Must See Chart: ALL Eyes On Gold Now!

Larry Edelson

Here’s a forecast chart I’ve been showing to members of my Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader this year. It is a must-see chart.

It’s a form of artificial intelligence, called a neural net, a forecasting model I use. This chart is of gold, and includes all known fixed and dynamic cycles that impact gold’s price.

The program finds the probable cycles in gold’s price fluctuations, dynamically updates them with billions of calculations, and then it projects forward a synthesis of those cycles to show the probable path of price.

The green line is the forecast line. The black line, the actual closing price of gold.


Click image for larger view

Uncanny, eh? This is one of the main tools I use for forecasting, not just in gold, but in all markets.

Now, let’s get to the exciting stuff. Remember I told you that this November was shaping up to be an ideal target low for gold? Throughout the year I mentioned it several times in this column. Just a few weeks ago I also told you that gold’s October rally was nothing but a bounce.

And now look at gold: It topped right on cue in mid-October and since then gold has plunged from its October forecast cycle high — shedding $108, a whopping 9.1% in less than a month — and is now plunging into a November low.

In the words of the late and great Jackie Gleason, “How sweet it is!”

So what’s next for gold? Can gold move still lower? Will this be a major bottom in gold?

What about the subsequent rally that is forecast on this chart (green line)? What should you do about it?

Let me answer those questions now …

FIRST, as this forecast chart clearly shows, gold can indeed move lower — into Wednesday, November 25.

That does not mean gold will continue to go straight down. Gold has already lost $108 since mid-October and is oversold on a short-term basis. So don’t be surprised if you see a mild bounce or two. But according to the forecast models, gold should — yes — head lower into November 25.

How low can it go? This is the tricky part. Cycles do not tell you much about price. They are about timing and turning points. My other tools come into play to determine price forecasts, and here is the bottom line:

A. Gold has major support at the nearby former low from July at $1,074. That low may hold temporarily, but it should give way heading into November 25. Once it does give way …

B. Gold’s major support levels will then be found at $1,063 … $1,035 … $1,005 … $984 … and the $905 to $890 area.

Right now, it’s simply too soon to say. But I suspect, based on early indications from my price projection tools, that gold will fall to at least the $1,035 level.

Ideally, I would like to see gold fall below $1,000. That would scare the dickens out of almost every gold investor on the planet, thereby setting up the market for an even more powerful rally to follow.

SECOND, and very importantly, as to whether or not this will be a major bottom in gold, here’s what we need to see …

A. For the move down to qualify as a major, final low in gold’s bear market since 2011, gold must break the former low at $1,074 and test the next major support level at $1,035.

B. If gold holds the prior $1,074 low — or falls through it but does not test major support at the $1,035 level — then odds are that it will NOT be a major, final low and that instead, gold will then rally, but decline again into April 2016 to yet another new, low.

If that is the case, then the new low that occurs in April 2016 will likely be around the $1,000 level, and it would then be the final low.

Either way, gold is nearing a final, major low. Hopefully, it will come sooner rather than later, in April of next year.

THIRD, as to the rally forecast on this chart, yes, it’s likely going to be a doozie! Moreover, that rally is likely to occur whether or not gold breaks its prior low at $1,074.

Stay tuned …

Best wishes,

Larry

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 13

Robert P November 11, 2015

Thanks, Larry, for your report. So, since gold has basically been moving opposite of the stock market now for awhile, are you indicating that the market will top out in late Nov.?

scott November 11, 2015

Larry, You displayed graphs of the gold cycles in your 08-21 flash and 11-10 update reports. I compared the graphs and see that the graphs are different. I understand that a graph will change, depending upon factors that arise subsequent to the publishing of the graph. But that would only change future projections of the graph. The 11-10 graph should have the same cycle shown for the period up to 08-21 as the cycles shown on the 08-21 graph as of the 08-21 date. But yours differ. Meaning that the cycles for a period up through 08-21, an historical cycle and not a projected cycle, should be the same on both the 08-21 flash report and the 11-10 update. But they're not. Why?

$1,000 gold November 11, 2015

hence the name $1,000 gold.

$1,000 gold November 11, 2015

i've been waiting a couple years to say that.

Robert P November 11, 2015

1,000...no offense but , given the track record, you could be waiting awhile longer... may need to hear the peeps before we start counting our little chickens!

$1,000 gold November 11, 2015

it will go below $1,000 and you're right, it will take some time.

Heather November 11, 2015

Notice again no mention of the DOW - where is that down leg that is going to scare the dickens out of everyone, except Larry cause he forsaw it all coming and kept his subscribers on the sidelines waiting to play the bottom.

Trey November 11, 2015

Armstrong is been best at predicting gold in recent years but what happens if he's wrong this time? Everyone will go all in on gold only to find it declining or at best going sideways and not doing anything. We live in the electronic age, central banks can keep the system afloat with push of a button. Former Fed chairman Bernanke averted major crisis in 2008 with the experimental QE and it worked, now everyone has a model to follow.

Robert P November 11, 2015

Trey, evidently the jury's still out on whether this "grand experiment" has actually worked or not. And from what I read, this is NOT unprecedented....only, right after the crash of 1929, wealthy individuals were the ones who bought stock to bolster the market. Rumor got out that they were buying, so the thought on the street was "They must know something...!" Consequently, everyone jumped in and bought...and the market rallied...for awhile.......and THEN it came crashing down! THIS time, the market is so much larger, it is the central bankers who are trying to bolster the markets...around the world, BUT, it's not even real money they're using now!!

John T November 11, 2015

Even if the chart Larry shows is half wrong, know this, from Oct 15, 2015 thru today, the gold spot market has been down 17 of the last 20 days - THIS IS UNPRECEDENTED - something is about to change and we may be witnessing a bottom in process.

Robert P November 11, 2015

I've heard it said "you can't drink yourself sober....and you can't borrow your way out of debt!!" I believe that's a very true statement, and a good (but sad) commentary on our situation now.

John T November 11, 2015

If you do not learn from the past, you will repeat the past. The big bank money managers created the great depression, and it is the money managers who will create another, again.

$1,000 gold November 12, 2015

starting to look like we might be in the "bear trap." when i'm scared to buy, i'll double down.