Gold, Silver and Other Important Questions You Have!

Larry Edelson

I hope you’ve been watching gold and silver. They’ve been moving nicely lower, right on target with my cycle forecast for a potential major low later this month.

Just in case you missed it last week, I have the forecast chart today. As you will clearly see, gold is following its cyclic destiny, to the tee. Silver’s outlook is pretty much the same.

Click image for larger view

That said, I thought I’d take this opportunity to answer your most pressing questions on the precious metals.

After all, they are the markets where there is the most amount of mis-information out there.

And the markets that most pundits seem to completely misunderstand. So let’s get right to those questions.

Q: Larry, you’ve been right as rain about deflation. So how could gold and silver bottom when deflation seems to be picking up steam?

A: There are numerous reasons. But the most important is the following:

Precious metals can do well in either extreme. Extreme inflation, or extreme deflation.

In fact, historically, gold gains the most purchasing power during periods of deflation, not inflation. The reason for that is also simple: During extreme deflation, the debt and credit structure of the world’s monetary system — especially sovereign debt — come under increasing stress.

As such, savvy, big money starts to seek out hedges against collapsing sovereign debt. Hence, new bull markets in precious metals can be born, even during deflation.

That is exactly what is happening now. As long as gold makes a major low by the end of the month (other precious metals too), then it is quite possible we will see brand new bull markets.

Q: Oil is tanking again. Do you expect it to fall much below $30 a barrel?

A: Yes, I do. My models, technical and cyclical, point to oil moving below $30 by the first quarter of next year. Probably to around $26.

Hard to believe, given all in the geo-political instability in the world. But all that is overshadowed by Europe’s dying economy, Japan’s slumping economy, China’s modest slowing, and the U.S.’s muddle through economy.

Moreover, oil inventories in developed nations now stand at a record 3 billion barrels, with no end in sight as OPEC nations keep the pedal to the metal on supplies, trying to choke off competition from U.S. producers.

There will, of course, be bounces in the price of oil, but overall, oil is headed much lower.

Q: The stock market can’t seem to breakout to the upside. But it can’t seem to pullback much either. What gives?

A: Three things:

First, I believe the market’s resilience is a testament to its long-term strength. As I have said all along, the Dow is headed to 31,000+.

Second, looking simply at the Dow Industrials, or even the S&P 500, is deceiving. The majority of publicly traded U.S. stocks are down for the year, with as many as 39% down more than 15%. The Dow Jones Transports, the Dow Utilities, the Russell 2000 — are all down and weaker than the main indices.

So in a very real sense, U.S. equities are already in a stealth pullback. Odds are that the Dow Industrials and S&P 500 will soon succumb too.

Nevertheless, keep in mind that any pullback you see will merely serve to get the majority of investors bloodied and bearish. The long-term trend is higher.

Q: I can’t believe how accurate you have been when in late 2012 you forecast a rise in global stress and geopolitics. Since then we have seen the rise of ISIS, Boko Haram, a worsening of the war in Syria. Putin takeover Crimea. Now the terrible Paris attack. How much worse can it get?

A:  Unfortunately, a lot worse. We are still early in the cycle, which calls for rising social and international stress and discontent to rise all the way in to late 2020.

Europe is the hotbed, and will be the entire time. The refugee crisis has allowed terrorists to infiltrate Europe, and Europe is also buckling under the financial stress of providing for as many as two million refugees.

But don’t kid yourself. You will soon see all of this migrate to Japan, then to the U.S. as well.

Not just terrorism, but civil discontent too. Protests against government. Secession movements. And more. It will get very ugly.

Q: Do you believe gold and silver will eventually be confiscated?

A: No, I do not. Why would governments move to confiscate them when what they want to do is make them obsolete? Confiscating gold or silver would send the opposite message; that they are too important to be in the hands of investors.

This is also why I believe investors, when buying gold or silver, should opt for ingots and bars. Why pay premiums of 4 to 7% on bullion coins when you don’t have to?

Governments of the world are not interested in gold or silver. They are more interested and will expend more effort, moving toward electronic money and eliminating cash, so they can track and tax you more.

Q: Will inflation ever come back?

A: Yes. But not until the current monetary system crashes and burns, via deflation and sovereign debt defaults.

Q: Bitcoin crashed, just as you predicted. But now it’s rallying again. What are your thoughts on Bitcoin?

A: I still wouldn’t touch it. It’s too thin a market, and too subject to government interference.

That said, there may come a time when it does indeed go mainstream. The monetary system is breaking down even more quickly than I had expected. And there may be a future role for Bitcoin in investors’ portfolios. But right now, no.

Best wishes,


P.S. I just released my new report, “7 Commodity Windfalls for 2015-2021,” that could prove to be the most profitable report you read all year.

It’s free. There’s no obligation, no strings attached — and it could make you very, very rich.

Click this link to read it now!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 24

David RAbin November 18, 2015

Could you please put your course on silver and gold in hard copy. Thanks.

Ron November 18, 2015

Larry, thanks for everything you do and keeping all your followers informed . I am keeping a close watch on the gold charts , staying alert to your info reports. It looks like the French are striking back on ISIS , with more nations coming together to help out , will the oil depletion of oil reserves you mentioned in your latest report , could oil be depleted faster escalating a change in oils bottom and possible higher prices sooner . And what are the chances we will recognize a sign as to OPECs depleted supplies has finally happened.

candida corradini November 18, 2015

larry when you go out with the real report of November please do not transcribed inviarceelo fit webinar please

Adrian November 18, 2015

Hi Larry, you have not mentioned the general stock market forecasts these past two weekly emails. I sure do feel left out on my own after following your recommendations.

earlplus5 November 18, 2015

Larry, I am in the same boat. I still have current positions in the market per your earlier rec's in spxs, uvxy, and dxd. Should we even be in those still? If not, I missed your rec's to get out of them. What are your rec's on these positions? Pls advise a.s.a.p

David Andersen November 18, 2015

Larry, I have been an avid follower of your research for some time. Subscribe to Real Wealth and Supercycle Trader and don't miss a report or scheduled calls. Did I miss a revised forecast of an August retest low and lower?

Barrie Owen November 18, 2015

Thank You for THE TRUTH, and all your hard work and commitment. I also believe that there are scary times ahead due primarily to the same reasons as yourself. Thank You once again, We need you . Barrie Owen.

Verne Collier November 18, 2015

Larry: I really appreciate all of your forecasts . What I really like - for those of us who are overly anxious - is your constant updating. That alone helps me sleep better. We expect changes and you help us stay on top of what is going on Keep up that good work! My Best, Verne

Don Gascoigne November 18, 2015

I have never used options before. What is a good primer for me to understand this investment tool? I do not need to be a so called expert, I just need to be aware of the basic does and don'ts. Thanks for all that you do. Don.

Brad Bartels November 18, 2015

Larry, with the price of silver and gold moving lower to its bottom later this month, could you recommend a put option trade for each metal so we can maximize our profit potential for this move?

J Sanderson November 18, 2015

Congrats on your metals call so far. You gave the reasons for oil falling to $ 25, but what would then be the reasons for it shooting to $ 150? Will all the fore mentioned economies be picking up again?

Mike K November 18, 2015

Larry, How firm are you that we will see a stock crash this month before the bull market resumes?

earlplus5 November 18, 2015

My question too. Has the bull to 31k already begun. Isn't foreign $ especially from Europe flowing in already?

John B November 18, 2015

Hi Larry, Thanks for your solid advice, but my question is when gold and silver bottom potentially this month does that include gold miner ETF's should start to move up right along with it? Or is there a lag time before we should start getting into gold miner ETF's? On a second note, are you still expecting a downturn in the markets before we start the climb to 31,000 in the DOW? Thanks for your help.

Boss Hog November 18, 2015

Thanks for you super duper cycle work Larry - although it sounds exactly like Armstrongs I'm sure it's just your proton galaxy super blaster computer crunching out forecasts inconceivable to mankind. Although you've called many gold bottoms since 2011 - "I can almost taste it" I'm sure sooner or later you'll be right as rain, again.

EJ Dechow November 18, 2015

In 2008 gold and silver stocks bottomed before bullion. Will this occur this time or are they happening at the same time?

Ken November 18, 2015

One writer praised you for being right on the prediction for more terrorism? That's a bit of a no-brainer isn't it? The religion of peace is just getting started bringing us peace. Interestinly Mr. Edelson doesn't say what happens after 2020. That's a real whopper of a story. Can you say AC?

DW November 18, 2015

I have not seen anyone address the topic of 90% silver and the elimination of cash. If cash is removed for electronic currency, will one be forced to turn in their 90% silver. Will it become illegal or simply go/stay underground. Would it be redeemed at face value or silver content value. How do you think this might unfold?

Tim November 18, 2015

Larry comments that governments are unlikely to confiscate gold and silver because they are trying to make them obsolete. Why would gold climb to $5,000 if they succeed?

$1,000 gold November 18, 2015

is bitcoin really special? is there really a difference between a digital currency and paypal, for instance? or master card or visa, for that matter? or a cash card? aren't these all technically digital currencies? in a way bitcoin has been around a long, long time, just in a different form.

$1,000 gold November 18, 2015

i the fed begins liftoff on the funds rate, this will help imports to the usa, which in turn will help the world's economies. a long-term benefit to the usa.

jrj90620 November 18, 2015

Sure hope Larry's prediction is correct.This is the first time I can remember,that he has issued a buy signal,without any hedging.So Larry,you won't be able to talk your way out,if gold goes below $1K or doesn't begin rising,by the end of Mar 2016.You will be famous,if correct and history,if not.Real high,risk/reward ratio for you.

Dan L. November 18, 2015

Will you be re-recommending the EUO to RWR subscribers ?

Patrick November 18, 2015

Hi Larry, What is your take on Thanks,.