What’s Up With Gold and Mining Shares?

Almost everyone thinks gold has bottomed. That it’s going to keep on heading literally straight up.

And almost everyone also thinks I’m dead wrong on gold.

But the facts of the matter are these:

A. Although I did not issue a buy signal, I nailed the bottom in gold again, at the $1,044 level in late November/early December last year.

B. I’ve nailed the recent trading range, the recent sideways action between roughly $1,220 and $1,280. A $60 range that no one in their right mind, except day traders, should try to trade or invest in.

C. And soon, you will realize that my short-term forecast will bring gold back down to below $1,200, the $1,160 to $1,180 level …

D. That when you see those price levels for gold, you should start backing up the truck!

E. Furthermore, there is nothing, and I mean nothing, that yet convinces me that my long-term forecasts for gold will be wrong and that gold will hit at least $5,000 by the year 2020.

Keep in mind my models on gold have never, and I mean never, missed one single major turning point since 1978. Not one.

Gold Chart

For the short-term downward bias in gold right now, keep your eyes on the $1,206 level, then $1,191.50.

A close below the second figure should result in a test of what should now be major long-term support at the $1,160 level, with worst case support coming in at $1,120.00.

Silver, platinum and palladium will all generally follow gold’s lead.

On the upside, gold MUST close above $1.307.75 on a weekly basis, at a minimum to suggest further immediate upside action. Anything short of that would be just another massive failure.

All figures quoted are basis the nearby June futures contract.

Now, let me discuss with you for a moment the mining sector. Here too, I caught the bottom, although I was not aggressive in issuing buy signals. With the exception of two senior miners I recommended for my Real Wealth Report members — who just yesterday grabbed gains of 46.4 and 61.3% …

Like gold, I have been waiting for what I call the truth serum to come … that first major pullback that shakes out all the initial weak long positions …

And where the savvy investors back up the trucks to pile the precious metals on, and, the very best of the best mining shares.

That day is coming. Gold and the other precious metals noted above are now in pullback and consolidation modes. Their next legs up are going to be like a three-stage rocket, blasting gold, for example, to well above $1,400.

And for mining shares: Mark my words: If you think the recent rally was strong, you haven’t seen anything. Once miners pullback and hold support per my neural net artificial intelligence forecast model here of the GDX …

AI Forecast Chart for GDX

Then the next leg up for miners will unfold, and I expect it to triple the index’s value from the lows, more than tripling your money — in a short period of time, as little as three months.

Longer-term, miners will outperform gold, silver, oil, tech stocks, blue chips … and just about any other sector or asset class you can imagine.

It is and will be by far, the most profitable sector to trade and invest in, going forward.

More money, no, more FORTUNES, will be made in miners than any other sector.

But wait for my signals. Do not buy now. Instead, trade like a pro and buy the first major pullback. That’s how you slash your risk and dramatically multiply your profit potential.

Best wishes and stay tuned …

Larry

P.S. This rare, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity is only possible because western governments, the world’s biggest banks and Internet billionaires are all doing their level best to eliminate cash from the global economy … and FORCE all business transactions to be conducted electronically with bank debit cards, Paypal, Google Wallet, Apple Pay, and other electronic payment systems. I am calling this the War on Cash! Click here now to see how you can profit from this trend! 

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 68

Aj April 27, 2016

Just two points: In November 2015 you urged everyone to buy gold as the bottom was in, ahead of other commodities. ( which was correct) If you didn't suggest that then you missed an over 100% move in the HUI and a 20% move in gold and silver.

Charles April 27, 2016

Larry, What I cannot understand is that you see an upside in gold to $5,000 and a downside to maybe $1,180 and yet despite this incredible upside to downside ratio you are focussing on the limited downside. In my experience any asset with this upside potential compared to limited downside risk is a screaming BUY. Focus on the big picture and don't sweat the small stuff?

paul April 29, 2016

Are you say that gold mining stocks like JNUG are going way back down over the next month and how far What number to look for.

Stephen April 30, 2016

Spot on Charles. Now that the Shanghai Fix is in and Deutsche Bank has been fined US$5Billion for manipulating gold, why would you have debt-backed fiat currency in the bank waiting for gold to get $100 cheaper. Of the 180,000 tonnes of above ground gold there may be only a few thousand tonnes that is available for constant churning by traders and speculators. Now that China has a very large unannounced hoard of gold it doesn't care how much the price goes up while it vacuums up the last remaining tonnes... How hard will it be to buy gold when there is no offer?

JITENDRA April 27, 2016

What are Gold & Mining shares Symbols? If you have list, email me soon Thanks Jitendra

sawbuck April 28, 2016

GDX & GDXJ. Check them out!

VPC April 28, 2016

ABX, SLW

Karin April 27, 2016

Thank you for sharing your charts. And, I don't think you are the only one expecting a pullback for gold. I've seen others saying the same thing. But who can tell the future? If it were a sure thing, why even bother trying to figure out probable scenarios? I find your charts very interesting and wonder if you could make them a bit bigger, or possible to resize. This may not be a problem for anybody else, but I have a laptop with a small screen and I'm getting old. Even with my reading glasses on I have difficulties seeing the dates. Thanks for your report. Interesting times ahead! Karin

F151 April 27, 2016

Numbers on the charts would help too!!!!

Liam April 27, 2016

Karin, I'm 26 and I'm squinting to see the peak and bottom date labels. Good call.

john April 27, 2016

Larry Will watch with interest ! I have already bought gold plus miners ! Are you saying gold and miners will go lower than their bottom over the last 3 months ? John

Bill C. April 27, 2016

Hi Larry, I have been following your advise for 7 years now and have benefited greatly. I think the biggest obstacle early on in my investing, career and is probably the same for most investors, is controlling emotions. When you watch the markets every day it's extremely hard to fight the desire to buy or sell. I did lose a lot early on but over time I learned discipline and to follow your signals. I thank you for teaching me the right way to invest. I'm gaining more every year and will stay with Real Wealth Report for the long term.

Sohail April 27, 2016

Yes i can confirm as a real wealth Subscriber that those claims on nailing gains of 46.4 and 61 % are genuine.

Peter April 27, 2016

Larry people are making great money day trading PM junior miners. Some of the daily swings are 10 % . Why pour cold water on it ???

Ken Loch April 27, 2016

Larry, Thanks for a great article. I enjoy your writing and your analysis. I currently have a decent position in miners and gold and am considering selling some now, in-front of the pull-back, or conversly, just holding steady through the pull-back. My question concerns the peak of the model's trend vs the actual price trend. Seems reality is about 2 months behind the model. That being the case, why do you still see the bottom at the end of May or early June? Why don't you think is will shift a few months further out as well? What is driving the model to stick to that timeframe? Is there some event predicting the bottom of the pullback, like a Federal Reserve Board meeting or something? Thank you Larry, Ken Loch

$1,000 gold™ April 27, 2016

not everyone thinks you're dead wrong about gold, larry. you've been right about a lot of things besides gold too.

$1,000 gold™ April 27, 2016

...but i think you're wrong about gold going to $5,000. i doubt gold even sees the highs set in 2011.

$1,000 gold™ April 27, 2016

i guess i'm going to have to update my firmware.

Harold Decker April 27, 2016

If the dollar and stock market are supposed to crash under the massive load or Debt( according to financial pundits), why is gold a poor investment.

Sandor April 27, 2016

Thanks for the tip! Have you adjusted your forecast of July 2014 that says gold will be $5000/silver $125 by 2017? Has the bear market been longer than expected?

John April 27, 2016

Then, with the above forecast, was it to early to invest in GGN?

Dave S. April 27, 2016

I was wondering the same, as GGN follows gold stocks. The one major difference is the stupendous yield, which makes GGN a lot more enticing.

Malcolm April 27, 2016

Thanks Larry ,but what are the low targets for the other three precious metals you mention

Steven April 27, 2016

Hi Larry, I have been a long term supporter of your real wealth report and enjoy the regular read. I am UK based and do not want to consider currency risk of investing in USD denominated stocks. Do you have any recommendations for GBP denominated stocks. For instance, when I purchase FCX on your recommendation I also purchased Lonmin Plc which is a platinum group metals producer in South Africa. I fortunately made a killing on that one and am now out again. Is was more luck that diligent research. Any UK stock recommendations would be most welcome. I do not expect you to offer entry and exist levels or anything. Just any that could perform in line with your other US based plays. Thank you very much.

Chuck Burton April 27, 2016

Larry, I don't have your technical knowledge, but my observations of the charts lead me to generally agree with you about gold. One thing, though: most miners hedged their production during gold's decline, usually at prices not much above their production costs. Most of those hedges are still in effect, and will hold down company profits when gold takes off, or could even cause them to lose money. How can we find out about those hedges, allowing us to avoid the miners most affected?

cindy April 27, 2016

Ever heard the expression the "majority are always wrong" I can sense this happening here. Everyone has been waiting for gold to bottom and back up the truck waiting for the demise of the Roman empire - America. Don't forget all Bernanke had to do was QE and 2008 great depression was fixed - amazing what you can do with computers today vs when Rome fell that didn't have the type of technology we have today. Just saying rule of thumb - don't bet against America. People will be backing up the truck only to find gold at $700 a few years from now - what a sight that will be to see. Remember the majority are always wrong!

Doug April 27, 2016

Cindy this point also crossed my mind. I'm thinking the coming hottest sector will be in health care - just think of all the retiring baby boomers that will need old age services. You'd think the aging population will have a dramatic impact. And no one is talking about it.....yet - until it happens. Indeed majority are always wrong.

Hank April 27, 2016

Hi Cindy, are you a Jim Dent fan?

Hank April 27, 2016

I meant Harry Dent-lol

Joe April 27, 2016

Do you work on Wall Street? And do you believe the lies of the US govt and media? I don't know if Larry is right, and I have no idea when the USSA (aka Rome 2.0) will crumble. But crumble it will.

David C. April 27, 2016

Cindy. A good point and a lot of Newsletters have been forecasting a collapse for months if not years in stocks, however, the majority are usually wrong only at major turning points, not all the time.

george stewart April 27, 2016

Larry- Regarding gold and silver, were you using your ‘ neural net artificial intelligence’ when you stated in your August 2013 Real Wealth report (which I subscribed to at that time) “there’s no question in my mind that now is the time to start reinvesting”? You have been pushing back your predictions for a ‘bottom’ in the metals by several months at a time- for almost 3 years now- the latest being the end of May, this year. I’m not critical of a missed call- no one can time it precisely- but I don’t think you can rightly claim to have “never missed a major turning point” as you just stated again today. Respectfully- George Stewart

J. Shannon April 30, 2016

Yeah, George. I had to sell the truck I backed up with to straighten out my finances(LOL). Thank God I didn't fully back up the truck when I purchased back then. No one can predict the future but the use of this "back up the truck" terminology is a bit over the top. I will say that Larry's analysis is better than most.

John S. April 27, 2016

Called the low for gold in Nov.??? What happened to his calls of gold bottoming in Jan. at $980? Between his good calls and his bad calls I'm maybe even money wise. I do respect Larry or I wouldn't subscribe to his letters but none of these financial writers really stand out - at the best they make educated guesses. What bothers me is they all make exaggerated claims of successful calls but overlook or deny their losers. Larry is good at both but no worse than the others.

joel b. April 27, 2016

I have learned from experience it is always wise to listen to Larry... just closed all my long PM positions

Peter April 30, 2016

you must be regreting that already !!! Why did you not just use trailing stop ??

Richard S April 27, 2016

There are certainly Black Swan events that I think could alter at least short term markets. I suspect that there also could be White Swan events and reading between the lines of Donald Trumps' ideas, he is looking at all of government on a chopping block not merely Medicare and Social security as the Rove types and Hillary repeatedly have mentioned for steep cuts. On that path of Sanders, Hillary, and all the establishment Republicans the country will surely go down the same path as ALL the other failed Empires. A failed state like Russia was, Argentina, others too like Germany in the 30s and of course Rome. So Larry's projected history is expected to be probably right. The major reason for failure is governments getting too big, too costly, too overbearing on regulation. That I see, right now, here! Taxes too high, Government trying to regulate everything and look at the economy sinking slowly. No recovery! Ask the job hunters. Look at the closed stores in the malls. Sears and Kmart just announced big store closings soon. Does that look prosperous? Stores like those just don't close. They can take entire malls into bankruptcy. Suppose he does chop out the punitive regulations, the useless and frequently oppressive agencies that make up their own regs on you, Shift resources to productive ventures like mining, oil and gas, Rebuilding power grids, fixing bridges, rebuilding our Military, getting the corruption weeded out and he wont have inept party organizers heading up agencies and cabinet. And maybe more important is the selection of Supreme court justices that abide by the constitution and don't write their own law as some have done recently. Fixing the trade deals as only a guy like him can do, and of course providing a secure USA. That in itself will be a very big plus in my book. With all the activity and job creation, revenues will increase and the debt bubble might actually be reduced. This is the White Swan event that might put Larry's forecast on a hold and maybe a turn around. Suppose we could get a 28th constitutional amendment that doesn't call for a mere balanced budget which doesn't solve much, but consider a CAP on all Federal spending including the full cost of any mandates whether funded or not to 16% of GDP as calculated using the formulas of pre year 2000 with no manipulation or other corruption of the numbers. Plus give him a max of 4 years of time to get there. This could Truly be the one thing that would break the cycle of nations starting, growing and busting as many previous empires have done..

G13Man April 27, 2016

they will do to TRUMP what they did to Carter they will not help any thing for the average Joe ! but then we will at least know who else to vote out !

Larry U May 8, 2016

Richard S's citation of White Swan possibilities is a bull's eye, maybe even more than at first appears. Why do elite powerful interests controlling the Republican Party risk letting Hillary win the White House by not supporting front-runner Donald Trump, even trashing him in public to boot? Has Donald bypassed enough elite Rep. leaders who traditionally chose their party's presidential nominee, according to the power of special interest money, to nullify said power? Would crony capitalism continue to give perks and make multimillionaires out of the party elite regardless of who wins the presidential election? Do the Rub. elite and banks too big to fail fear that Trump would halt the ceaseless, disastrous wars thus reduce the free money that fills the coffers of big banks? Is trump popular with voters but not the Republican elite who exercise imperial overreach the nation can no longer afford? Just thinking.

Jim April 27, 2016

Yogi Berra: "It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future." Edelson is right most of the time. That's all you can ask for. Jim

$1,000 gold™ April 27, 2016

often enough, anyway.

John S. April 27, 2016

One thing I have learned following Larry's advice - whether he says to buy or sell you should wait one to two days and you will get a better price - 80% of the time. He might get the direction right but his timing is usually terrible.

Bob C. April 27, 2016

The Charts are great road maps.... Please put "PRICE" on Right or left... Better yet,, Price and grid would be very helpful... Keep up the good work.. Bob

Irby Ford April 27, 2016

I am going to set up a $50,000 account to follow your advice. I do not understand the economy. Home building is going on like there is no tomorrow. My clients are losing their jobs and are unable to replace them without taking a major cut in income. Tax appraisals just came out indicating major tax increases Interesting times.

David April 27, 2016

Gpl up 300 percent in 2 months,brizf up 200 percent in 2 months no need to be maytag man...if scared sell your initial investment and go for a free ride...

Joe April 27, 2016

Larry, you have insisted that gold and silver are not manipulated markets. How do you explain the recent admissions by big banks that they have indeed manipulated those markets?

Peter April 27, 2016

Hello Larry, I have been following you for years and believe you are at the top in calling shots for gold! Invested in the relic of the barbarians back in 2001 around $270 oz and have never looked back. I have an issue though as I also have been looking into the war on cash and at several investments therein related to cryptocurrencies, bitcoin etc, however, I am already a paid subscriber and would like to compare my notes with yours--- why do we not have access to this info?

Tony April 27, 2016

So 100 points downside and 3700 points upside...I'm backing up the truck now. Buying Perseus mining, Great Panther Silver GPL, GDX, SLW, SAND, FirstMining Finance and Oceanagold.....this is the best list I've managed to put together for a diversified and stellar upside....t

Scott April 28, 2016

Go to kitco.com check out the mining stocks listed for the day. Then look at there charts on stockcharts. com and compare. Also look at FCM & hmy. Hmy has corrected but when it reverses then you might have an opportunity. Any stock that is above the 50sma you only consider going bullish. And below the 50sma only consider bearish.

Big Peter April 27, 2016

Hi, Larry, thx for sharing this analysis with us even though I believe you are deadly wrong this time. LOL

Simon April 27, 2016

The AUST gold stocks started to move approx Aug 2015. I bought, sold, got mentally tricked, read your report more recently...sold in caution...... I figure this is W1 up and it is strong. Stocks have risen 200% some 400%+ Each pull back is short and bought.. The leading stocks are making money even at $1200US an oz and I'm doubting if any w2 retracement will be more than a sideways triangle rather than a 32% - 50% retracement. So $1160 an oz may have little impact on the stocks.

Peter April 30, 2016

you must be kidding. 1160 not impact stocks ??? they will die

Big Peter April 27, 2016

Larry, as an investor who had made millions of $, I have to say that you are making a big mistake here. before I talk about your mistake, I have to say you are the only creditable consultant I have found so far on gold. your correct forecast of the top of gold at 1900$ level is outstanding. I can understand your desire to help investors globally at current situation. but here are some of the thoughts of mine regarding global economy? Technical models or technical models are all lagging indicators, this is basic for any pros. meaning unless a trend has formed, then you can predict certain trend accordingly. currenttly gold is moving in box ranging from 1200$ to 1280$. if your model tells me gold is pulling back to 1180$ level will be joke as there is no solid breakthough of the box range. other things, it's basic that the stock price is based on what is the forecast of majority of the investors instead of what already happened. here are the questions or risks of the global economy: I just copy/paste some of the risks commented from Jacob Rothschild. : what will happen in China? all the risks we have been talking about? : what about europe, any wild swan events may happen? :What about Japan, what will the desperate Japanese govenrment do ? : what about oil price, why oil is reaching 3 month high here? too many more out there??? Larry, as an investor who made millions in last round of bull gold market in 2009, this is my kind advice for you. Market is rigged for now and always. sometimes we are wrong no matter what is in our mind or how strong we believe we are right on sth. to make this comment is not bragging about my success, that is very stupid. I really hope you can take some negative inputs. I really hope you can improve and become a star ! Help your clients making a lot of money and help yourself to make a fortune as well! thx, Peter

$1,000 gold™ April 28, 2016

according to larry's prediction, i need to change my name from $1,000 gold™ to $5,000 gold™, na.

Mike April 30, 2016

You could be on to something.

dale k. April 28, 2016

If Larry called the bottom in Gold then he should have been SCREAMING recos. I bought calls on RGLD when it was in the low 30's. Now THAT's what Larry should have been SCREAMING for all of you to do!! I have other newsletters that have been SCREAMING GOLD, GOLD , and more GOLD. Guess what ? I don't believe them either! I simply dollar cost average into it. Treat it just like INSURANCE. I couldn't care less whether gold takes off. Sorry , I will NEVER back up the truck. But buy regularly ? yep . little bit at a time. I believe in balance. some land, some cash, some gold and YES some common stocks, positions both long and short. And I sleep at nite.

Manny April 28, 2016

Larry you are a great man for sharing such incredible predictions. Love your columns and as an investor since 1995 I am eager to be part of the greatest shift of wealth on earth that's upon us soon.

jim April 28, 2016

larry i am a day trader in the es ym and nq as well as being a gold bug have traded since the 70's these markets humble the best of traders, its not unusual to make a forecast and it backfires on you.your forecast on the miners i believe wrong i know what you are looking for the W formation on the daily charts as it is a very strong indication of further strength.However a V formation is stronger and that's what we have been getting.every gold stock and silver stock is up 300 to 700 % have u seen jnug when u called the low in feb that stock has jumped from 20 bucks to150 in 2mths and the options are so expensive now unaffordible and a 60% retracement isn't going to allow your subscribers to get on board at a low risk entry gpl is the same. i bought at .43 and exited on your call that we get a pullback and gpl was on your 10 stocks to immediately sell. wow larry dont believe i will ever have another chance to buy at under a dollar.that's just my opinion hope you are right and i am wrong but i look at it this way.at the end of the day with all the crap that is going on around the world what do u want to own. you did inform readers u thought the low was in and you were right. blood was running in the streets on the miners and appears they have bottomed..larry at what point would you be willing to say my model is wrong and we r going higher? I do believe in you. thanks for all of your advice.

Lie April 28, 2016

Dear Larry, I don't know where to buy and sell stocks in online, please give me a reccomendation, because i haven't buy the stocks that you recommend me before. I don't understand that US Dollars could be fall significantly, so what factor that can affect the gold pullback, meanwhile Japan have decided that their negative interest rate don't change. Based on that fact, aren't you over confident because you are contra flow? I appreciate any respond, Thank you Friday, 29-04-2016 09:00 AM

James April 28, 2016

What does impunity mean? Is that a new word that been added to the Oxford Dictionary.

romano April 29, 2016

Dear Larry, you predict a strong bull market for gold, but this bull market will start, in your opinion, soon and we will have first a healthy ' last' correction in May.Well I am naif may be, but for LONG TIME INVESTORS, if gold will hit 5000 us within 2020, WHAT DIFFERENCE WILL IT MAKE IF THEY WILL HAVE BOUGHT AT, LET'S SAY,1160 OR 1270????If we buy now and you will be right, the profit will still be huge.If we buy now and you will be wrong (and by this i mean: if the bull market has already started), the profit will be even bigger...So WHY DO NOT SIMPLY BUY NOW AND RELAX?????......Greetings ,R.Baldi

nyles April 29, 2016

Gold futures close this friday above 1275 do we consider this a positive that the rise in price is on the move

Adrian April 29, 2016

Larry, I read your reports, love them, but i do feel we may be reaching an inflection point with this crisis. Technically the dollar is starting too crash. It does make sense, with the level of national debt, plus the fact so many countries hold U.S debt. We have to be alert to this because when the bust comes it will likely come "like a thief in the night".

Ken April 30, 2016

Let's consider a hypothetical. With China and a lot of other countries aggressively buying actual gold wouldn't returning to the gold standard and setting it at 10k an ounce be sufficient to wipe out all their debt?

Tony April 30, 2016

1293.7 and rising fast. I believe that the buyers of the last three months are trying to get in, ahead of the Gold price rise and are buying the miners and streamers in anticipation of seeing Gold go much higher. The miners have risen massively compared to spot Gold, this is, I believe, a result of the anticipated gearing available. I agree with Larry that there is no scenario that doesn't see Gold at well over 5000 within a few years. For exponential upside I'm buying, GDX,SLW,SAND,GPL,PRU,FFM,OCG,tc

chris May 1, 2016

Hi Larry, I doubt that this pullback will really come in the short term.The pressure to buy even on little dips seems quite big.I think there will be a pullback from much higher Levels.

Andrew May 3, 2016

Hi Larry, I am new to all this, I am trying my hand at binary for call/put, reading your chart the gold will go down end of May so I thought I Put on the gold to see if you are correct. Hope to make some money, still learning the binary market, try to make some money in the future.

Bob May 24, 2016

Again, thinking that what happened in the past will make something happen a certain way in the future, is nothing more than wishful thinking. When u flip a coin ten times u might get ten heads or ten tails in a row. But not likely, pretty low odds. Most likely you'll come up with 5 of each. If u flip it 100 times, the odds are millions to one you will get 100 heads or 100 tails. Most likely 50 heads & 50 tails. The prospect of gold going up or down at the end of may is the same senario, 50/50. Yes the things that effect gold for the good are becoming more and more favorable right now but it might not happen for years months or days. Then there's the remote possibility of things changing for the worse for gold. So gold $35 or $5000? Who can really say?