Must-Have Info on Miners!

… I’m hot on the trail of my first mining share recommendations in years. But mark my words: You simply can’t run out and buy any mining share or any group of miners these days.

Some will thrive, but many of today’s mining companies are on a path to self-destruction, even as gold and silver prices get ready to soar again.

There are a lot of reasons why. Chief among them are bad management, too much debt, production costs too high, the threat of rising interest rates and, amazingly, many miners think gold and silver are back in a bear market so they are starting to hedge their production and reserves and resources by selling forward again.

Some mining stocks will thrive, but choosing which ones will be the big challenge.

Imagine that. Say you’re a mining company with a modest 3 million ounces of gold reserves, or mineable gold. When gold hit its record high at $1,920 in September 2011, that gold was worth $5.76 billion.

Today it’s worth $3.22 billion. The gold has lost $2.54 billion of market value, or 44.1%.

It’s fallen so much that the price of gold is now near your total cost of production, at say $1,000 an ounce. You have virtually no gross profit margin left.

So you’re worried gold may fall further, below the cost of production. If that happens, it will certainly put you out of business.

Your inclination then is to hedge the value of your gold, so that if gold prices fall further, you’ve locked in its current price and you’re ok, or so you think.

And instead of cutting costs, making your mine more efficient, you go ahead and hedge your gold, selling 30,000 futures contracts of 100 ounces of gold per contract against your 3 million ounces.

But then, instead of falling further, gold explodes higher. Guess what happens next?

Instead of making money on your gold production, instead of seeing your resource values go up and your profit margin go up on the ounces produced …

You’ve locked in a tiny profit margin — BUT you start to get margin calls on your 30,000 futures contracts that you sold short as a hedge. A margin call will eat into your cash, a precious asset to a miner, since it’s such a cash and capital intensive business.

“A margin call will eat into your cash, a precious asset to a miner.”

Yet the price of gold continues higher and you have to keep funding the margin calls. It doesn’t take long.

You’re now pouring so much cash into your hedges, you’re having trouble making day-to-day expenses, like payroll, rent, equipment maintenance, employee health insurance, debt payments and more.

So what do you do next? You don’t want to be exposed to the vagaries of the swings in the gold market, so you keep your hedges in place.

But you need capital, so you go borrow more from your bank, or, you talk to your investment banker and you offer more shares to the public to raise capital.

Fine, you get your capital. But if it’s debt, you now have more debt on your balance sheet, which is just going to cost you more and more as interest rates rise.

And if you opted for equity instead, the new share offering simply dilutes down the value of your existing equity and shareholders, and that has its price too.

Bottom line: You essentially turned your business into one that’s supposed to profit from a rising gold price …

… Into one that doesn’t profit at all, and instead, barely survives — but only if the price of gold is falling!

So you see, it’s not all that easy to run out and buy mining shares these days. As beaten up as they are — with many having lost more than 90% of their value — in the last four years …

Many will get beaten up even more as gold and silver move back into renewed bull markets.

Stay safe and best wishes,

Larry

P.S. Did you miss my NEW report? It’s titled “The Great Commodity Supercycle of 2015-2021” and could prove to be the most profitable report you read all year.

It’s free. There’s no obligation, no strings attached — and it could make you very, very rich.

Hurry — click this link to read it now!

Other Developments of the Day

BulletNo war: Turkey and Russia promised not to go to war over the downing of a Russian fighter jet. Still, Turkey’s NATO allies and others were wondering why, when minor violations of airspace are relatively common and usually tolerated, the Turks decided to risk a serious confrontation with Moscow by taking military action. Here’s a link to a New York Times story on the issue.

BulletAttack thwarted? French authorities say another attack could have been hours away when police closed in on the suspects’ hideaway outside of Paris last week. Suspected ringleader Abdelhamid Abaaoud and another man were planning a suicide attack on the Paris financial district of La Defense on Nov. 18 or 19, the Paris prosecutor said Tuesday. Both men were killed during a raid in Saint-Denis before the attack could be carried out.

BulletMostly calm: Large but mostly peaceful protesters took to the streets overnight after the release of video that showed the fatal shooting of a black teenager by a white Chicago police officer. The protests came after the officer, Jason Van Dyke, was charged with first-degree murder in the shooting of Laquan McDonald, 17. The dashboard camera video shows the young man running and walking past officers in the middle of the street, then spinning and falling to the ground when bullets suddenly strike him. He moves briefly while on the ground but then is still after he appears to be shot several more times.

BulletWhoops: On-line retailer Amazon.com sent out an unknown number of emails warning customers that the passwords on their accounts may have been “improperly stored (on customer devices) or transmitted to Amazon in a way that could potentially expose it to a third party.” Customer emails were then reset by Amazon, which led affected users to a page on the site where they could change the password to one of their choice.

Best wishes for a safe and enjoyable Thanksgiving.

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 71

Chuck Burton November 25, 2015

Larry, if you have an idea of what miners might fit the requirements for good investments (other than the two mentioned in the recent RWR) please let RWR subscriber know, so that we can make decisions for ourselves. I need to study the companies for myself, not just blindly follow your "instructions". You aren't giving your subscribers credit for being intelligent investors. I, for one, have nearly cancelled RWR a couple of times for this reason. 'Sorry to be so publicly critical, but you need to know what some of us think. Otherwise, I wish you, and everyone, a Happy Thanksgiving

Chuck Burton November 25, 2015

Other companies, also.

Craig Bradley November 25, 2015

CHUCK: START "SINGING LIKE A CANARY" HERE Please divulge the two gold mining companies recommended in Larry's subscription newsletter (RWR) to us through the comment section here. You are not obliged to honor confidentiality if you don't want to. The most that could be done about it is to cancel your subscription (for you). Sounds like that is about to happen one way or the other anyway. So, by "spilling the beans" on this blog, you may get Larry's undivided attention and prod him to give subscribers more background or rationale on his investment recommendations. As a subscriber, you are entitled to "customer service". If you don't get it, then "sing like a canary". Unlike the Mafia, Nobody can hit you for it. So, you have little to lose over it.

Chuck Burton November 25, 2015

Sorry, Craig, if you really want Larry's recos, you should pay for them like I did.

Steven Pierce November 26, 2015

I agree!!!

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

CHUCK BURTON THE CHICKEN-MAN Then stop complaining about Larry's Paid newsletter. This blog is for his free articles published on the internet . You should take up your content related complaints with Larry directly and not here. Quit being a crybaby and man-up. Sorry if the truth hurts.

Joe Vasquez November 25, 2015

Thank you for the article on the Miners Delema with regards to trading and buying stock. Very informative. I was not aware there was so much "Cause and Effect" involved, that's an ignorance on my part hence I read your articles helping to make more sense of this interesting world of the Commodities...

Chuck Burton November 25, 2015

Getting back to Mike L's, thread, it is not just a matter of so much low grade debt, overhanging the markets. I read, elsewhere, that in the third quarter, with 96% of companies reporting, profits of the S&P 500 companies have declined by some $25 Billion. Also, while personal income rose by .4%, in Oct., personal spending only rose .1%. People are maybe battening the hatches, and looking for a bit of a blow. If holiday spending disappoints, the storm may be on our doorsteps.

cliff November 25, 2015

What has happened with your take on the stock market at large.?.where do you think that's going and when....? I've shorted Germany and EPV into 1st qtr. ,but so far no good! If I had enough money I try sup cycle but will have to limp along with RWR. Happy thanksgiving to you and yours and god bless. Cliff

LARRY MELTON November 25, 2015

Some years back there was a list of gold miners that did not sell derivatives against their future Gold or Silver production. Where can we obtain such a list today?? THANK YOU LARRY MELTON

David K. November 25, 2015

I know you do not agree with Harry Dent but I was wondering what your reaction would be to his latest letter where he predicts Gold at $250. I include a paragraph from this letter. "In short, inflation is not the threat. Deflation is. With the largest, global financial asset and debt bubble in recorded history, when this goes belly up, trillions of dollars are going to disappear overnight, like magic… now you see it, now you don’t! That’s not only going to strengthen the dollar, it’s going to create a massive wave of deflation and the destruction of gold."

Craig Bradley November 25, 2015

PRICE DIVERSION IN PAPER vs. PHYSICAL GOLD MARKETS My view is gold could decline further in the short term, possibly to $1,000/ ounce. If it does, I will pounce. It won't matter to investors if gold goes below $1,000/ounce or the "all-in" cost for a operating gold mine. After that, gold and silver coins dealers will just bump-up the premiums added to the spot price of gold coins to protect their supply as retail demand skyrockets. This is exactly what happened last Fall to silver after the price dropped unexpectedly to $14.00/ounce from $18.00/ounce as the U.S. Dollar strengthened. In fact, the U.S. Mint has run out of 1 oz. Silver Eagles on several occasions in the face of much higher retail and dealer demand accompanied by very tight supplies of silver. Physical Gold pricing is expected to respond similarly if the spot price takes a rapid dive. It really does not matter what the price of gold or silver is in the paper markets ( COMEX or GLD or SLV). Paper and physical precious metals markets are entirely different ( different supply-demand dynamics). For one thing, demand for physical gold or silver delivery remains very strong globally. Supplies of the real thing are tight, as vs. unlimited in the paper gold and silver markets. Most investors don't get this. Is a glaring price diversion at times. ( Red Flag).

Angelo November 25, 2015

One Two years ago RWR issues I remember some names SA KGR IAG RGLD , can we still trust ? Thank you

Craig Bradley November 25, 2015

WAR OR PEACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST ? I suspect the Turkish camera crew that captured the recent shooting down of a Russian fighter plane had been given a heads-up beforehand. They just happened to be situated and had their cameras in place and rolling exactly when the action started. Set-up or coincidence? Furthermore, the timing is very suspect, as well. The Turkish government is having corruption problems, economic problems, and faces the very real prospect of a debt default in the near future. So, a War between NATO with Russia is an easy way to hide or distract from deeper, more serious problems inside Turkey. War sure would be the easy way out for their politicians. Historically, its a tried and true technique used by desperate governments the world over. To get the whole story, you have to look beyond the headlines and beyond the obvious. Most publications (and readers) are too stupid or intellectually lazy to do so, or want to manipulate their readers to see it their way ( support a NATO War against Putin and Russia). That would be a costly mistake for NATO, Europe, and especially, the United States. It could happen sooner or later. What would be the effect on U.S. Markets if we LOST a war, or were seen as taking heavy casualties and retreated? The public might not support it for long, if they do at all. Then our dollar would tank as global confidence in America dissolved. Everything could come to a head and rapidly unravel for US. This scenario remains a distinct possibility in our future, just waiting for America to take the bait. All we need is one more incompetent President to make our day. So, vote wisely, while you still can.

Phil November 25, 2015

So are you saying don't vote for a hothead like Trump. Is he the "one more incompetent President" after Bush?

Chuck Burton November 25, 2015

Trump seems to believe, like the NAZI propaganda minister, Joseph Goebbels, that if you tell a lie often enough, people will come to believe it is truth.

Jaro Barvik November 25, 2015

Can be anybody more incompetent than empty suit Obama? Oh yea Hilary would qualify! Do not vote on issues but on philosophy, means conservative, that is all what matter. As to Larry's report he doesn't want to give us those companies to make sure everything would bottom. Otherwise lot of us would start buying add prices would skyrocket for the moment. Remember KGC on Feb 2014? that's what was happening. I'd like to have it now as well but I am not buying his super cycle, he is not that good.

Jim November 26, 2015

I heard the Trump phenomena summed up well tonight. "It's not that I like the idea of Trump being President, but that I would like someone like him." Jim

Steven Pierce November 26, 2015

Hmmmmm. We lost the war in Vietnam and Iraq and we are losing in Syria and Afghanistan.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

Chuck: Consider the old adage: "People who live in glass houses should not throw rocks" You live in a "glass house" yourself, so I suggest you stop throwing "rocks", least one find its way on your little head. Just a suggestion.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

THE COLD TRUTH ABOUT THE VOTERS In the end, the American voters will ONLY elect the "average" candidate to the Presidency. It happens that way EVERY time too. This pattern happens repeatedly because the average voter's collective intelligence quotient (I.Q.) is no higher than 100. Similarly so with the average internet user or reader (here). Once again, so sorry (about that). The truth thing. Someone has to say it.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

CHUCK'S TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES Yea, but Chuck thinks so, or is afraid of consequences if he admits it ( stupidity issue). Another adage: " A fool and his money will soon be parted". ( Old Proverb). This saying applies especially to subscribers who pay thousands of dollars in subscriptions for advice they could just as easy think-out independently and on their own. The internet is rich with information, both useless gossip and good data or facts. In the end, you still have to do your own analysis or due diligence. What's more, to make a net profit, you must make the equivalent on your trades (after taxes) of what you first pay-out in subscriptions and other expenses to obtain someone else's recommendations before you can even break even. No free lunches, as they say. That's life in the sausage factory.

Chuck Burton November 26, 2015

You are correct, Craig, and what I was saying to Larry, above, is that he is free to recommend a trade, but he needs to give us reasons to believe it is a good one. Of course, we are free to try and dig out the information ourselves, if we choose. He may have info we can't easily find, though, and it would be good if he would share it. Otherwise his letter is of minimal help, and we may choose to abandon it.

$1,000 gold November 25, 2015

if i were a gold miner, i'd think about finding another line of work.

Craig Bradley November 25, 2015

GOOD AS IT GETS FOR GOLD BUYERS ? $1,000/ounce Gold is not yet a reality. I doubt you can buy any gold coins from a dealer at that price and take delivery, should it become a reality. Premiums will be added on to each coin boosting the price back to what it currently is, about $1100.0/ounce. The retail price for physical gold will likely freeze around $1,000/ounce. So, it won't matter if the paper price of gold goes substantially lower, even to $800.00, as some forecasters or analysts maintain. The demand for physical bullion and coins is very strong globally under current supplies and would tighten considerably at lower paper prices ( spot price). In addition, shortages would likely develop in that event.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

before this is over, you'll be able to buy gold eagles for less than $1,000. i don't care what larry says.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

gold likely has at least a couple more years before it reaches a bottom. but i'll happily take profits on my shorts now if i'm wrong.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

GOLD PRICING ADJUSTS QUICKLY TO SUPPLY/DEMAND Available supplies of gold products for retail buyers of gold and silver coins will tighten-up considerably once the spot price ( on paper) declines to $1,000/ounce or below. Primary Dealers will quickly impose much higher premiums on purchases to protect their supplies so they don't sell out of gold products quite as quickly. Therefore, the price of gold eagles will effectively be "frozen" around $1,000/ounce for retail buyers of coins and such. So, you may as well by now or never at current prices. Waiting for a steal is no deal because you will pay the same after premiums are added onto your purchase price. The price of paper versions of gold or silver such as the COMEX, GLD or SLV bare little resemblance to the pricing and market dynamics of the physical gold market, where supplies are already pretty tight globally. Many investors here have not figured out this fundamental difference between paper gold and real gold in your hot little hands. One is real, the other exclusionary (false).

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

thanks for the explanation, craig. i've heard this many times before, but i've never heard this explained so well. time will tell if this theory is true. personally, i think the gold bull is over and physical gold will remain at about $1,000/ounce for decades to come, with some crazy volatility beforehand. ten years from now gold will be $800/ounce and you'll be able to buy all you want.

George white November 25, 2015

This reply is a reply to all of the above. Larry, I also would like to know who your watch list re gold miners etc. the scary thing is Dents prediction of 250 while not probably wise I have been bottom picking, very lightly two substantial miners, what is your reply to Dents prediction

Mike November 25, 2015

Gold needs to return to its former purpose as a measure of value. It really is not a commodity. It is thought that the value of the currency of any country is based on its economic strength but none of that gets off-set by the indebtedness of those countries. As more paper currency in any country is printed to cover budget shortfalls, the price of gold should react accordingly. It doesn't have to represent the basis for a monetary system, it merely needs to reflect value in terms of purchasing power. The more of anything you have, the less it is worth. There has been nothing else invented to represent a means to that end and this has been true for the last 5000 years.

Kevin Beck November 25, 2015

Larry: Would royalty companies be typically good investments at the bottom of the cycle? After all, they are usually the ones on the opposite end of the futures contracts that the miners are selling.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

FREE RECOMMENDATION FROM CRAIG Yes, a Gold Royalty + Streaming Company such as Franco-Nevada ( FNV) is a value and pays a nice dividend, as well. FNV uses cheap credit ( cheap dollars) to lock-in future production from existing gold mines. When the price of gold eventually goes up as the cycle turns, their revenue from these contracts should pay-off handsomely. Even better, they get paid in gold, not debased paper money. Can't beat that. I would suggest you start a small position now and add to it later on if the price happens to go down early next year. Just Keep an eye on it every day for trends you can see for yourself. Just remember, it pays to be a patient investor. Observe and Report !! Beware though, as this is a volatile stock with thin daily trading volume where daily moves of plus or minus 3.5 %-4.0% are fairly common in my observation. In addition, the stock exchanges are phasing out the use of Stop Loss orders and Good 'til cancelled orders beginning in Feb. 2016. The professional traders don't want you to have a level playing field. Gold pricing in the paper market ( COMEX) is known to be manipulated by the "bullion banks" ( U.S. member banks of the Federal Reserve Bank). I think independently and invest on my own, so I can not give any credit or acknowledgement to any publications from this site. Sorry about that, guys. Don't complain miss this slam-dunk. Some win, some lose. That's life in the city boys and girls.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

i have a gold dealer near me that buys for spot price on bullion and coins. sells at spot price on bullion. one ounce coins have a slight premium. smaller coins have a larger premium. these premiums are reasonable and have always been fixed. if bullion drops to $800/ounce, he'll sell it for $800/ounce. he been in business for decades.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

FAMILY BUSINESS What is his business e-mail address? Since he is a primary precious metals dealer ( the public can not buy directly from the U.S. Mint for "spot price" as they only sell to wholesalers). What is the name of your "friend's" business so I may place an order. No premium means he is selling at cost. Maybe its a "home business" where profits are not near as important as "being busy". Just a thought.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

when gold drops to $800/ounce. i'll check his prices and if he is still selling at spot price, i'll let you know.

Ray November 25, 2015

I would like more long term option reco's. Like the ones on GLD. Or possibly leaps. Also a list of miners, as I would to invest in more than you probably will reco. What about JNUG? I know you said some of the miner etf's might not be good. Am looking to make some big money, it seems like I have been waiting forever. Have been with you since your 1st newsletter.

Phil November 25, 2015

The problem is that Larry goes back and forth between short term drop-dead dates, and intermediate to long term prognostications. He was recruiting madly for his cycles service, with specific warnings that the market would crash on Oct. 12 or so. Since that hasn't happened, he is saying that his cycles research will roughly correspond to the market behavior, but exact dates (i.e., within a month or so) are out. So now everything he predicted is being pushed out to 2016. He also says gold will soar to $5000 in the not too distant future, but who knows when that might be. So trying to rely on Larry for options investments in a limited time frame is, in my opinion, a fool's mission. Sure, he cites investments that could have yielded 10 times your money (1000%), but I'll tell you that an easy call option investment in Amazon at the beginning of this year would have yielded 200 times your money (20,000%) by now. Hindsight is wonderfully easy; foresight, not so much.

Steven Pierce November 26, 2015

Everything is impermanent. Therefore, everything is uncertain. No one knows the future until it arrives. Your observation is right on, Phil.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

PHIL: Plenty of "fools" to be found right around here. Not too bright in too many instances. Ditto with the American voters in recent years. Millineals are especially known to be dull-witted or terribly uninformed, except about trivia such as what Justin Bieber is up to recently (gossip). They know those popular facts by rote like a baseball fan knows the batting averages of the leading major leaguers. "We all live in a Yellow Salon, Yellow Hair Salon, Yellow Salon. We all live in a Yellow....

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

THE OBAMA GENERATION "You pays your money and you takes your chances". No guarantees in life or investing. Hard lesson for some to learn. Potentially costly too. Instead, dare to be independently minded for a real change, if you can. Few are these days, I can see. Too bad for them. They need Nanny, they need the NANNY State. They need Hillary Clinton to "take care of them". ( My IRA, ObamaCare, EBT, etc.).

Jim November 25, 2015

I may live to regret it, but I bought some Freeport McMoRan today. Outstanding assets, some exposure to oil and gas as well as copper and gold. Carl Icahn has bought eight per cent of the stock and their bonds are not selling at much of a discount. Tight stop though! Jim

Chuck Burton November 25, 2015

FCX looks interesting to me also, Jim. That big Papua copper, gold mine should pay off hugely if the commodities recover as predicted, but the Gulf of M oil play may never be a big factor, at least in the few years I presume remain for me at my age.

Jim November 25, 2015

Their timing on the oil & gas play couldn't have been worse. If their geology team, The Three Musketeers, are right about the prolific Wilcox formation extending well into the Gulf it could be huge. At this point it certainly is not something to bank on, it's just a kicker. They do own some of the best copper and gold deposits in the world. If the commodity bust continues they will still probably survive making them a real winner in the long run. I forget which guru said it, but when dealing with commodities you are a contrarian or you are broke. Jim

Robert P November 25, 2015

Jim: FCX looks like it may be a good one, especially if you have awhile for it to develop. Looks like it may do the see-saw thing for a period of time before it makes any real move. Just curious...do you have a price target in mind?

Jim November 25, 2015

I think you are exactly right, it may take awhile. You do still get a 2 1/2 per cent dividend for the time being. I don't have a specific target. I'm just going to follow its action closely. Really, to me its a matter of a whole lot more upside potential than downside. Jim

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

contrary to what many people think, icahn is usually a long-term investor. i wouldn't expect to make a quick buck with carl.

Gordon November 26, 2015

This whole idea of paper gold and silver is a sham that governments go along with. According to Comex figures they only have one ounce of gold to cover 300 ounces of paper gold on average. If holders of paper gold start to redeem it look out. Governments go along with this paper gold crap because they and central banks want to create the impression that paper gold is no longer relevant in today's society. That it is an obsolete investment. Maybe gold is truly drowning in a sea of printed money. Everything is upside down in todays crazy world.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

before the commodities rout is over, i would expect to see consolidations across the board with only the large surviving and only handfuls of oil companies, mining companies, etc. remaining. this is what icahn sees in fcx.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

Will the U.S. Government eventually nationalize the remaining companies after the herd is thinned? Could be.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

i think it's safe to say the commodities bull is over. a consolidation will likely take place in oil with only a handful of large oil companies remaining, like chevron, exxon, shell, etc. they'll buy up the little guys who can't survive. that's the way these shakedowns go. same will likely happen in miners. that's what carl icahn sees. this is just the game he loves to play.

Chuck Burton November 26, 2015

Exxon should survive okay, and probably Chevron. Shell could be doubtful. They went heavily in debt to buy BG, I think it was, while their earnings fell, and now have to borrow more just to pay their dividends, so they don't scare investors even more. They can only keep that up for so long. They could be on the breakup block before it is all over.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

the commodities cycle will resume at some point, but it will be a long, slow, drawn out cycle to the top of the mountain over many years. we won't see $100/bbl again oil for a long time to come. likewise for all commodities in general.

Howard November 26, 2015

It's too early for gold. We are talking about the collapse of central banks and currencies. This has some time to play out.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

the banks already collapsed. that was in 2009. now they're in good shape. gold will spike during our first recession after the great recession, but that looks to be at least a couple years down the road, and even then we won't see new highs in gold for decades to come.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

CROW EATERS All speculation and opinions. Better prepare yourself to "eat some crow" later on (just in case you're wrong).

Chuck Burton November 26, 2015

Don't count gold out. It was, after all, the traditional store of value for several thousand years, and if our fiat buck collapses, gold could return to it's traditional role almost instantly. A billion paper bucks for a loaf of bread is possible (the equivalent happened in Weimar Germany). Think how many trillions an ounce of gold could be worth. And it could happen much quicker than you think. Those Germans who had jobs demanded to be paid several times a day so they could spend their Marks before they lost more value. Zimbabwe had to print $Trillion bills.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

i'm the only one who said three years ago that gold would go to $1,000, and everyone said i'd be eating crow then too. i'm not always right. i can handle being wrong. i'm always willing to eat humble with crow meat in it at any moment. i'm interested in making money, not in being right. gold will not break the high set in 2011 for decades. gold has been repeating this cycle for centuries. it would be a very odd situation for gold to break its cycle. we'll see $5,000 gold and hyperinflation, but it will be in about 20-30 years.

$1,000 gold November 26, 2015

i'm not counting gold out. i think gold is some of the best insurance you can own, but i also think it is one of the worst investments you can make. no currency that i know of has outlived gold, nor is more universally accecpted. absolutely i want to own gold, i just hope i never need it.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

Great News! I will have passed-on by the time we really have a total financial collapse. However, that does not mean we can not suffer many losses on the way. Rome did not "Collapse" in "one day" either, but in fact, it was a process taking place over 600 years.

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

Agreed. Particularly beware of Black Swans coming in the night to steal your peace and your soul. Remember the eternal fact: Your Life does not consist of your possessions. America has become to inward looking and selfish. We are a greedy and materialistic (consumer-based) country. A hard lesson in which all are reduced to a lower level or standard of living would be a hidden blessing. Then we might actually learn the basics all over again and retool our economy for productivity instead of debt, financial engineering, and consumption. The Status Quo can not last indefinitely. Something has to change sooner or later. Beware of Black Swan Events that change whole paradigms ( the Status Quo). http://www.businessinsider.com/nassim-talebs-black-swan-thanksgiving-turkey-2015-11

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

GOLD IS NOT AN INVESTMENT Gold is not a real "investment", per se. It is only a fall-back or back-up to disaster or the aftermath of another Black Swan, yet to come. Gold (GLD) can be a good (permanent) hedge for your bond portfolio, as well. Its independent or not correlated with conventional investments at critical times. I would not try to outsmart the precious metals markets and would not suggest trading gold or silver. Leave that to the futures wizards and Hedge fund managers.

Chuck Burton November 26, 2015

Right you are, $1000. I hope none of us ever needs it. But, unlike what could possibly happen to your C-note, it is never likely to become completely worthless. someone is always likely to be willing to trade something for gold - something that could keep you alive when you need it.

John T November 28, 2015

It recently happened in Zimbabwa, the country issued currency notes as high as a trillion, but a loaf of bread still cost a couole grains of gold.

Brutis the barber November 26, 2015

Larry! is that you posting on a Thursday! It is! And as usual with fake comments to get people subscribing to the Edelson conveyor belt! Chop chop chop who's next! Nice try - I still want you ballsack on a platter!

Craig Bradley November 26, 2015

Brutus the "Tea Bagger" ??

Brutis the barber November 26, 2015

No, Brutis the barber "beefcake" Can you elaborate on the "tea bagger"

Don Yuan November 27, 2015

Larry what about the DOW? You haven't said much about it since making the bold prediction is would fall below Augusts low. I think you were the one who kept waiting for the last correction and missed years of gains on stocks.

Chuck Burton November 27, 2015

An interesting item: the New York City Mafia - under Gambino - says they will protect the city from ISIS. They have "human intelligence" assets greater than the Feds, after all. He points out that ISIS fears the Mafia, and hasn't been able to set up any cells in Sicily. Who knows, maybe he has something. It's a question of which Mob you want to trust, Washington or Palermo.

Chuck Burton November 28, 2015

Of the recently reported gain of 271,000 jobs, most were by people over 55, who rose some 7.5%. Workers under 55 fell by about 4.8%. Does this indicate that young people simply don't want to work, or perhaps aren't qualified to do so by our educational system? Also, the labor participation rate fell to about what it was in 1967, when many married women didn't work outside the home. Average workers spending power fell to about what it was in 1975. Tell me we aren't in a severe recession, or maybe even a Depression of some sort.

Rob November 30, 2015

Unfortunately, my observations have been that Larry is good at chasing trends. A month or two after the next up-trend in Gold and Silver occurs, we'll receive a buy recommendation. One to two months after they go South, we'll receive a sell recommendation. Wait and see for yourselves.