More on gold …

Gold’s bounced a bit, and now, everyone wants my head. They figure — again — that gold is ready to blast off to $1,300 … then $1,350 … then $1,500 and even higher, without ever looking back.

They say the background environment for gold — and other precious metals and mining shares — has never been more bullish.

I say, baloney! Yes, gold has bottomed, last December. Yes, gold, the precious metals and miners are in new bull markets that will see much higher prices and could last for years.

But no way are the metals or miners going straight up from here. No way are they on a rocket rise that will never look back. And no way should you jump on board with both feet. You’ll surely lose it all.

For one thing, gold is still extremely overbought. It would be very hard for gold to make much upside progress being so overbought.

For another, according to the most recent Commitments of Traders report (COT), gold and silver still have way too many speculative long positions open versus commercial short positions.

That’s a recipe for a hard fall, not a continued rally.

For yet another, the precious metals are entering the seasonally weak summer months, a period of lackluster physical demand around the globe.

And for yet another, Janet Yellen is still poised — in my opinion — to raise rates in June, rather than July. Even if I’m wrong, so what? Then she will likely raise rates in July.

Then, of course, there’s the U.S. dollar, which is still holding its own, biding its time, but ready to break out to the upside again, and soon.

I also urge you to take another look at the Artificial Intelligence forecast chart of gold that I showed you last week, repeated here.


Click image for larger view

That forecast has not changed!

What about silver, platinum, and palladium?

All pretty much the same. They will follow gold’s lead.

What about the mining sector, which has started to pull back?

I’m as anxious as you are to load up on miners. But they too are extremely overbought and overvalued right now.

In fact, according to a recent report from Morgan Stanley Australia, miners are now extremely overvalued. Example: Newcrest Mining (NCM.Australia) trading at $21.76 Australian Dollars, compared to fair value of $A12.90. That’s 68% overvalued.

Northern Star Resources (NST.Australia) trading at $A4.74 compared to fair value of $A3.45. That’s 38% overvalued.

Morgan Stanley is right. Be patient: The pullback I have forecasted has started, is still on track, and should bottom later this month.

Then it will be time to load up!

Best wishes, as always …

Larry

P.S. As the Dow doubles, some stocks will see explosive gains of 300%, 400%, 500% and more. To help you get ready to take full advantage of the bull market of a lifetime, I want to send you a complete Dow 31,000 Preparedness Kit — five distinct free reports! The first free report spells out step-by-step what you must do now to position yourself for amazing profits (and protection) over the next two years. Click here to download now!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 70

Edward June 8, 2016

If gold is going to 5000, then how can you lose at 1250 ? Even if it goes back to 1000, in 2 years that won't matter one bit! And just in case it doesn't pullback that far, we are locked in around 1200.... Tx

Daniel Martinez June 8, 2016

I told him that a few times...if you bought in December and don't mind keeping it a few years and IF his predictions of getting to 5000 how can you lose?

victor June 8, 2016

You are wrong. If you use compound calculator you see that is hell lot of difference over a long time say 10 yrs, this 1000$ turn to 1200$ at 2% pa.

victor b. coster July 7, 2016

think you are all wet in your forcast for gold.You have alredy seen Brexit,what happens if the MARKET now goes SOUTH?? xpect you will be pulling in your forcast any day now!

Jake541 July 7, 2016

Victor so what should i do? My portfolio is up 40-100% due to positions i took back in February, but it seems my resolve has weakened as of late. Should i reduce my positions further so i can at least let my mind rest a bit?

Scott June 8, 2016

Overbought and oversold are not absolute sometimes the underlying can extend their trends for long periods of time, causing people to miss trades. If you want to get in or out just use the 50 day simple moving averages. Gold and Silver & the miners have just crossed back above them today and recently. Know one knows the future and the 21st of June is only 2 weeks away. I got in JNUG back in January.

Rick June 8, 2016

Dude, you are awesome giving me hope like this! Sooooo, umm, where is gold headed for a low this month? Where is GDX headed for a low this month? Are we going lower in gold and gdx than we were the few days prior to the NFP 38,000 number?

Mekand June 8, 2016

Yes if you are not going sell the gold so what is the matter? How low gold will it go, than can buy as you in End of June?

J Sanderson June 8, 2016

I don't see where your forecast chart is showing the current $ 55 rally that has been happening in the gold market.

John T June 8, 2016

That is not included, you only have two (2) weeks for it to fall 200 points, which is not likely at this point.

Al June 8, 2016

I am all-in gold mining shares. The bottom is in and the dollar has no strength. The jobs report changed the sentiment in the market. Long RIC GDXJ GDX

Michael b June 8, 2016

The mining sector has had such an impressive run since February a lot of stocks are up a couple hundred percent I'm a little frustrated with the missing out on that . Today on June 8th mining shares are up 5, 6 percent and testing new 52 week highs.

tom June 8, 2016

Ii do not see any int/rate hike in either june or july

BREXIT please June 8, 2016

I fear things are not as rosy in fed land as janet yellen is saying why else consider raising interest rates 2 % in this economy maybe because a recession has already started and she needs a little ammo in her gun to stimulate the economy

Todd June 8, 2016

I feel the same way. We have to consider the context of the Fed hinting at increases in interest rates for more months than I can count at this point, and except for one infinitesimal increase, it has not happened. I think the Fed understands what would happen if they really raise rates, especially by any meaningful amount. Its desire to be generally noncommittal keeps everyone guessing and keeps the stock market averages, for now, running in a fairly narrow band; but I don't expect a rate increase for the foreseeable future, and certainly not more than one at 0.25% offered for the sake of appearance.

Stephen June 8, 2016

Time for me take more profit this morning. I like the bounce in gold so I can sell more. I look forward to the low this summer to buy again.

j June 8, 2016

Is it a good time to buy stock ? S & P 500 that is. Where is that market going? Larry you have not had a post on that topic in a long time. Or a chart.

George June 8, 2016

A lot of people smarter than I am have been saying the S&P has been in a topping formation for the last several months be cautious and ready to bail if you do Buy in.

Sandor June 8, 2016

Still holding DUST even though it is being crushed. The rebound should be commensurate with the correction. Patience rules.

John Sweeney June 8, 2016

Larry, been waiting to hear your view after the admittedly scary Gold spike a few days ago. Short of further shocks alongside the recent bad US jobs figures such as a Brexit vote to leave the EU, (which as a UK citizen I think most will shy away from when the time comes even though just about every UK citizen I know hates how the EU is run. I understand its books still not signed off each year by auditors after 40 years because no-one can explain to them where all the money is disappearing?) I agree that we should stay patient until Gold settles back down and in the meantime I am looking for a truck to back up!

James June 8, 2016

Larry if you say late June will be the time to "load-up"-- Then I'm looking at your artificial intelligence chart and doesn't it indicate gold falling back to almost those levels again by late August? When does this rocket ride to $5,000 oz begin?

David S. June 8, 2016

Having missed the first (and best by far) opportunity, I suspect Larry doesn't want to miss the second opportunity even if there's a third. I think that's wise. Whether it's UNwise to load up right now we shall only see in hindsight. KGC has a nice gain so far. I wish I'd also bought the others irrespective of reco'd prices.

UDO June 8, 2016

Sandor by the time gold breaks down you will find DUST back at $ 2 - AGAIN !!!!.

Better Early June 11, 2016

This whole idea of picking a point when the so-called bottom is in is just a mug's game. Nobody can really predict the bottom. If so, why have big players like Dallio, Druckenmiller, Soros, ever more hedge funds, family offices etc etc already built up large physical positions in gold. Just accumulate every month ad hope you have enough because if you wait for this mythical bottom you may find you can't get any gold at any price. Better 6 months too early than 5 minutes too late :))

Nick June 8, 2016

We have a lot of ingredients for instability coming up in the next month, specifically: 1) The Next Fed meeting on 6/15 which is likely to keep rates on hold. 2) The BoJ meeting on 6/16 which is likely to announce helicopter money. 3) The German Court Ruling on buying bonds on 6/21 which is likely to depress the Euro. 4) BREXIT vote on 6/23 which may well surprise everyone. 5) The Spanish General Election on 6/26 which could weaken the Euro. All of these issues are bullish for Gold over the rest of this month and could send Gold up to $1500 before it goes back down again. We will see who is right I guess.

MadMax2012 June 8, 2016

I dunno.. chart is still looking like a high flag to me! although I was influenced by Larrys call and got out of my KGI last month right at the top after making 180%, hoping to buy back lower in the next month or so, but it's now higher than the previous top...I hope youre right Larry. In hind sight I should have piecing in at 1100 and 1200 and then again at the return to 1200 leaving a little powder for this next predicted pullback, that way I would have all the bases covered, but now I'm sitting here empty waiting to bat a homerun on this "coming pullback" going to be a tense waiting game...

Al June 8, 2016

Everytime it pulls back a little bit buy plysical gold and silver.the whole system is cracking. .. it's got a lot more up side than down side

Jim June 8, 2016

Larry's prior AI model for gold projected a May 31 low. That has been spot on. One has to question the accuracy of the ensuing "updated" model which shifted the bottom out to June 24. How ironic would it be if May 31 turns out to be the bottom?

grman June 8, 2016

The world is very unstable economically. Things are going on that I have never seen in my life. Money printing based on nothing, nirp, zirp, Massive global debt, Massive private debt, Massive corporate debt, without any realistic way of paying it back. These are just a FEW of my concerns. I have no faith in the federal reserve. I have no faith in our government to handle OUR money in any responsable way. How can anyone NOT be invested in gold in some way? Central banks are buying it, at the same time telling everyone one its a terrible investment. China, Russia, and countless other countries are buying all they can. PLEASE, do not tell me how terrible of an investment gold is. This makes no sense in todays world!

JR June 8, 2016

My two favorite precious metals: 1. Lead 2. Brass

Michael b June 8, 2016

So first Majestic Silver is hitting 13$ today ... a run for 2.80 low in February. Even if it falls back to 8$ that's not really a great buy point. Most of the silver mining company's are hitting 52 week highs today. I HOPE THIS FALL IS BIG! because if it's not these mining company's are not really going to be that great of a buy. I really feel like I've missed out on a huge opportunity to make the largest gains in this sector. The bounce off the bottom is always where you make the biggest gains.

HHN June 8, 2016

Larry, I don't want your head... your advice will suffice. I don't sweat the absolute 'bottoms' and 'tops'. Others may chase the nebulous clouds that represent the bottom and top 15%... I'm happy with the 70% in between.

Bob G June 8, 2016

Several experienced analysts say to buy gold NOW no matter what the price. We can't risk a spike from an unforeseen event. In the long run it won't matter whether you buy at $1260 or $1200. It seems that Larry's model is based on the stock market past, but stocks are not where the problems are now; rather, bonds are. This market is not behaving as it usually did.

Dan June 8, 2016

Larry, Dow near new highs. Is the market going to correct as you suggested? We missed the big run up from 15,400.

anthony g June 8, 2016

mike Larson seems to agree with Larry Edelson on the dow pull back. The real economy is a fraud.

Beverly June 8, 2016

I am buying more since I think for the next 8 trading days gold will go up, up, up, Boom, boom, boom, time to make some money.

smitty June 8, 2016

Worried about a pull back in gold...Worried about the Fed raising rates...Worried about the recession in the US...bull markets climb a wall of worry. The low was in Dec 2015, unless your a VERY short term investor you better hop on before you miss all of the first 200% gains available!

Swindle June 8, 2016

I didn't receive larrys June news letter!!!

paul June 11, 2016

you didn't miss much. he now says gold isn't going to skyrocket and that gold is over bought? This reminds me of Pelosi saying this week that the government created the smart phone? I say that the world economy collapse is coming very soon and in my opinion precious metals is going to be the only sound investment. I figure it this way, if all currencies deflate and a wheelbarrow full of money buys a loaf of bread, then your gold will have more buying power than any currency. also in 1929 gold was $20 an ounce and in 1931 it was worth $22 an ounce a 10% increase. what percent did stocks dive to between 1929 and 1931??

John June 8, 2016

Suppose Yellen 'rate rise June' might screw gold a bit but finding it difficult to see another bullbuster. Non farm easily an outlier figure, one swallow makes a summer not. Do hope yu are right but some made money shorting to 1200 or so.

edmund June 8, 2016

loyalty is tough at this juncture though I'm still with you Thank you for your added incentives i need them

UDO June 8, 2016

smitty , that was missed already by now . Not many writer's ( analysts ? ) say - the bottom is NOT in - only a handful from most websites I read - they are all bulls .

Dolly June 8, 2016

Most people and investors are nervous to outright scared and covering all basis, including the metals. Obama did what he wanted to, bring this country to it's knees and most feel he isn't finished. Now there is another version of him, Hillary ! I'm not an expert but receive advice from another expert too, he says this world is running out of gold. If I had the money I'd be purchasing it. The local dealers in our area is now gouging at 30 percent over cost. That is how busy he is. So with all this mistrust for this administration how can it possibly go back down???

peter June 8, 2016

have'nt we all bought gold at $1207 that is what Larry said-nice $60 profit for us traders

Phillip V June 8, 2016

Janet Yellen won't raise rate until after the election and I know SO...Check out the value of gold Vs Federal Funds Rate. It is a 25 year cycle for gold and it started in 2000 and now the metal is in the last leg of the race. I won't miss the boat this time around!!.. It's all timing folks!!!

Hobbzee June 9, 2016

Hi- I've been keeping a close eye on Larrys calls on gold and noticed 2 things he's said that are true - first, when gold dips to near 1220 (or thereabouts) it's time to add to your gold position; I did this recently on an etf and took a reasonable profit on the 'test' position. The next is that the new bull market will be marked by a close over 1320 (or thereabouts) at the end of a trading week, by which time during the next couple of months of range bound trading we should have created a base level stock at the dips ready for the early move on gold. When it does head up guess only then we can feel 'safe' about adding more still to catch the full momentum of the move to 5000? Thanks Larry for the continued heads up and reassurances!

Lee June 9, 2016

The inaccuracy of the jobs-reports have thrown all models into chaos..Just an excuse not to raise-interest rates for Yellen & Co..allowed her to trash the Greenback (thus propelling gold up) & look after her Wall Street cronies..White Collar Criminals

Ron June 9, 2016

Thanks Larry ,Its hard to hold onto your hat with so many blowhards out there. still need your reports with updates to stay patient.

Hulio Valdez Jr. June 9, 2016

Larry, U da Mon, bro. Keep er ups. Tanks, Hulio

Michael b June 10, 2016

We are approaching 1300$ gold again Larry what's the play? Miners hitting 52 week highs. Inverse mining ETF , dust , getting hammered! There is only 2 more weeks in the month here and not looking like a collapse is coming , what's the play!

Pete June 10, 2016

If you don't know what the "Bilderberg" group is you should. They are meeting now in Dresden Germany. Search "Bilderberg Dresden 2016" in any engine other than Google. Make sure you understand the history of this group.

Rick June 10, 2016

Larry. You are saying that the dollar is going to firm and gold will slide. Mike Larson says the dollar is going to fall and gold will rise. Since both of you are with Weiss who is right?

paul June 11, 2016

Mike

Scot June 10, 2016

My money is on Larry. Gold rises when the majority looses faith in govt, and based on the sheeple that still believe Hillary and the Republican establishment, we still have a little more time. The coming collapse into 2017, and govt's desperate response to save their lifestyle, should about do it. If BREXIT somehow overcomes the vote rigging, the dollar could be off to the raises soon. If the fraudulent establishment counts the votes, and Britain commits suicide, then the dollar could temporarily bounce, until investors realize that nothing has changed for the doomed euro.

James June 11, 2016

If America wants another Boom it should try and host the 2022 World Cup in Soccer instead of playing it in a desert.

Scot June 11, 2016

I meant the dollar could temporarily DECLINE, if Britain stays in the euro.

steve June 11, 2016

larry. im still with u ,regardlesshow things go?

RC June 11, 2016

Does any one know how super cycle trader is doing ??? Thanks for input....

Socrates June 11, 2016

Technically Larry is correct Gold should have go down to 1.160/1.180 but instead stopped around 1.204 to raise very quickly to 1.270 maybe too quickly therefore is bound to another correction before retesting 1.307 . . technically! Accurate Forecasting it's always difficult and "controversial" because "new history" can happens any time in everything not just in Gold. I lean toward Larry prediction because is Technically based not in Greed and Fear emotions, only time will reveal the charting veracity.

Jack M June 11, 2016

Silver really is the devil's metal... I have been buying silver because it is so much lower than gold (as low as 83 to 1 ratio at one point). I worry that when gold's big run up comes, silver may be left in the dust. "He who has the gold makes the rules" I see this or similar floating around the net all the time. If gold will be what the next currency will be based on, and it's a big if but very possible, will silver owners be left begging for table scraps? Should I bite the bullet sell some silver at a loss and get gold now, or wait for a 60 to 1 ratio.... Thanks for your input.

Pirania June 11, 2016

Here it coms....the blow in the Face?! According to the "Eliotte wave theory" we are in the C-Wave of one 5 years long A-B-C correction. The first leg down to Point A, was on June 28 of 2013 at $1180something. The conter movement was until Mai 02. 2016 to Point B at $1304something. The final point of the A-B-C correction may be slightly at $866 on the first of Juli 2016. You don't believe it....At the first glance as well as I, but 1. It is the most emotional Weekend. 2. The President makes a speech to the People. 3. Is a credo of the Elliott wave theory: "think what you see" and "belive wath you see". 4. There would be a decline of 86%, the movement of $680 from the 10.24.2008 to the $1922 by the 11.06.2011. unusual but not impossible because a number of Fibunacci. 5. It would be point 4 from the first impulsiv wave of the 10.24.2008 low. very familiar. 6. It would not violate point 1 of the great cycle at $850 in the 1980 year. 7. Suppose the first wave down from the point C was 23.4% from $1303something to $1200something. the counter movement would then 76.7% to $1279something and the whole movement to $866something. It's crazy, but it fits beautifully and is very familiar. 8. Rick Ackerman has the same traget for years and he is like Larry spot-on. 9. The heavyweights in the gold space, tell something about deliveries for June on the COMEX, and that the number of contracts are very much higher than the available quantities in the warehouse. You can be sure that they will fulfill the contracts and kill the creditworthiness of the "big bulls". That's the way it goes. 10. There must be a huge panic arising before the weekend 4th of July, why? how you want to tell the family to lose a lot of gold money and on Monday markets, banks, and Feds are closed, what a coincidence. 11. It will be an invertes high in Larry's AI-model, as it was a invertes low in September of 2011. 12. Many hidden and confusing negotiations proceed behind the different scenes. G7, G20, IMF, UN, up, ECB, FED, and many many more. I will be really very long gold silver, perhaps oil. riding the wave of DOW, SP500, food after the start of hyper-inflation and very short dollars. on the 1 July 2016. Disclaimer: Hey it's just a thought, but a good one.

Myldred Kelly June 11, 2016

TTHX for your help. Consider your information very valuable. MKelly9

Tim June 13, 2016

Larry, gold has spiked nearly $80. Does your timing chart still reflect a late June bottom?

Henry June 14, 2016

Gold looking like it will blow through 1300 when the fear of Brexit hits home.

pino June 15, 2016

Hi Larry, where do I go to see your replies? Thanks.

Tim June 15, 2016

Brexit vote. If UK votes to leave the EU the chart above will be deemed worthless as gold breaks out, not drops into june 21

Bob L June 16, 2016

Gold has now gone over the resistance at 1310. Can't believe it will go way down as per your predictions. Still feel that way? I've bought back in with some miner stocks and long term gold options. How do you see gold in the near future?

Michael b June 26, 2016

Pino, Larry doesn't respond to questions on the blog.

Bob Grossman June 30, 2016

Gold $1319 vs. $1,160-$1,180 on 6/30/2016 - Larry, given the missed call on the Brexit, when do you believe Gold & Silver will drop significantly again to the levels ($1,160-$1,180) you forecasted in early June????

Pete July 6, 2016

Larry, Can you tell us what your current forecasting relies on more, the cycles analysis or the computer models? if both, explain how, thanks.