Your Most Important Questions, Answered!

The questions from readers are pouring in again, so I’m going to devote this week’s column to answering the most important ones. Let’s get started!

Q: Given yesterday’s tragedy in Brussels, where do your war cycles stand?

A: Precisely as forecast, they continue to ramp up big time. This phenomenon is not going away any time soon, not until it crests in 2020 or 2021.

Simply understand this: In times of plenty, everything is fine. But in times of scarcity, the entire social fabric of society can give way.

What plenty or scarcity am I talking about? Not your usual suspects, like food and water, or energy. I’m talking about the lack of trust that is now exploding to the surface all over the world.

Lack of trust in banks. In brokers. In local governments. In religion. In institutions. In law. In the police. In any kind of authority.

Just think it all through. Have you ever seen such a swift collapse in trust and confidence in the world?

Between entire countries and civilizations? Between philosophies? Between economic classes, the rich and the poor? Between entire civilizations?

No, you haven’t. And the main reason it is happening is largely due to the governments of the world and how they have financially repressed their own people for well over a decade now.

With artificially low interest rates. With rising taxes. With prying eyes and cyber-eyes. With crooked politicians and crony capitalism, and more.

The war cycles point up all the way into 2021, so fasten your seatbelts. It’s going to get worse. All of it. From ISIS to Boko Haram. From Brussels to Washington. From Wall Street to Main Street. A collapse in trust and an explosion in tension and conflict.

Q: Gold stopped dead at the $1,285 level and started falling again, just as you said it would. What’s next for gold?

A: No changes. My forecast models take gold lower, back to the $1,180 level, possibly a tad lower, by late May. A solid breakout would only be indicated by a close above roughly $1,302.

Q: Oil sure bottomed as you said it would. Now it looks toppy. Your thoughts?

A: Yes, oil has some pretty stiff resistance at the $40 to $42 level and should now trade sideways for a few weeks, in a trading range between roughly $36 and $41 — before taking off again, up to the $50 level, expected in May/June.

Q:  Some say inflation is starting to come back. Do you agree or disagree?

A: I disagree. I don’t know where they see it. It’s not showing up in any official numbers, nor unofficial stats.

It’s not showing up in commodities, in the credit markets, in interest rates. So I don’t know what they base their forecasts on, other than the fact that Mario Draghi now has the pedal to the metal printing euros.

But as I’ve said all along, printing money by itself is not inflationary.

Q: What are your thoughts on the GOP, Trump, Clinton, etc.?

A: If I told you my thoughts on them, this column couldn’t be published!

All kidding aside though, what you are witnessing is the implosion of Washington. The lack of trust that I discussed earlier. Americans largely do not trust career politicians, or Washington in general, anymore. Hence, why Trump is so popular.

So the nasty politics you are seeing are part and parcel of the times we are in: Times when entire sovereign countries are torn apart, through both civil strife and even international conflict.

Q: Latest on the Dow Industrials? Like you, I see a pullback coming. But then, it never comes. Thoughts?

A: The major indices are caught between two forces right now. In one corner, is the long-term bull, being driven by international capital flows which still largely point to the U.S. from the rest of the world.

In the other corner, is the bear: A list of technical and internal indicators that are mauling away at the stock market, despite the headline numbers in the major indices like the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500. In other words, most publicly traded stocks are already either in a bear market, or pulling back.

The major indices are caught between two forces. Who will win the fight?

Who will win the fight? Long-term, the bull will, and the Dow will soar to 31,000.

But I maintain my view that the markets will likely, even the big name stocks, hit the mat once or twice before the bull really takes control. Worst case for the Dow is still roughly 13,900.

Q: Will oil ever go back above $100?

A: This is one of the most popular questions I get. The number is often different, but everyone now wants to know if oil will ever experience another bull market.

My answer: Yes, it will and indeed, a new bull market has already started. That said, it will not be a rip-roaring bull market in oil, due to what the market has gone through, alternative and hybrid energy advances, the state of the global economy and more.

But I do expect that oil can reach new record highs by late 2020, mostly on the back of geo-political turmoil, rather than demand driven.

Q: The Bank of Canada has sold all of its gold reserves. Do you expect more central bank sales of gold?

A: Yes. I forecast quite a while ago, that central banks would start selling their gold again, and probably at or near the lows. Which is precisely what Canada did.

Central banks don’t care for gold. They don’t want gold. They don’t really earn anything from gold. And they want to get rid of it once and for all and make it a dinosaur of the monetary system.

So don’t be surprised if you see more central bank gold selling. But don’t take it as a bearish sign. Take it as a bullish sign. They almost always sell at the beginning of bull markets (and buy at the beginning of bear markets).

That’s it for now. Stay tuned — my models are showing that this month and next will be pivotal for almost all markets, leading to major trends unfolding and a slew of new profit opportunities.

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. This rare, once-in-a-lifetime opportunity is only possible because western governments, the world’s biggest banks and Internet billionaires are all doing their level best to eliminate cash from the global economy … and FORCE all business transactions to be conducted electronically with bank debit cards, Paypal, Google Wallet, Apple Pay, and other electronic payment systems. Larry Edelson calls this the War on Cash! Click here now to see how you can profit from this trend!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 38

linda griffith March 23, 2016

The loss of trust has been well and truly earned by decades of growing corruption - in the courts, in law enforcement, in all levels of government. When prisons make a profit sending dark skinned people into them for minor drug offenses, and cops murder children on the street without being prosecuted, and Congress lines up behind a Fed doling out free money to its member banks and stiffing the rest of us, and the US goes on spending trillions bombing poor countries in the Mideast and displacing 100 million people, and SCOTUS spends 20 years ruling 100% of the time for corporations and against individual rights,and billionaires buy elections and corporate lobbyists write all of the legislation in Congress which then rubber stamps it,and wages decline while costs for food, rent and healthcare and education keep on climbing - duh. you end up with trump and sanders because the people are just fed up.

Bill Schultz March 23, 2016

Linda I agree with you...although there are a bunch of white kids in prison for drug violations as well..and some of these people shot by police are not innocent or small children..most are young thugs causing problems or the police wouln't be having to deal with them in the 1st place...so don't let mainstream media bait you in like that!

Tim March 23, 2016

What a complete and accurate synopsis, Linda!

Jonathan March 23, 2016

"Cops murder children in the street without being prosecuted" LOL, thanks for the laugh. I didn't realize I'd stumbled on to the "HuffPost" comment section.

$1,000 gold™ March 23, 2016

i think it's pretty safe to say, america has lost all common sense. a big heaping helping of just plain ol' common sense would go a long way in solving many or our problems.

Doug March 23, 2016

Totally agree Bill. Was going to reply a similar message to Linda. Will add that police are not murdering, when its self defense. So support law enforcement and yes there are a few bad apples but 95+% are great men and women.

HAWK 5000 March 23, 2016

Well I don't think people got to prison for minor drug offenses its not possible maybe if they re selling heroin or crystal meth then its possible , but have you ever looked at the long term consequence of drug usage how it destroys peoples lifes and the children of these addicts the effect it has on them, liberals want all drugs legalized simply for another source of taxation . And your comment about cops murdering children on the street is a complete media fabrication that you apparently have bought into, sure certain circumstances happen but 99.99% of all casualties are by gang members shooting at each other over drug turf and profits

Dcr March 26, 2016

Good for you.

marvin greenberg March 23, 2016

Love your thoughts and reccos.

Karin March 23, 2016

Sweden here again. I follow your goldcharts, since feb 10, with interest. (And your thoughts on global events.) I do compare levels with the specific dates you have given, and have also calculated a date of my own. It's great fun. Some people in Europe are not convinced Trump will be the best thing that ever happened to the world if voted for president. http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35828747 Best wishes! Karin

Will March 23, 2016

Larry, you say you do not see inflation; so, do you eat or shop for food? Although I do not live in the States anymore, my friends and family have increased their comments to me about their costs for food, rent, services and medical care in particular going constantly higher. Maybe government stats do not indicate inflation, but the populis do not eat government stats; and you shouldn't either.

Al March 23, 2016

The war on cash is a farce. Many US citizens can not deal with any form of currency except cash. ... Perhaps we should eliminate the penny, the nickel, the two dollar bill, etc., and oh for that matter, the large denomination bills like the $500.00 bill. What have you got in your wallet?

John Symons March 23, 2016

I am not surprised that oil is encountering resistance at $40/barrel given that the US rig count has begun to creep up again even at that level. Commentators used to say that $50/barrel was required to increase US shale oil production. Perhaps that was an overestimate. I agree on the impact of geopolitical turmoil. When Brent peaked at $115 in mid 2014 and fell to $45/barrel in early 2015 after Saudi Arabia deliberately collapsed the oil price part of that $70 fall was an excessive geopolitical risk premium that had earlier been priced in by traders. Brent had been remarkably stable over a three year period leading to the collapse, but gradually falling in real terms. It seemed to me that there might have been an equilibrium price around $90/barrel but will we ever return to the precise economic conditions ruling at the time?

Chuck Burton March 23, 2016

As Will says, the cost of LIVING is rising, while deflation takes hold in financial circles. There is a dichotomy here, and it will someday be resolved - probably to the pain of most of us, with higher prices and lower earnings, followed by a crash in everything. Remember, automation means there are no longer jobs available for everyone who needs one. The dole is simply a fact of life for more and more of us, and those getting "benefits" are doing so on the backs of earners getting relatively reduced wages as living costs rise.

$1,000 gold™ March 23, 2016

you're a fantastic macro analyst, larry. always have been. it is your forté.

Ted F March 23, 2016

Mistrust in governments or frustration? DC has gone against what the polls say we the people for years, particularly King Barack the Arrogant. The polls say NO to Obamacare but it is still here. The polls say NO to importing Syrian refugees but his majesty still wants to do it. The UN high Commission on Refugees has said the importation would do a lot of harm and no good, but the King stills plows ahead. The polls say the majority of we the people want our borders closed and the illegals send packing but that doesn't happen. It seems the so-called leaders have forgotten who this country belongs to and that their job is to run it the way we the people want. Donald Trump is voicing the frustration of millions and millions of Americans. And the GOP leadership is trying to stop him even though their party members are largely supporting him, more NOT listening.

Doc March 24, 2016

The senior elephants in congress are incapable of thinking outside the box as they try to maintain the status quo, failing to realize the status quo is regressing, not progressing. There are a lot of women out there who would vote for trump vs billary, whether you like it or not. All candidates moderate toward the center the closer the conventions and elections get. Both existing political parties need to be exterminated.

william dolan March 23, 2016

There is nothing out there you can buy in the AM and get your money back in the PM.I PAID $ 70,000 for my residence in 1970 and I can get in 2016 dollars $ 200,000 and there is noway I can get back my $ 70,000 back in 1970 purchasing power or value.The whole country is in a numbers gas bag. 2016 dollars will never get me even and this syndrome will continue ,lots of dollars with no value.My savings lose value constantly and the future DOW numbers will be high but no value.WILLIAM

barry stanley March 23, 2016

Dear Larry I have a questione re. bail-ins. Apart from savings deposits- how will this legislation effect money market funds? Are they likely to be included in some way should bail ins occurs. Thanks Barry

Harley March 23, 2016

Your knowlege is of excellent record and perception confirmed by your "left handed" use and thus right brain exercise !!!

al March 23, 2016

I been stacking silver in the 16s 15s 14s 13s and I'll keep loading up on it too I feel I have all I went I'm not to miss the boat think by the end of 2016 it will be a lot higher.and that way I can buy a little at a time and not her my self .anyway that's my game plan..

Cowen Revilo March 23, 2016

While I respect your comment about "LOW INFLATION", one has to wonder who does your grocery shopping and who pays your taxes ( property & income ). These things NEVER decrease. When was the last time anyone saw medical bills or college tuition drop? Somebody's math isn't kosher.

Bill March 28, 2016

The Govt. excludes the two things we all use from the inflation figure. Food and energy.

deerflyguy March 23, 2016

If the big push is on to bring us to a cashless society, should it ever become a reality, where does it leave investors that physically hold precious metals for financial security and the long haul?

joey March 23, 2016

Again on deflation. While deflation may be happening in the financial world way of accounting, in the real world and especially in BC Canada, we are being eaten alive by INflation. Not only food, medicine, taxes and the rest, but also on a place to live. Our property values continue to fly higher to such a point that no longer can a "native" Canadian afford shelter. We are being eaten alive. Are you aware Larry that this is happening?

BOB DOWELL March 23, 2016

WE KNOW THE THINGS THAT ARE WRONG. THE ESTABLISHMENT HAS US LOCKED IN WHERE WE CANT DO ANYTHING ABOUT IT. Here is what we can do. Each state must pass laws on a state level that controls what a congressman can and cannot do while in Washington. For Instance:

BOB DOWELL March 23, 2016

Make it a felony offence for a congressman to accept money from a lobbyist for any reason. Make it mandatory for a congressman to vote on any bill that comes to the floor, then return home with a report on the state floor and explain why they voted yes or no on the bill and why they think the bill is good or bad for their state. In fact each congressman should be required to return home and debate the bill on their home state floor before voting on the federal floor. These are just a few starters.

Bill March 28, 2016

Term limits would be good.

BOB DOWELL March 23, 2016

DOES ANYONE EVEN KNOW WHO WROTE OBAMACARE YET? OR WHY? NO ONE EVEN KNEW WHAT IT SAID , BEFORE IT WAS PASSED. WE THE PEOPLE HAVE THE RIGHT TO CONTROL WHO WE SEND TO WASHINGTON TO REPRESENT THE STATE WE LIVE IN.

John from Ojai March 23, 2016

You conveniently omitted Bernie Sanders from you political discussion but he is the only candidate who addresses your observation on distrust in government without welcoming fascism and racism. If rich people were more open to sharing their good fortune they wouldn't have to spend so much on security. Yes, the Scandinavian model provides the happiest citizens.

john morrison March 23, 2016

Your reported the recent high water mark for gold and the low it will test, but I have not seen these 2 price levels for silver. Was pleased to see gold and silver act the way you touted today (Wed 3/23).

Michael Jane White March 23, 2016

Your history lesson for the day, folks: In the early roman empire the dole was more intense once the Senate had gotten enough slaves and staved off the independent farmer/soldiers' ability to vie with them. Then, after the dole was not enough to sustain the eminent domain of the Senatorial/Corporate class then the civil service had to glean the senate induced foundations that were where the insurance operators kept their free floating cash. Poof, they could no longer hold together the empire, the foreign born generals took over and sacked Rome, thank you very much. Then the foreign born were able to takeover the big plantations that the Senate had run. Then they became the serf populated small kingdoms, of the northern tribes that had gone south during the mini ice age. Good luck, folks.

Damien March 23, 2016

I'm having a lot of trouble getting my order from northwest territorial mint. 2 weeks ago I asked for my cash refund, only to find out today that the president is under investigation and all refunds and orders are frozen. Do not place an order through NWTM. The worst part is they had no intention on letting me know my refund check was not coming and I may never receive my money back. Even worse they are still excepting orders by phone and website. They are criminals and I beg you steer clear.

Greg March 24, 2016

How did you find out that the president is under investigation and all refunds/orders are frozen?

Jim H. March 29, 2016

The same thing is happening to me. They told me my refund check was mailed. They even gave me a check number and date. 10 days they said. 10 days came and went. called back. sorry. 5 more days. 5 days came and went. called. Sorry. CEO under investigation nor refund. maybe later. I called and called. Talked to James, Samantha, Alea and more. No one could care less to help me. $1800. Had my wife call and pretend to be interested in buying 100 oz of silver. Immediately ready to take order. I took phone and confronted her and was put on hold never to talk to anyone again. DO DO NOT give these crooks 1 cent.

Do you still believe that Gold is going up? March 23, 2016

Today's fall in gold price does it mean a big correction is underway?

$1,000 gold™ March 24, 2016

a better question would be, do you think the bottom in gold is in yet? why would anyone buy gold, (except to play a bounce), until the bottom is in? if i were going to invest in real estate, i'd wait for a bottom. gold is just another hard asset like real estate.

Christine Dudley March 25, 2016

Thank you Larry for your advise. I find myself not trusting any trade other than gold. Doing Jnug / jdst has made money for me , when most people lost, the last 3 months. Sure you have to watch it close, but it works. I like some more 3x trades in your letters to help us get ahead. It looks like oil will be good to watch for a good return. We will get through the tough times, like we always do and will have learned a lot. Thanks....