Wow, did you see gold?!

Gold has crashed. So has silver. So have senior and junior miners. All just as I had forecast.

Gold getting down — so far — to as low as $1,243. Silver to as low as $17.11 (both basis December futures contracts). The typical senior miner has shed more than 30% since early August, as measured by the AMEX Gold Bugs Index.

And all this despite …

➔ Just about every analyst on the planet calling for a new bull market.

➔ The possible failure of Deutsche Bank, one of the largest, riskiest banks in the world, leveraged 40-to-1 with derivatives.

➔ The craziest, most destructive and rebellious elections in the U.S., probably ever.

➔ Russia’s Putin making new aggressive moves in Eastern Europe and new threats against the U.S.

So the two main questions on most investors’ minds are …

1. “Why is gold falling?” and

2. “How low can it fall?”

A. Gold is falling because investors are hoarding cash, not gold. As I’ve said all along, gold is not portable, it’s illiquid and it’s not going to help any large institutions survive what’s coming.

So instead, the opposite is happening … large hedge funds, pension funds and others are liquidating gold and silver and hoarding cash instead.

B. How low can it fall? Well, there’s a very good chance $1,243 was that secondary bottom I’ve been telling you about. My target — and I showed you the forecast charts — was $1,250 by October 5 to 7 — and we got a near perfect bull’s-eye on that forecast.

But it’s really a tad too soon to say. The selling torrent in the precious metals and miners that was unleashed last week may need some more time to probe and form a bottom. There may even be one more stab at a new low. Ditto for silver and miners.

Plus, the crisis with Deutsche Bank is not yet over. If Deutsche Bank goes under — and it may indeed totally collapse, as I noted last week — it will be a weapon of mass destruction many times larger than the failure of Lehman Brothers in 2008.

If Deutsche Bank goes down, you can
expect more liquidation of precious metals.

And if Deutsche Bank goes down, you can certainly expect more liquidation of precious metals.

So what should you be doing now? For now, I’d stick with the same suggestions I had last week …

For one thing, you should mostly be in cash, as I have stated all along.

For another, if you acted on any suggestions I made to hedge gold and silver holdings with inverse ETFs, you should exit those now — if you haven’t already.

Yes, the metals can move lower. But a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Meanwhile, also as forecast, the dollar is soaring … the euro weakening. And in other markets, crude oil should be reaching a top soon, with another leg down coming, despite the recent OPEC production cut.

And the Dow Industrials? Biding its time. Still at risk of a correction, but also very bullish longer-term.

Stay safe, and best wishes, as always …


P.S. Economic tidal waves act just like tsunamis. According to the National Geographic, the enormous energy of a tsunami can lift giant boulders, flip vehicles and demolish houses. But from a financial standpoint, the K Wave will be even worse: Millions could lose their homes. Millions more could see their lifesavings wiped out in an instant. Businesses, large and small, could close their doors. Even the bare necessities of life — food, water, clothing — might become scarce. That’s why it’s so important that you get your free copy of my new report “STOCK MARKET TSUNAMI” right away, click here to download now!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 67

john herzberg October 12, 2016

Your recent predictions correct. No hate mail here.

hawk5000 October 13, 2016

if you think a multiple of 40 for deutsche bank is bad consider goldman sacks with a 64 multiple of T.A. to O.D.C. bank of america , citibank all have worse multiples

Mario October 12, 2016

Do you think it is possible that gold will fall to $750-700, as provided Harry Dent, it means that it will be a great depression?

Craig October 12, 2016

I did see what Dent said, however, I don't know enough about these gurus to know who to actually trust. Just became a member here as Larry and others made sense to me.

hawk5000 October 13, 2016

it all depends on how strong the dollar is compared to a basket of currencies remember if the interest rate is raised thats whats going to raise the value of the greenback and in return drop the value of precious metals

Craig October 13, 2016

Got it, thanks! That's probably why Larry is saying to be patient, as not all the variables are in the same direction.

Martyne Poirier October 18, 2016

Bonjour Mr. Ledson je ne peux vous dire comment se terminera se débat entre Mffc Trump et Mme Clinton mais je trouve que sa commence à jouer dur de données un million de vous à qui trouverais le plus de ragot sur Mr Trumpt je ne pensais pas q'un jours notre gouvernement laisserais faire des choses comme ça il ne font pas d'enquête avant que les personnes en présente pour être premier ministre je ne fais pas partie des États-Unis mais je trouve sa déplorable que l'on donneun millions de dollars pour salaire la réputation d'une personne ses bien sur qu'avec un tel montant il va y avoir une personne qui vas entaché sa vie et celle de sa famille car je sais q'un premier ministre s'il est choisi sa vie privée il en à plus mais de la à salir sa vie privée je trouve que le monde vas trop loin Martyne Poirier.

Elena Dulhan October 18, 2016

Bon soir Madame. Je pense que ce site est pour les gens qui postent des commentaires en anglais.

Ron October 12, 2016

Larry, you have been spot on with your market analysis. I would not miss your weekly advice. Your 'big picture' outlook is always so timely. Ron

stan October 12, 2016

I filled limit orders back in early Sept when when prices fell on HMY, GG and AUY as you stated. Loosing bad on these orders now.

Ken Quarles October 12, 2016

Should u hold on to your silver and gold

John N. October 12, 2016

Great call on gold and thank you for the update and advice!

marvin October 12, 2016

great call I been with u for years this is why you can take the heat and go against the crowd

Aidan October 12, 2016

Good plan

fantasia October 12, 2016

Larry; Do you think its buy time by the end of October? Tony

Brendan Thow October 12, 2016

Keep up your GREAT work Larry. You are # "001" Best Wish Black Tulip

WasteLand Warrior October 12, 2016

Also would they be selling their Gold positions to raise cash to pay off some of their other losing plays and margin calls? Hence if the stock market starts to correct here as it seems like it might be ready to do, would that cause more selling in gold to pay off even more margin calls? So possibly another leg lower before bottoming? 1250 sure looks like a strong floor so a fall below that and definetely below 1241 would panic even more selling. Am I right?

Jerry October 12, 2016

I find your weekly briefings very helpful in understanding what is happening in the markets. There are so many pieces of the economic puzzle to be analyzed. Thanks, Jerry

Bob October 12, 2016

With all the problems world wide plus at lest a dozen more u didn't tell us And only 5 to 10 percent of the people who invest in stocks making a profit , why would anybody risk their money in stocks

Shar October 12, 2016

I asked this once before but no reply. Should we be buying more BTG as it has continued to drop below your buy price? All else is working well. Thanks

Chuck Burton October 12, 2016

Deutsche bank failure could result in liquidation of gold positions, but it could also mean Europeans, especially, converting Euros to gold, since it could be another leaf in the story of the breakup of the E.U., and the end of the Euro. Watch that November vote for, or against Italy's exit.

Michel October 12, 2016

Can you show us a new chart produced by your AI system?.

charles e.berner October 12, 2016

i think i will stick with your advise, things are ugly out there.

Cliff Holloway October 12, 2016


Stu October 12, 2016

Appreciate your more frequent updates, Larry. I wonder if investors would be more apt to selling equities in crash scenario as they already have built-in profits with last 7 yrs of stock market gains. Fwiw, I've been buying the dips of quality jr. gold miners and accumulating more physical gold and silver.

Dan S October 12, 2016

Yes gold and silver prices have fallen but when the dollar collapses, as it most certainly will, watch what happens to the precious metal prices. The debts accrued in this country both government and private are, to say the least, horrendous. I have yet to see a reduction in the red ink numbers or for that matter a reduction in how fast they're increasing. Unbelievably we're still somehow chugging along with the increasing debt and interest payments. Could it be instead of private investors selling off bullion maybe the central banks are? This would seem likely if the value of currency comes into question to help restore faith in the paper, plastic and zinc coinage. I for one will be trading every zinc penny I can manage to accumulate into precious metals. You can hold onto all of the paper, plastic and zinc you want It'll leave more gold and silver for me.

Craig October 12, 2016

Maybe I don't understand your point, and I'm kind of new to this, but if all the other governments are in as bad a shape as the US... why would the dollar fall relative to them? I do see a financial collapse causing a shift to one world currency, just don't have the info in my head to wrap my brain around a dollar collapse relative to other currencies.

Wacio October 13, 2016

It may take decades for dollar to unwind. In the meantime its anyone's guess how gold price will fluctuate. Its smart to have some physical in portfolio and not so to just hoard cash.

Marshall October 12, 2016

Compounding reasons why we should avoid stocks, bonds and precious metals is a policy of the power cartel to depopulate. War has serve this historically but global population exceeds all life that existed in the past therefore an alternative that best serves their agenda is a plague. This was given a source during the 911 event under the Amtrak crisis. Now they have a party to blame- terrorists. Globally population relative to resources to sustain it is fast reaching critical mass.

William October 15, 2016

There are plenty of resources to sustain the current population and in fact the population is decreasing world wide. That is part of the current problem in the economy. Fewer laborers to sustain the older population. The NWO has a goal of the perfect population of 750,000,000 and would love to take us there.

tom October 12, 2016

there is no way the german gov is going to let Deutsche bank to fail

PaulH October 12, 2016

Hi, why will there be a liquidation in precious metals when the Deutsche Bank will fall? Is gold then not a safe haven?

Thomas Schuckman October 12, 2016

I know this better educated gentleman is much smarter and savvy than me, but I used to be Securities Licensed and we were always taught to buy low -- and sell high. It seems to me that NOW is the time to invest in MORE "Metals" [Gold and Silver, etc. Do we or can we ever have too much PM's ?? Not in my case... LOL. I also write a humble blog: TOM'S JOURNAL, ---I am a Disabled Vietnam Veteran: 68-70. "There is wisdom in a multitude of councilors." "Iron sharpens Iron." --Proverbs 27: 17. ---Tommy Schuckman

Geo October 12, 2016

You say to exit hedges here but don't issue a flash alert to subscribers???

Mike Hunsaker October 12, 2016

I read a report stating that the Feds lent Deutsche Bank over $390 billion dollars at zero interest as well as other foreign banks. According to this report, of the $16 trillion lent out over $13 trillion remains outstanding. Did Deutsche Bank repay us? If not, the US taxpayers will be picking up the tab if they fail. Seems to me that giving out interest-free loans that do not have to be paid back is the same as giving large banks free money - at taxpayer expense. Is this why the Fed does not want a full accounting of what they did?

Jim P. October 12, 2016

Merkel and the EU will come to the rescue to prop up DB. Just the fact, that they've mentioned so much has caused DB stock to go higher...along with a possible (lower end) judgement from the DOJ. If DB failed, the entire global banking system would tank. They won't let that happen. Of course, the issue with a "bailout" is a considerable problem, since Merkel pushed for a "bail-in" for other EU banks. Several countries would end up leaving the EU, if a "bailout" happened. As Ed stated, it's already too late for keeping the EU together, but this scenario would just exasperate the problem.

Teri October 12, 2016

Larry, I wish you would resins to the reader's questions. You used to respond. What will happen to gold if Dutche goes under?

Tom K. October 12, 2016

Larry: You are on target. Everything seems to be falling into place. Please keep us informed of a possible bottom and a time to start buying precious metals. Thank you again, Tom

Miles October 12, 2016

Still wish I would have loaded up the truck at $1050.

Susanne October 15, 2016

Finally, one guy tells it how it is!

Commissioner 7 October 12, 2016

What do you suggest we do when it takes a wheelbarrow full of cash to buy bread and cheese for the week? My mother in law lived in Germany and experienced that first hand. All our banks are 25% larger and leveraged to the hilt on derivatives as well.

UDO October 12, 2016

I understand the uncertainty in the markets lately and in gold as well but why could one lose their home ? First of all those prices don't move as fast as stock prices and Interest rates will not shot up to 10% overnight so what gives ? We all have to live somewhere . Can that be explained in the next briefing ? TIA

janie Book October 12, 2016

I am so confused on what to do! I don't have much, but want to do the best I can with what I do have. Is cash, gold or silver the best thing????

eric p October 15, 2016

Janie, First I would speak to a certified investment advisor. Check their record on the BBB website. Second, start a support group. I know there is a lot of confusion out there. Part of me wants to start an investment newsletter. My mom is over 70, and my dad set her up where she doesn't have to work(my dad passed away in 2011), she lives off his good investments and good money practices. Most Americans are in your situation, of living paycheck to paycheck.

Cynthia Young October 12, 2016

I don't know wat I can do I'm on SSI and I can hardly make ends meet .the only hope I have is God , I'm not sure why this is all happening all i can say is that I pray it changes if there is something someone could tell me what I can do plz share with me. I don't know what to do but pray. Thank you for Ur information.

Ernie October 14, 2016

Cynthia, when this storm finally comes to shore, the only thing any of us will have is prayer. Now is the time to get rid of bad behaviors and develop an intimate relationship with Yahweh. How do we do that? Turn off the computer, ditch the cell phone, destroy the tv, tell everyone else you have a conference call and to not disturb you, go into your private prayer space and start asking God questions, then get quiet and listen. Decide you're not coming out of that room (or car, or bathtub or whatever) until He speaks to you. Get filled with the Holy Spirit if you are not already, get the book 70 reasons to speak in tongues (Amazon), read it, do it. The shelter of the Most High God is the best place to be for this storm as wickedness (twistedness) is going to get it's come-uppance very soon.

John October 12, 2016

I do not agree with your forecast of the dow going to 31,000 first and then the market crashing. The market normally crashes first before it goes up again. Tell me why you are right and Harry Dent and others are wrong.

Debbie October 19, 2016

I would like an answer on this too. With one investment adviser telling us to invest because the stock exchange will go to 31000 and the other adviser telling us there is a big crash coming, down to 6000 or even 3000 - what on earth are we supposed to do or believe? It's all such nonsense. And no one here gets any replies to their questions or points at all.

Eli October 12, 2016

Great Calls Larry! I wonder if you will clarify in your next article what to do with oil stocks over the long-term, even if you're predicting a drop in the short-term. Should someone who holds oil stocks sell them?

$1,000 gold October 12, 2016

higher rates = stronger dollar = lower gold. good calls by larry. he's been spot on.

$1,000 gold October 12, 2016

also, higher rates = good new for bank stocks, eh?

Al October 12, 2016

Your call for the drop in gold was right. Congrats

Commissioner7 October 13, 2016

I would argue that gold hasn't "crashed", but simply returned to what it was pre Brexit.

skendow October 12, 2016

Larry any truth that on 09/26/16 various agencies began collecting CUSP ID numbers on precious metals such as British Sovereign coins bought/sold/stored, etc.? Any info on all is appreciated, thanks, Scotland.

jtmarlin October 13, 2016

Way to stand your ground on the metals, Larry. A gutsy call proved totally correct. Thanks.

Bignick October 13, 2016

The recent pullback in gold was the result of a huge short in the futures market. I for one see this as an opportunity to add to my holdings of the mining stocks.

britt thompson October 14, 2016

wow 16did you see it 10 /14 /16 you think it might be headed to 1188 as you implied it might if 1250 where broken it has broken it 2x now?

Sandy Hines October 14, 2016

Larry, where can I get a crash course in what all the acronyms mean like etf, what is a put, etc,etc ? I am very smart and can learn fast. do I need a broker or can I invest by myself. I'm a babe in the woods. You have inspired me to do this, Now I need to learn how. I would gladly buy your service if I had all the information how to go about it and knew what all the lingo meant. Can you help me? I've been checking the financial pundits out and I think you are the best. Please advise me very soon so I don't miss out.

Doug Grady October 15, 2016

Larry thank you for your excellent work! I have a question, if USDollar collapses, would that hurt junior mining stock shares priced in Dollar?

Martin October 15, 2016

Start to wonder, if cash bullions has been such a good idea mate????

Ken October 15, 2016

Yep home run on holding cash and waiting, best forecast on gold and silver, thanks Larry

Watcher October 15, 2016

I feel that the so called present strength of the dollar is purely illusory, with total current unfunded debt of over $19 Trillion, at least half of it incurred during Obama's 8 year mono-reign over this country, people retain a faint hope that nothing further will go wrong. The present faith in the dollar is purely due to the simple fact that historically people simply do not trust the alleged fiscal stability of other currencies, such as the Euro, Ruble or the Renminbi as a viable alternative to the Dollar. But no one either reads or heeds history in Modern America.

Lance B. October 15, 2016

Crashed? Down 0.44 percent? Larry, you're such a salesman. You've been wrong as much as you've been right about your predictions. How many days do you have left until the Euro is less than one dollar in the exchange. Because you predicted with completely almost two weeks ago that it would happen in a matter days or the next few weeks. You've made other absolute claims numerous times over the years that never came to fruition. 0.44 percent is a crash? Okay.

Bob October 15, 2016

If you will recall, Larry's forecast was that Gold & Silver would go down the first part of October and then he would forecast when the time was right to "load up the truck" Good advice, I am a gold bug and believe that it is the only way to weather the storm that is rapidly approaching.

The Practical Economist October 17, 2016

First, the movement in Gold in the past eight weeks is hardly what you can properly call a crash, especially when the Dollar has moved higher the past few weeks. To the extent that Gold's downward move can be attributed to the Dollar's rise, it's misleading to say that Gold has crashed. Second, it's all about why one is invested in Gold. The move over the past eight weeks may be irrelevant to what your purpose is. Third, most of those in your industry have convinced themselves that the Fed is hell-bent on raising rates. And that's partly informing Gold's trajectory. You know--at least I think you do--that there is no way the Fed is raising rates anytime soon. So...what does it mean that Gold has crashed, to use your language. Maybe it's a buying opportunity? If you can make a case against Gold given that the deficit is still high, that the deficit has stopped declining, capital spending has been declining for months, and Industrial Output has been declining for months (yes, declining...look at the figures year-over-year)'s not likely that you want to maintain that Gold doesn't have a robust medium-term future.

Anthony Green October 17, 2016

I have had problems with Time Warner transmission. Am I able now at this late time to get Larry"s talk at 3.0 pm?

Jim P October 21, 2016

If Hitlery gets elected...we're all screwed, but it's actually (I believe) too late for Donald Duck. Our two party system cannot work together. DEBT is our REAL problem and it cannot be repaid...EVER! This is why I changed over from Agora to here. Agora's calls or puts are all backwards. Rickards called Brexit correct, but missed on almost everything else since then, except FXB option. I'm in the right place now! I also have 10 to 15 stocks ready, when this market turns around. Paul M is calling for DOW 50,000. I've been with him, since he came back and like his picks, but most of my capital will go into Larry's picks! Best to all! Sometimes patience is key.