for the S&P and Dow signifies something significant. This rise looks very overbought but it also matches your 32,000 Dow prediction that it is powerful. So far I'm glad you are cautious on this move.


Ken December 14, 2016

It's frustrating predicting Trump's win and trading based on it and not making any money. On the one hand, he can be the real deal that reverses the purposeful multi-decade move towards communism as the Birch Society predicted many years ago. On the other hand, will Trump be stopped by his own "party' by globalists like John McCain? I pray that Trump survives the oncoming onslaught. If anyone can survive it, it's Mr. Trump.


Wm Schultz December 14, 2016

no offense but stop whining about being a working man...we're all working men and we all started with nothing. starrt by having 10 % of your current pay taken out of your check that you don't see and put it into an untouchable IRA account. Until you have that built up to at least $10,000 or so you shouldn't worry about investing it. when you have saved $8,000-$10,000 then the $49.00 isn't a big deal and you can then think about using the info to invest. If you really want to succeed faster you will need to take a 2 nd job nights and /or weekends where all the proceeds are not touched to spend on anything but go straight into your investment account only. It'll be a tough 5 yrs or so but you will then be on your way to success of your own doing but I warn you...when you start to break ahead of your friends and relatives THEY WILL CALL YOU LUCKY!!


Chuck Burton December 14, 2016

Those statist pension funds are the creation of so-called "liberal" politicians, seeking votes and power. They are not liberal at all of course, but statist and controlling. Anti-liberal, if you will, in the classical sense of the word. The growing sense of doom for our system is the result of their actions, and the sin of Greed, which infests us all, and which they like to play to.


Jack December 14, 2016

I don't think that any government, at any level, should offer pension plans. It's too easy for politicians to kick the can down the road in order to claim success in making deals with unions. Everyone except military should have their own plans. Everyone should be included in Society Security. The people that are exempted are the higher paid and are more secure in their jobs.


Question December 14, 2016

Long time subscriber, & would appreciate your defining what you mean in the above statement, that programs in Social Security will start breaking down in late 2017 ? Does that mean older folks that have been on S. S. will get cut also ? How far will they go in the desperate government's do desperate things ? Thanks, Bill Miller


BILL ACKERMAN December 14, 2016



H. Craig Bradley December 14, 2016

AHEAD OF THE CURVE ? I live in Calif. and have not heard a word about govt. employees taking lump sum cash payments or "running" on CALPERS or any other Calif. or local government pension fund, as yet. This problem is in its infancy. It will probably take a bear market drawdown and recession to bring about wider public pension fund demise. So, whenever real pension fund failure occurs, it may indeed prove to be the "tipping point". So, Larry is a bit early to the "party". Its still coming to a city or town near you, but not yet. Most Californians are complacent, very complacent. ( They do not care ). So, if public employee retirements get wiped-out someday, it won't be my problem.


philip g December 14, 2016

Seems to me the ONLY THING TI INVEST IN IS: "GOLD"...phil goldman


Norm December 14, 2016

Dear Arnold Sue - I am shocked that you would expect someone to provide their valuable services for FREE. Larry has multiple newsletters. The sum of $49.00 is a paltry amount compared to some of the other newsletter subscriptions which Larry offers that go for thousands of $ annually. Might I suggest that, before starting to invest you read a few books on business finance or accounting? Amazon has many to offer. To invest in any company without understanding the financial statements they they report on their business activities would be sheer suicide financially. You need to become financially literate first. Our normal schools do NOT teach that! I'd suggest you read Robert Kiyosaki's books (he has many). He is committed to teaching financial literacy. (Sorry his books aren't free either.) Wishing you well in your endeavors to retire one day!


Mark December 14, 2016

Hey Larry, greetings from South Texas. As you advise on precious metals, all the graphs, charts and historical trends are useless when the Federal Reserve, bullion banks, and a few dozen of the too big to fail banks are conspiring, colluding to manipulate and rig the price of metals to conceal the erosive effect of unabated money printing and debasement of currencies. Here is a link to the best article which explains in great detail on this epic fraud. Some are an under "investigation" to nowhere. They may pay a few million in fines which pales to the billions they make on this swindle. nobody will ever go to jail and the corruption will continue. Your thoughts?


hedy1234 December 14, 2016

Arnold- I hear and understand your dilemma. The country is in difficult shape for the "working class". Construction work is particularly tough and very much project to project. However, Larry is not responsible for your personal financial situation is he? Do you think he should do the work and then just give it away? Why would he do it in the first place if there was no financial incentive. I hope you do not think you are "entitled" to it. If it were free, most folks would give it little value. I not trying to lecture to you but consider how many folks spend their money on wants rather than needs. How many cell phones does the typical family have? How much do folks spend on cable tv? How many folks feel they need a new car every so many years? I am not saying this is you since I don't know you, but many folks do not save because of wants not needs. If you can't afford the subscription what is the likelihood you have the money to take advantage of the investment opportunities offered? There is no get rich quick. There is get rich slowly and this has to start with saving a portion of all earnings for a long period of time. Good luck!


John December 14, 2016

I don't get the bond thing, if bond prices are falling and interest rates are rising, wouldn't one want to buy bonds? If there is massive dumping of bonds some one is on the buy side no?


hedy1234 December 15, 2016

John-If the price of something (bonds) is dropping, why would you buy now? You wouldn't. You would wait until the price had leveled off and turned back up a bit before buying. It is fine to buy bonds that are selling for less than par value. but you have to be willing to hold them until maturity to get all the principal back. If you do that you will be fine.

Will December 15, 2016

"A communist economy where it's largely the state owing the state...", you say Larry. Where were you at the time when the communist economy collapsed in Russia? Debt is debt and empty buildings are a waste to the citizens.


Flash December 15, 2016

H.Craig Bailey, this pension debt will be all of our problem. A greedy government will do what ever it takes to protect their own pensions and those of the people who elect them and contribute to their campaign to stay in office. This could include stuff like happened in Greece, or regulations to force you to put part of your savings or IRA money in Government Bonds. Think about it, If they can force you to buy health ins. and bail out Billion dollar banks, you think they give a crap about the rest of us. As the one person said read books and learn to make money from what you can learn to do. I have done that for 40 years and have had 2 jobs most of the time. Also, spread your assets out, as it will be harder for the government to tax or confiscate all of them. Good luck, this guy, Larry has some good ideas.


James C December 16, 2016

Hey Larry, one of the reasons why America and China are the richest countries in the world are because they are the opposite of a small open economy which is currently the country I reside in, their a large closed economy. How is this gonna affect the current account balances of the big two countries I would like to know. Is their gonna be a a gold tranche or return to the gold bullion standard. I am 36 and a year into middle age, the key question here is if their is another boom will this cause a multiplier effect in the economy. Your Kuznets Cycles waves are very interesting. Or do you reckon we are just in for a scion of opprobrium in the new year? best wishes as always larry.


Alex S December 16, 2016

I think you will find that the $50 trillion that China has built up in debt will matter.. approaching 500% of debt to GDP and 20% of global debt... China's banking system has moved from $9 trillion in 2007 to $36 trillion in 2015---maybe over $40 trillion now while the U S banking system has moved up a net $1 trillion---$9 trillion in 2008 to a net of excess reserves of $10 trillion now). China---2015--$30 trillion in the banks and $6 trillion in shadow banking...4 times the size of the U S banking system. China in 2007 was $8 trillion in the banks and $1 trillion in shadow banking... This does not include their corporate bonds---both domestic and foreign and local and regional bonds, sovereign bonds and inter company and private debt. My estimates for China now approach 500% debt to GDP. They have gone from a relatively low debt country to #1 in the world--I think they have passed Japan. You say it does not matter because it is a government controlled economy. Well I guess we all should go there as we have too much debt to ever pay back right now. China has produced via borrowing from 2008 thru 2014 about 60 to 70% of the increase in global GDP when you add the increase in exports to China from their global suppliers over this period to their increase in reported GDP. Have we found the new magic bullet for global growth; just have China print more money and issue more debt and build more unneeded assets???? When does confidence in their currency collapse when the locals figure out that there is no real wealth in their entire system. Just the slowdown in growth from China since 2014 has caused real pain for many countries. What happens when China loses all growth and starts shrinking??? The U S consumer was the engine for global growth from the 1980's thru 2007 and China took over. It has been the increase in sovereign debt in the U S, Japan, Europe and many other countries that is the only growth in most all of the above. Debt increases risk and slows growth; it is not the answer. You are saying that our debt matters. I think China's debt will matter too.


russian bear December 17, 2016


Stephen Ettinger December 17, 2016

All articles are good and insightful. But I am scratching my head trying to figure out that if we are in a downward zone in the cycle of economics and the downward cycle shows us ready to crash and burn in the next 1-3 years, how is the Stock Market going to hit 31,000+ and gold going to hit $5,000/z+ - This is intel you have shared Larry, so how do we crash and burn in your K- Wave, and yet the DOW is going to run 31,000+ with gold running 5K?- Is the dollar going to collapse? - Time to buy assets that retain their value thru a dollar collapse? Steve Scott


robert December 18, 2016

Au is artificially CHEAP,real prices could TRIPLE,CHINESE CONTINUE TO BUY Au on massive level,they are digging and processing entire mountains of AFGAN PLACER GOLD, I DARE SAY they would be lucky to get ONE ounce per several TONS