What’s With Gold, Silver, the Dow?

Investors want my head again. Gold, silver, and mining companies are refusing to fall per the forecast of my artificial intelligence, neural net models.

So what gives? In this column, I’ll lay out what I think is happening and also give you my line in the sand.

Fundamentally, what I believe is happening is that the rise in geopolitical troubles here in the U.S. and abroad, the rise of the war cycles that I’ve written about before, is stronger than I had expected. This is causing the precious metals and mining sector to be stronger than expected as well.

However, the line in the sand remains a weekly close above $1,363.50 in gold. If that were to occur, it would indicate an extended rally to somewhere between $1,450 and $1,500 by October. Mining companies of course would follow suit as would platinum and palladium.

Let’s hope we don’t see that. The reason is because when a market undergoes two cycle inversions in a row, without a pullback — that market is actually more bearish than bullish intermediate-term.

If we were to get a second cycle inversion and a move up to the $1,450 to $1,500 region in gold by October, then we would likely see the precious metals crash and burn, along with mining companies into early 2017 — and to new record lows.

The far more constructive, bullish pattern would be for gold and silver to follow the current forecast and decline into early October. So if you’re a long-term bull, you want to be rooting for a decline into October.

I’m telling you like it is. I’m not talking out of both sides of my mouth. I’m giving you the two scenarios for the precious metals and miners. And I’m giving you the line in the sand that separates the two scenarios.

As testament to how accurate my numbers can be, just consider the Dow Jones Industrials. For over a year and a half, I told you that major resistance for the Dow Industrials was at 18,500. I also told you that the next leg up in the Dow Industrials would not begin until we got a monthly close above 18,500.

For well over a year now, the Dow has flirted with the 18,500 level. And this past Friday, July 29, the last trading day of the month, the Dow closed at 18,432.24, once again failing to close the month above 18,500.

In truth, the Dow Industrials and the S&P 500 have reached record highs but only due to a handful of stocks, namely in the tech sector. The majority of publicly traded stocks remain lower for the year, down as much as 71.6 percent.

U.S. stock markets have gone nowhere for well over a year.

Looking at the big picture, the U.S. stock markets have gone nowhere for well over a year. And they will not begin to break out until we get a monthly close above 18,500, which still does not preclude a correction from occurring.

There is no question that geopolitical tensions domestically and internationally are rising at a very fast pace. This has been the cornerstone theme of my forecasts ever since I gave my presentation on the war cycles in late 2012.

This is what will dominate the future, heading into the year 2020/21. The Federal Reserve is essentially meaningless and has lost control of the economy. Ditto for the European Central Bank and other central banks. Ditto for governments.

Brexit is very much a part of this rise in geopolitical tensions and the opening act of the end of the European Union and the euro currency. Italy’s banks are now failing, putting extreme stress on Germany’s leadership, in addition to the refugee crisis which may well topple Angela Merkel.

Here in the U.S., like it or not, my models are pointing to a Donald Trump win come November. He is the worst possible candidate, but the timing fits perfectly with what my models are forecasting for the U.S., which is a sovereign debt crisis, rising civil unrest, and increased troubles with countries around the world, namely Russia and China — including the very real potential for an international war of epic, historic proportions.

Stay tuned and stay safe!

Best wishes,


P.S. I want to give you my FREE Dow 31,000 Preparedness Kit. It includes four free reports that will guide you, step by step, as you position yourself to ride this tsunami of rising stock values … and take advantage of opportunities that can multiply your money many times over. Click here to get your copy now! 

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 56

Siggy Latarski August 3, 2016

Larry, Yes these markets are like watching paint dry. Is time factor ruining our Euro options? And do these Geopolitical, domestic & foreign, negate your models in anyway, realizing not counting any inversions that occur?

Robert Miller August 3, 2016

So Larry,would the HildaBeast be a better selection rather than Trump? Here in the U.S., like it or not, my models are pointing to a Donald Trump win come November. He is the worst possible candidate, but the timing fits perfectly with what my models are forecasting for the U.S., which is a sovereign debt crisis, rising civil unrest, and increased troubles with countries around the world, namely Russia and China — including the very real potential for an international war of epic, historic proportions.

Henk Koornstra August 3, 2016

I would very much like to hear your comparison between Hillary and Trump, which comparison is expected to be more in depth than what the Main Street Media is throwing at us. The MSM is pro establishment and, due to their education, very much in tune with extreme liberal ideas, without looking at reality. I like to have your reality check.

Chuck Burton August 3, 2016

Neither beast will help this country. Even Gary Johnson is doubtful, but I prefer the Libertarian view, and he will get my vote.

Jim August 3, 2016

Politicians never do what the say they are going to do. Our choice is really quite simple. Mrs. Clinton is the Establishment and Trump isn't. You can have four more years of the same or something different. What I find most interesting about this race is the Democrats planted in the Republican Party are having to show themselves. I think both parties have been exposed as thoroughly corrupt . Jim

Jim August 6, 2016

Except Johnson may be the libertarian candidate, but HE doesn't prefer the libertarian view, he is open borders and TPP like the Hildabeast.

Gordon August 6, 2016

A sovereign debt crisis in the US would nullify any Dow 31,000 forecast. If the US declares bankruptcy then 31,000 might be in the cards but then their credit rating is down the crapper and your back to square one. Throw in rising civil unrest and you have a model about 6,000 more like a Harry Dent forecast. I know we are living in a house of cards economy but 31,000 is really a stretch. I have circled November 8th on the calendar and if your right about Trump well I take my hat off to you. If your not right well promises I guess they were made to be broken.

Richard L Crist August 6, 2016

Are you kidding? Lie after lie,scandal after scandal,completely for sale,not respected by 70% of America or overseas . For free trade and open boarders which take our jobs and lower our wages,not to mention more terrorist attacks. She is totally corrupt. Have you ever seen the Clinton Chronicles? Good buy America and freedom. Hello One World Government! We will never have a choice again. We will be expendable,especially Christians. We will be herded like pigs. The corrupt elite will own us.If this is what you want , vote for Hillary. Didn't you learn anything from Obama?

Ray August 6, 2016

When debt is nullified in a sovereign debt crisis, money will come out of that investment class. The debt market is the largest market on this planet in dollar terms. What do you think if only a small fraction of the wealth comes out of the debt market? It will not rest idly in a bank account, but find its way into the stock market. Dow 31,000 is NOT a piped dream. It is a very real.

Peter W August 6, 2016

What weapons are we fighting this "war of epic proportions"? What kind of BS doom & gloom r u projecting? Just go pay attention to ur $$$assets & be happy u live in the USA...except if that narcisstic maniac wins...all politicians lie so what...trump is pathological & intellectually lazy.

Stephen Miller August 3, 2016

Where do you think Boeing Aero Space and others like it are going?

Chuck Burton August 3, 2016

Down, unless we get into an armaments race with China and Russia.

Joseph Cusano August 3, 2016

I think you are correct in your assessments. Also, the Donald will be an excellent president and hopefully he can clean out the criminals in DC. As I see it those who lament his rise are thinking only of their portfolios but not their country. DC is filled with thieves and bureaucrats. There are more criminals in Washington now than there were pirates on Tortuga in its heyday.

Redwood Rogue August 3, 2016

Joseph well written. We are going to have a NIGHT OF THE LONG KNIVES.

Hapuna69 August 4, 2016

You need to read more about the Donald. Just Google Donald Trump and charge of rape. See for yourself. He is NOT clean. But then, none of the politicians is less than dirty. What most scares me about the Donald is that he is a very good model for a dictator. Think Latin America. This man is not going to 'make America Great" he is going to make America a prison camp. Hell, it already is. We have the highest per capita rate of incarceration in the entire world. I guarantee that when he begins his ethnic cleansing there will be blood in the streets and the prisons will fill. Of course, with the rise of China and Russia also coming to a head, there will also be blood in foreign streets. There may no way to prevent the foreign wars, but I sincerely hope that you are patriotic enough to not want to see blood and fires in our streets. Civil war is a very nasty thing, indeed. Read about our last one. Look at Iraq. If we do not stand together in America, we will fail as a nation. Period. A lot of people will die in the process. Believe me, this is not something that is to be desired, even if 'your' side wins. War is devastating to all.

Jim August 6, 2016

Do you know Google is working with the democrats in trying to destroy Trump? For a week, if you googled "Presidential candidates" his name didn't even come up. If you google Clinton scandals, you get really old ones, nothing new or relevant. They bury democrat crimes and exaggerate republican missteps.

HOWARD KRIEBEL August 3, 2016

Larry, hopefully your gaze into reality is wrong, but with the bulk of the scenarios enfolding, there is little else to expect but upheaval and mega violence that is being promoted by the overt frustration of the rabble on the world wide welfare train.

David C. August 3, 2016

Larry, I am still following your advice to a great degree, however, is the weekly close on Gold above $1,363.50, I thought your recent RWR stated $1,368.50. A small % difference but we are very close at this point and we could get a signal this Friday; although I assume if we do you would send out a Flash Alert. Could you please clarify.

Justin August 3, 2016

Think of a saw blade, level in front of you. The teeth go up and down sideways. That is a neutral market (where cycle analysis works best). Hold the saw blade down on the right. The teeth go down, then sideways, down, sideways. That is a bear market - rallies go sideways. Hold the saw blade up on the right. The teeth go up, then sideways, up, sideways. That is a bull market - selloffs go sideways. Gold and silver both completed parabolic advances in February, and then went sideways instead of having the typical post parabola sharp 50% correction. Gold and silver again completed parabolic advances early July, and again have failed to sharply pull back the typical 50%. The late Joe Granville noted that our indicators behave differently during bull and bear markets. If we are indeed in a raging precious metals bull market that will take gold to $5,000/oz in a few years, then you need to capitulate and accept that corrections will go sideways, rarely down, and second chances to buy into this bull market will be few. In time, we will retest the curved trend line that will take us to $5,000, but we are likely to only get one more chance before THE major price explosion. That opportunity might not come for a year, which would be at today's prices. As it was, your analysis correctly forecast bottoms in December and the end of May. Look for another waterfall formation (inverse parabola) as we saw at the end of May - that will be the next buying opportunity - it will be a superb buying opportunity of it coincides with a retest of the curved major bullish formation.

sharon harrington August 3, 2016

I agree with Joseph Cusano and many others ,I talk to I will vote for Donald Trump is what this country needs.Most people don't want the truth coming out,but this country has been going Down a long time.

joan August 3, 2016

Larry I don't understand why the Euro currency is holding up so well. With all that is going on in Europe I would have expected more pressure on the Euro currency consistent with your views. I have a small holding of Euo double short the euro) Are you still looking at low 30's for crude?

$1,000 gold™ August 3, 2016

you said it, larry. stocks have not gone nowhere for over a year. when stocks go up again, gold will go down. stocks will go up again once oil goes up again, and that will be when crude inventories begin the draw down.

Chuck Burton August 3, 2016

I agree with your thesis, Larry. A market that overdoes in one direction is then in great danger of overdoing in the other direction also. Just a matter of psychology. Currently, there seems to be no strong trend in either direction, though the bias seems to be to the up side. We need a breakout in one direction or the other to give us a handle on the future possibilities.

Edward Waller August 3, 2016

I have been a subscriber to Real Wealth Report for some time. How do I get hold of these four Reports you refer to without having to take out a further subscription to the Real Wealth Report please?

scott grider August 3, 2016

Larry, Trump while not perfect, is much better than Goldman Sachs owned Billary........and me and Martin Armstrong agree with your scenario [tho i think you know that already].

RAVI SRINIVASAN August 3, 2016

Larry With due respects to your expertise in trading , I ask you this clarification I remember you saying that your model mainly takes into account the FUTURES But , other than that , there are other Dynamically changing external factors like what you exactly stated in this main " The geopolitical crisis escalating faster rate , more than you expected. Any cause and effect response from changes in external factors will have some time lag ( Read it mental inertia ) to reflect in the Quantum of FUTURES That being said would it not be fair enough to consider these external dynamisms into your Model ( Or probably you already included this ) Can you please clarify Regards Ravi

jim step August 3, 2016

Your assessment that Trump would win is hard to believe - unless there is a gold and stock market correction/decline by Oct. I would like to see the Washington politicians leave. The Obama term has seen Govt debt go from $8 trillion in 2008 to $19 Trillion - without any spending curbs. President and Congress should have only one 6 year term. Then they don't need to spend all the time raising money for reelection.

Floyd August 3, 2016

Larry, you said a "possible" correction to occur in the DJIA before a monthly close above 18500. Is that now a revision to be the one-and-the-same correction that you had forecasted to end by latest May of this year, in your February 03 2016 article http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/stocks-topped-temporarily-75782 ? OR is that yet another DJIA correction to 'possibly' unfold as you say herein "... they will not begin to break out until we get a monthly close above 18,500, which still does not preclude a correction from occurring." ? I've seen others' comments that have been asking for similar clarification about the DJIA. Please post in a near future forthcoming article.

James August 3, 2016

Clinton is a better bet for the white house, she more empathy and won't lead the USA into another world war. obamaid has been quite successful actually.

Deena August 4, 2016

Hillary has less inflammatory judgement,greater capacity to think through complex problems. Some real steps that would actually help families, workers and women could be advanced under her leadership. Trump is simplistic and shallow in a dangerous time period and is reactive in a belligerent" off the hip" manner. He is a no where street.

D2 August 11, 2016

James, HilLIARy is a neo-con and will more readily go to war. Trump is more of an isolationist (whats in it for the US?) and will be less likely to engage in war. This is a major reason why the "establishment" supports HilLIARy. Ypu have it all wrong. More empathetic?? Are you clueless? How empathetic was she to the Benghazi families?

Richard Stanley August 3, 2016

Larry, I view "The Donald" as being "Bruno" ..... You know ..... The guy you call to collect a debt thats past due, big time. Yes, there is way too much corruption in Politics today and I think "The Donald" would be a great choice to make corrections. As far as the economy goes, I also consider the current economic situation to be a depression. The difference between what transpired in the 1920's and 30's and now is that people now are no longer in food lines ....... but instead receive food stamps. That effectively buries the problem .... you know .... out of sight out of mind!! Furthermore, the European Union was a political solution to a problem with war! The only way to prevent wars is to educate the populations. A lot of current Europeans are well educated but the inflow of new refuges changes that picture a lot! Back in the US our basic problem in Education is the lack of a Father image in many homes ..... Black, white, Hispanic etc, etc, etc. Many parents these days who think they are progressive leave basic learning to the "system" because they are too busy running their own lives. Given 41% of our income is taxed away before it's even seen gives rise to the root of most problems. Politicians can never solve every problem we encounter. That's what's beautiful about the Constitution. Powers specifically given to the Federal Government are supposed to be limited and all other powers covered by that document are to be regulated by the states. It takes the entraprunal spirit in each of us to determine our own future! We were never any form of Democracy .... We are a Representative Republic in need of pristine representatives with the desire to serve the people, on a stste by state basis .....

MB August 4, 2016

You better talk to our potus about the limit of his powers; he just flunked the course.

Peter W August 6, 2016

Kudos to Richard Stanley for understanding type of government...can we stop counting our $$$ for a moment & make ALL 50 states put CIVICS back in the curriculum!!! If u actually care about America like all the armed forces & gov. workers do...now back to reality...what's on reality tv besides Donald Chump? Have a nice day.

Dave August 3, 2016

Trump being the worst possible candidate is like Winston S. Churchill saying, "Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others."

Richard Davis August 3, 2016

Larry, I'm "all in" on your advice. I have all the positions that you have recommended, even the GTC buy orders for the 5 gold miners. I sure hope you are right on the precious metals. As one of your Real Wealth Report subscribers, I would like to have access to the Dow 31,000 Preparedness Kit. Is there any way that I can get it? As for Trump, at least he will put conservatives on the Supreme Court. Hillary just cannot be trusted. She lies when the truth would serve better. She got into the primary with Bernie and just couldn't stop herself from cheating her opponent. She would rather take a crooked path than an honest one.

J.Jim Holmes August 3, 2016

One of our founding fathers, Thomas Jefferson predicted all that is happening if we ever let central private bankers take control of money supply. He said Central Bankers are a bigger threat than the largest standing army in world,to our constitutional government with its freedoms. On 1913 we the people allowed the president to give control of our Money Supply to the Private Bankers in the name of the Federal Reserve system. As Jefferson predicted " first by inflation and then by deflation the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Bob Schubring August 3, 2016

Larry, what makes an interesting graph for analyzing the short-term war cycles, is to plot the number of barrels of crude oil that Saudi Arabia must sell, to acquire a single ounce of gold on the commodity futures market. Wahhabi fundamentalists are the original gold bugs. Their magical views of gold and silver, stem from the fact that Mohammed discussed the weights of coinage in the Qur'an. Major political changes in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, often pivot around sudden peaks in the number of barrels of oil it takes, to purchase an ounce of gold. Most recently, we saw such a peak, when the Saudi government announced a new oil pricing policy, no longer seeking to dump oil onto world markets at the lowest price possible. Your forecast today, suggesting further pain in the form of new lows for gold in 2017, if the market fails to correct into October, has interesting political implications for the desert kingdom. As the rising trends of war and stupidity continue over the next 4 years, Saudi gold bugs have assumed that the purchasing power of their gold, is safe. After all, the whole purpose of maintaining magical beliefs about the value of gold, is to create a false sense of personal security…one needs no relationships with other people, if one's hoard of coins has the power to control their behavior. Accepting the hard reality, that people do as they choose, leads to a correct understanding of value as it arises during trade between people…someone values what I do for them, because they like it, not because of a bag of coins somewhere. Another sharp decline in gold prices, if severe enough, would drive many Wahhabi fundamentalists to re-examine their views of human relationships and the origin of value. Perhaps the outcome of that process, will point the way to the post-2020 banking and currency system that develops on Earth. My view of the desert kingdom, at present, is that if too many barrels of oil must be traded, to acquire an ounce of gold, a consensus for policy change forms, and immediate changes come about. That will get replaced by a new consensus: When people get hungry…Somalia-in-1993 hungry, gold loses some of it's attractiveness to them. The trader can make no profit, when there are no surviving customers. At times, the smartest move a trader can make, is to extend charity to those who are starving, so that once revived, they can become productive again. Trade requires trading partners…keeping them alive is sound economics. The open question, is whether Saudi billionaires learn that between now and October, or if it will take well into 2017 for the lesson to be learned…or longer. A belief that gold will continue to have value, in a world depopulated of people, is an absurdity, and it may take a shocking drop in the price of gold, for the absurdity to be understood. Of course, the same principle applies to paper political promises…the collapse of which, are the force driving gold prices higher and trust in politicians, lower.

SV August 3, 2016

Larry, May be Gold comes down from recent highs during early Oct'16, as per your AI chart. If your AI models are in place and almost accurate, we should be able to make profits during these moves also, right. Appreciate if you can help us reaping profits in weekly-monthly basis too in metals and miners during these considerable moves. Say JNUG went from $20 to $300 - this is a nice move, your AI models would have helped us in making money. Thanks ..

JAMES A GUDAHL August 3, 2016


T. Murphy August 3, 2016

Larry, Your insight is astounding - I agree - if Gold & Metals just continue to bust-up, it's sign of the end - a pullback would be better. As for Trump, he's not my first choice, but I admire his courage - I think he would take care of the 'thugs', despots, beats of the world (ISIS) so I'm in favor of that.

Jean August 4, 2016

Trump is exactly what our bankrupt economy needs.. unless we admit that America is insolvent and allow the dominoes to fall where they may, nothing gets fixed. Trump is a firm believer in the economic benefits of bankruptcy, it will not only clean out the rusty pipes, but will also clean out the political corruption and undying faith in central banksters! Bring it on, I'm ready for the total and complete collapse of the Western World!

Simon August 4, 2016

Hi Larry, Your basic approach is correct however your the timing analysis and assumptions ?? Yes a 2nd wave can retrace 100% of the W1 and when it comes most hold on and sell near the bottom. If I take the bottom from approx $300 the top was +1600US then a 50% drop to $1100. 50% re-traced in approx 4.5 years that's about 1/3 the time taken for the rise. This is likely the start of the next major wave up and some how I don't figure on a 2nd wave of this move that will give back more than 32%. I saw movement in Australian gold stocks Aug 2015. My take is more likely we will continue into Oct 7th approx. $1450 + GXD and HUI generally top a bit earlier than gold. Currently a sideways move then continuing for more disbelief.

SCOTT BENZING August 4, 2016

Once identified and understood, cycles can add significant value to the technical analysis tool box. Cycles are not perfect though. Some will miss, some will disappear and some will provide a direct hit. This is why it is important to use cycles in conjunction with other aspects of technical analysis. Trend establishes direction, oscillators define momentum and cycles anticipate turning points. Look for confirmation with support or resistance on the price chart or a turn in a key momentum oscillator.

Carlos August 4, 2016

2 reversals on the row...Jesus Christ!

Jerry August 4, 2016

Americans have a decision to make. Either stop butchering its future, read aborting babies, and refuse Hillary like the Judeans removed Johaida and stopped infanticide surviving another 250 years, or embrace Johaida's mother, Jezebel, continue butchering babies and be destroyed just like the Northern Kingdom of Israel. Our economy will be worse than the Great Depression due to our depraved nature. Too bad we don't remember John Adams' statement, "Our Constitution is made for a religious and moral people. It's wholly unsuitable for any other." Hillary with just one liberal justice will begin to destroy the 1st, 2nd and 10th Amendments.

Tom K. August 5, 2016

Larry: I watched a video about history & the beginnings of our constitution on The Fox News channel. A great refresher course on how Our founding Fathers based the Constitution on God & religion. Basically as a nation, we have fallen away from God as did Rome. We all know where that went. While The Donald is not a politician or a god, we need to forgive his bungling like a bull in a china shop. Mr.Trump is basically an honest person who recognizes this country is on a path to disaster. Under the current administration there is No hope. Hillary would simply be 4 more horrendous years of OBAMA thinking. Perhaps Mr.Trump needs to spend some time with Dr.Ben Carson, and focus on eliminating Lying Hillary, while dismissing the pundits who constantly try to bait him and start verbal fist fights. Other than Fox & Newsmax TV the entire media machine financed by George Soros is out to Destroy Mr.Trump. Sometime in the future, I predict Blood flowing in our streets brought to you by the same people who brought it to France & Germany. By the way, I follow all your recommendations, which have worked OK for me. I wonder if I should take profits soon & sell the Gold that I have accumulated to reposition later at a lower price? I am a subscriber to Real Wealth + Money & Markets, I would like to have access to the Dow 31,000 Preparedness Kit. Is there any way that I can get it, without resubscribing again?

Steve Lynham August 6, 2016

Why do people say they support a Trump Presidency and then discuss their future trading options! There will be no future. As soon as an American President indicates he/she is 'flexible' on coming to the aid of other nations then we will have military moves by Russia against Eastern Europe (perhaps some Western ones as well) and by China on Asia (especially those countries which contest China's 9-dash line). Also probably a move by North Korea against the South. Such a President would have to accept the new situation or try to force those belligerent countries back; using nuclear weapons would be the ONLY option but it would destroy the World (consider not only physical damage but also huge radiation clouds traversing the planet and a nuclear winter destroying food). The World needs a strong USA which other countries know will come to their aid if necessary; the only way to keep the wolves at bay. An isolationist USA is not feasible in the modern age as it will allow the destruction of other countries and ultimately of itself. Ronald Reagan knew about strength.

Harry Brett August 6, 2016

Friday Fallback, start buying Monday or continuing fallback to 1320 area?

Lie August 11, 2016

I believed that you already working hard for this, so when will the price of $1450 to $1500 rised? How about junior mining? Will your prediction accurate? Because i'm planning to join junior mining.

UDO August 25, 2016

Lie, Larry has no Crystal ball - if he had he would not hang around here

UDO August 25, 2016

Harry , awesome guess on your part - Aug. 25 gold fell to $ 1317

marie tasker August 11, 2016


UDO August 25, 2016

marie No caps - it's awful to read

FRED Teller August 16, 2016

Larry, dont be surprised if gdx has already made a bottom and it moves up to the hi 30's or low 40's before correcting back maybe to 29 or 30 which will be a tremendous buying opportunity

UDO August 25, 2016

Fred , GDX ? don't be surprised to see it back at $ 27 range - maybe even more to come ? The tremendous buying opportunity was early 2016 and not at $ 30