Short-Term Market Road Map and Happy Holidays!

Larry Edelson

This will be a brief column today. I hope you all enjoy a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday with family and friends. I know I will.

Of course, overseas markets are open tomorrow and Friday. But without the U.S. markets leading the way, I don’t expect much action.

My eyes are still glued to the gold market. To the dollar, to the euro. To the sovereign bond markets. To the stock market. To other commodity markets, like oil.

And you can bet that despite the holiday, I’ll be checking how all these markets and more are trading overseas.

Right now, I would like to give a glimpse at a shot-term road map for the markets. They are not recommendations. They are, however, based on my A.I. models, which, as you know, can be very accurate.

Don’t give up on the gold rally.

So here we go…

  Gold: Still has a chance to rally into a December high. Can’t be ruled out yet. It’s deeply oversold. Ditto for silver and other metals. Ditto for miners.

  Dollar: The opposite, getting very overbought, subject to a pullback.

  Euro: Short-term oversold, subject to a bounce.

  Stock market: Overbought, rally is narrowly based. Long-term very bullish; short-term overbought and subject to a correction.

  Crude oil: Recent bounce should run out of steam and oil should head lower into December and early next year. New lows below $26 a barrel expected, no matter what OPEC does or doesn’t do.

  Grain markets: Showing signs of bottoming. But too soon to say for sure. I am watching them closely.

One thing I am 100% sure of is that all these markets are finally coming to life again. After a rather bull sideways year for most markets, December and 2017 should be rocking and rolling with action and profit opportunities. The best in years.

So, for now, be thankful for all that you have and enjoy your friends and family. I’ll watch the overseas markets and will help you to protect and grow your wealth, in spades, in December and beyond.

Stay safe and best wishes,

Larry

P.S. Economic tidal waves act just like tsunamis! According to the National Geographic, the enormous energy of a tsunami can lift giant boulders, flip vehicles and demolish houses. But from a financial standpoint, the K Wave will be even worse: Millions could lose their homes. Millions more could see their lifesavings wiped out in an instant. Businesses, large and small, could close their doors. Even the bare necessities of life — food, water, clothing — might become scarce. That’s why it’s so important that you get your free copy of my new report “STOCK MARKET TSUNAMI” right away, click here to download now!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Comments 35

Michael Barb November 23, 2016

How much impact could India have if they do stop buying gold?

Reply

gordon November 23, 2016

Like about $200 an ounce

gordon November 23, 2016

Take a look at the Kitco charts gold and silver is falling apart.

Eli November 23, 2016

Hi Larry. How can you be so sure about oil going down when Russia and Saudi Arabia are so sure they will reach a deal on November 30?!! You are also one of many analysts saying the stock market rally is "narrowly based." But the Russell 2000 of small-cap stocks is also hitting new highs and those are not just a few stocks. Do you have a model to predict real estate and REIT prices? Thanks.

Reply

gordon November 23, 2016

New privately-owned housing unit starts were up by 10.1% y-o-y during the first four. Could someone explain this to me? 1/3 of households could not come up with a $1000 for an emergency, People are fighting for $15 an hour jobs. Households are over extended. House prices are increasing to about $250,000 average, 100,000,000 million people are underemployed or unemployed this is crazy. ...

Reply

Como651 November 23, 2016

Either way Larry is spot on with his prediction of possible cycle inversion in gold or breakout in December. It will be one or the other. Since I've not sold my miners I predict it will be a cycle inversion. One thing I'm really good at is betting the wrong way in the stock markets. Most likely outcome is gold goes so low well into next year that mining companies stop mining because cost of operations exceed income from gold. Mining ETFs will crumble and many junior minors will file for bankruptcy. Calling it like I see it.

Reply

Doomsayer November 23, 2016

3rd order cycle inversion by approximately 6-8 months readjust your predictions . gold headed to 800.

Reply

Como651 November 23, 2016

I'd like to know what could possibly drive gold higher in December? India is banning gold imports and already banned large denomination bills used in buying gold. FED is raising rates. Economy looks to be improving. Trump tax cuts and deregulation will stimulate economy for near term most likely well into 2018. Dollar is rising so what could possibly cause gold to recover in December or ever crack 2000 for at least another year or more? I can't think of one possible variable to exert upward pressure on gold prices.

Reply

F151 November 23, 2016

It's oversold.

Karl November 23, 2016

When is the stock market crash "correction" of 2016 going to occur? (Dow drops to 14,000 or lower). At various times last year and this, Larry's cycles foretold a big drop this year, but nothing so far. Or has something changed, and the Dow will go to 31,000 without any significant drop, only some dips, in between now and then? On the same topic, the Dow, and S&P 500 and maybe other indexes are making new highs. Are these rather stable, or are they what's called a 'blow off' top, after which the markets make a big drop, maybe crash (-20% or more)?

Reply

Craig Bradley November 23, 2016

COUNTER VIEW I see gold going in the opposite direction as we move into and past the Holiday season into a brand new year. Gold may indeed rally, as Larry and his software predict, but it probably will not hold. This time, gold, silver, oil, and commodities will all go downward together while stocks go up in early 2017, but gold will go down the hardest. The good news for all who are reading is my next personal buy-in price per ounce is right around $800-$850 ounce. Its coming next year, despite predictions of a bull move up. Not Yet. Looking forward to my next gold purchase, as I continue from a year ago "buying the dips" and gradually and slowly adding to my position. No computer program, even "A.I." can equal good instincts. Same with shooting. If you have instincts, you don't need the sights to hit the target at close range (short term). Good instincts trump all.

Reply

Eli November 23, 2016

Jim Roger's agrees with you. He has spent the last 3 years saying not to buy gold until it hits $800

Como651 November 23, 2016

I'm afraid you are going to be right. Looking at historical gold price charts we are still in a massive gold bubble. Even the recession of the 80s did very little to drive up gold prices. The biggest drive up in gold prices already happened during the aftermath of the recent housing bust in 2008 when everyone thought all the big banks were going to fail. It took the thought of complete world financial collapse to do it. For gold to get back to historical levels we are looking at it going back down to $600-$800 range. Not sure where Larry came up with his model since it defies common sense and all historical evidence. Maybe he's some kind of genius but I'm starting to lose faith in his forecasting. I'm hoping for a short term rally to test $1500 so I can get out with minimal loses. So far I'm down a good 20% since backing up the truck. My instincts were telling me not to but Larry sounds so convincing and his charts were looking spot on until Trump won the election. The whole world has been turned upside down.

Bob November 23, 2016

For centuries there have been 2 forms of real wealth and money and they are not the worthless yen or the more worthless euro or the over printed unbacked fiat u s dollar

Reply

john November 23, 2016

With limited funds is it time to buy and b hold S&P 500 for ride to 31000? Or is it time to also buy gold..to hold.?

Reply

Justin November 23, 2016

Gold and silver both made 9-month long head and shoulder tops and are on their way down to retest the bottoms set late last year. This current action should finish up early next month. Then it will be off to the races again. Forget the robot, just read the charts.

Reply

Como651 November 23, 2016

Why do you think gold will go up again after it retests last years bottom. Look at historical charts of the last 40 plus years. We are still in a big fat gold bubble and even last years low is still a good $300 or more an ounce where gold should be. A price target of $700 is more realistic and that will be enough to put every single mining company out of business. GDX and GDXJ ETFs will close and we will all be sent a check for a few dollars because that's all our investments will be worth then. How long do you think these mining companies will last with gold at $700 an ounce? Most of them sitting on debt. Even the most profitable big miners won't survive. They will shut down all operations. They have already sold off assets and taken drastic cost cutting measures. What is Larry's big reason for thinking gold is going to reach new highs and even $5000 an ounce? He says his models predict it but what is the algorithm he's using? My instincts and all the price pressures and historical charts saying the opposite of Larry. Has Larry explained his reasoning or has he only said his models predict it? Anybody have an answer?

Al McNal November 23, 2016

Thanks for your view on these markets. It is obviously stressful to see them going the wrong way big time. Glad you at least acknowledge your viewpoint.

Reply

John.Annesley November 23, 2016

Nobody seems to know what's happening with gold It depends on rising interest rates,the higher dollar and inflation expectations None of which, in the short term are good for gold except for inflation expectations The credit crisis would be good for gold but it may not happen for a long time In the meantime I guess we can only buy short term puts & calls & play the volatility

Reply

Ferrari fred November 23, 2016

Tell us about the Muslims buying Gold at the end of the year! Also your take on India not buying Gold.

Reply

Judi November 23, 2016

Wishing you and your family and guests a wonderful Thanksgiving! God Bless.

Reply

Gene November 23, 2016

Hi Larry, I hope you and your family have a wonderful Thanksgiving. With all you do for people, it is well deserved.

Reply

Richard Randag November 24, 2016

Have a great holiday and give the family the time they deserve

Reply

Hobbzee November 25, 2016

Thanks Larry, just the fact that your usually accurate AI models look like they're inverting seems to me like a good time to be holding onto a months supply of rainy day physical cash in denominations you can easily change, more so than physical gold. Hope all you US folk have a happy thanksgiving; Black Friday here in the UK so off to the shops :)

Reply

Uncle Chaser November 25, 2016

Things that could be good for gold. Dec. 4th Italian vote. Dec. 6th and 31st Sharia gold announcements. Surprise Dec 13th Fed not raising interest rate. Unlikely but possible martial law before Jan. 20th.

Reply

Uncle Chaser November 25, 2016

Also most people predicting a slide lower in oil prices increases mining profitability. I too over invested in GDX GDXJ SLW on Rickards advice right before the election. A trade I also made a profit on just before and after Brexit. I bought at 1301, with my commissions I could break even at maybe 1320 . Who knew that 2 billionaires could trash the gold market by placing trades in the middle of the night when we can't. A lot of people say things are no longer making sense in the markets. Who would have ever thought 1 or 2 rich people could ruin it for others.

Reply

Como651 November 28, 2016

Yes but you have to ask the question why did a couple of big time investors dump their gold if real market forces are driving up demand. Maybe the fundamentals do not exist and that is why they dumped. A FED rate hike in December is enough to send gold down to 1150ish levels then the mere thought of Trump cutting corporate taxes will prevent any rebound in gold until the DOW is 30,000 and investors flee stocks because the bubble risk is too big. That could take 2-3 years and by then gold will be around $800 an oz. mining ETFs will be worth next to nothing by then if mining companies file chapter 11. Gold is already trading under the all in overhead costs of most miners. Mining gold at this point is losing money. They will need to burn cash or find creditors that believe a rebound is eminent soon or face chapter 11. These ETFs like GDX and GDXJ could close and everyone holding shares will get sent a check for whatever your paltry shares are worth then. Larry may be right about $5,000 gold eventually but if his timing is off by three years anyone backing up the truck now will be ruined. I hope that does not happen and Larry is some sort of investment savant. If gold rallies by the end of this year and goes to new highs I'll be the first to say Larry is a brilliant gold forecaster but right now it's not looking to good for Larry or anyone who recently bought thinking the bottom was in.

Uncle Chaser November 25, 2016

Indians will just smuggle gold in if the Government there bans it. It is part of their culture.

Reply

Chris November 26, 2016

Larry was the ONLY financial guy I follow who correctly called Golds peak (about$1900) a few years ago and then it's sell off. There is nothing strong about this economy, smoke, mirrors and manipulation in my view. I'll stick With Larry.

Reply

Como651 November 28, 2016

Larry had a 25% chance to get both calls right. His odds drop to a 12.5% chance of getting it right a third time. It's starting to look like Larry's luck may have run out. If Larry is right again then probability alone will suggest he really knows what he's talking about. I've been reading Larry's articles for years. He seems like a very smart person but even the smartest people can get too confident in themselves and tunnel visioned and blow a call. If gold does not go through a cycle inversion but instead makes a new high or reaches $5000 in the next few years Larry will be the undisputed gold forecasting champion of the world. There are other forecasters like Dent who have also been accurate but are now calling the opposite of Larry. This is the showdown. Edelson vs Dent for the heavyweight championship. We will know who the undisputed champion is in the next few years or maybe both will be wrong and gold trades sideways at just over the cost of production for several years.

Rob November 26, 2016

I read this in a Qatar newspaper this week :- The Shariah Gold Standard will be introduced next month. According to the World Gold Council. this will allow 1.6 billion Muslims, who until now have been unable to trade gold, to now participate along with their Western brethren. The WGC also anticipates that the Muslim based countries, their Central Banks, will also start to accumulate gold to stabilize their currencies. Now here comes the mind boggling bit. The World Gold Council estimates this total investment could reach $20 trillion by the year 2025.So, I'm wondering, .......................... 1) Where is all that gold going to come from ? 2) or will the price of gold in 2025 accommodate that additional demand ? Dinars anyone ?

Reply

Jon November 28, 2016

Has Larry incorporated an Indian gold import ban into his model? What is price, and timeframe then? Can Mr.larry please write to that. As for Shariah Gold law allowing gold purchases soon for muslims, do you not think that all gold traders and futures desks and central banks know this too? It's already in the price, meaning, it'll have no effect. Please Mr.Larry write about India . thank you

Reply

Uncle Chaser November 28, 2016

I made my Brexit bet before I found Larry's writings. Fortunately I started following Larry this summer. It was because of his advice I closed out my Brexit gold trade when I did and made a good profit. After that I guess I got a little cocky and thought I could do the same before the Trump surprise. I could be screwed but I believe in gold and silver as God's creation. No matter what happens on my market bet I will keep physical until they pry it from my cold dead fingers.

Reply

Jerry Koppel January 6, 2017

Damn it. I was in the process of writing a comment when you timed me out. Thanks for wasting my time. Your "Wave Reports" often double the width and height of my computer monitor, which prevents me from quickly reading the email. Your type size is so large that too many pages of print out results. Eliminate the click ons for additional reports that "we might be interested". Don't waste our time. Make your reports precise, direct, and to the point so we can quickly read your reports.

Reply

Jerry Koppel January 6, 2017

Just to put everything in perspective, I do look forward to reading your reports. I just do not appreciated having my time wasted.

Reply