How was that for a forecast?!

Editor’s Note: Due to Hurricane Matthew, you may not hear from us for a brief time. We will resume our normal schedule as soon as the storm passes.

Please don’t take this as boasting, but for months now I’ve been using my cycle analysis and AI software to warn everyone I could that gold and silver and miners were headed lower, not higher.

And I gave a date. I stated they were headed lower into today, October 5. I made that forecast as many as seven or eight months ago.

Since then, we’ve seen gold plunge from as high as $1,377 to yesterday’s low of roughly $1,266 — a $111 drop, or just over 8.0%. The loss in silver has been similar.

I got my share of hate mail for that forecast, especially from those following the trading analysts out there who keep calling for the death of the dollar and who use every piece of news they can find to make an excuse for higher metals prices.

Unfortunately, they don’t understand the precious metals market. They can’t possibly understand it because most of them have never traded it. Most of them are unaware of the history of gold and most of them are simply fear-mongerers.

Not me. I tell it like it is, with my Artificial Intelligence Model and the waves, or cycles, I follow. My sole mission is two-fold …

  1. Keep you out of trouble, like I just did.
  2. Make you money, scientific profits and make it easy, with my very accurate forecasting models and more.

Right now, due to the severity of the selling, I cannot claim the low is in and the next leg up is about to start.

So we have to wait a few days to watch the action, which I will do for you.

Meanwhile, stay alert, the markets are really heating up.



Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 113

Morris Jesion October 5, 2016

Great call. Congratulations Larry. What about your call to sell Fortuna Silver? Thanks. Morris

What should I do about my silver ingots ? October 8, 2016

What should I do with the silver ingots I have.?

Gerhard van Rensburg October 5, 2016

Larry I have been following your predictions. It is uncanny how you could have been so accurate. Even you often say the exact timing is not possible so maybe you were a little bit lucky too? Best regards Gerhard. I am a forever fan of you!

hawk5000 October 5, 2016

i remember you saying with a little luck we might see 13 dollar silver but the price of silver and gold falling recently was due to the fact the u.s. dollar strengthened while the pound sterling hit a new 31 yr low due to the brexit also the possibility of a interest rate raise has made the dollar stronger all the while pushing precious metals lower

Tom Havelka October 5, 2016

Great call !

John Dunson October 5, 2016

Spot on. Best money I ever spent with your real wealth report. Thanks.

Cindy October 5, 2016

Larry, I just want to thank you for your dedication to those of us out here in cyber land. I personally don't know all the financial lingo and other such things associated with the stock or gold market. What I do know is the very basic things like "I predict this will lose value" kind of speak. So, Thank you. I'm soon to be an investor of gold/silver and your column has really saved me a lot of money.

George Leuning October 5, 2016

Thank you; For your report on precious metals.

Peter Michl October 5, 2016

You have been right, absolutely. And about the fearmongerers too. Regards Peter

Hedy October 5, 2016

Yes Larry you said there would be a pull back, but...... you need to also be truthful about missing the hugh run up in GDX and GDXJ in the first place of well over 100%. This pull back is still an expected correction unless it pulls back much further. Had your followers had the ride up, you could have helped them protect those gains with hedges or free rides on the gains. Just sayin'

deerflyguy October 5, 2016

Larry: I'm confused? Most financial investment counselors suggest precious metals as a long term insurance sector of one's portfolio. They suggest 10% of one's position as a reasonable percentage. Given that one is long on such, and does not intend to sell until necessary, then it really doesn't matter much what gold does on a daily basis, does it? The second part of my question is: If 10% is good, then wouldn't 20%, 50%, 70%, or more be even better? If not, why not?

richard hug October 5, 2016

Amazing! You hit this one right! I will be interested where we go from here!

Billl October 5, 2016

Hate mail is like being angry at a weatherman because one does not like his forecast.

James Blanton October 5, 2016

Good Job, Larry!

Rick Frazier Jr. October 5, 2016

Mr. Edelson, do you believe that it's A good ideal for someone as myself to turn their small amount of money in the stock market, 50,000, IRA to a gold IRA?

Ronald Deckard October 5, 2016

Larry, Can you provide a link to the piece seven or eight months ago where you predicted the date for this decline?

Gil October 5, 2016

I would like to see that link also!

RCrow October 9, 2016

There is no doubt that he called this and counter to everyone else. I've got the timing printed off along with the charts and I am very certain he was calling June, July, August doldrums as the potential lows. So nice call but shouldn't be gloating over timing as the fact checking doesn't validate the claim

Vincent October 5, 2016

Larry I want to tell You I am VERY impressed with your work . You have gained my full respect. It took time but You earned a loyal & great full follower. Ty

John T October 5, 2016

I thought you already told us the low was in?????

wallace October 5, 2016


stan longworth October 5, 2016

Great call Larry!

ian October 5, 2016

Well done Larry,I did listen to you

H D October 5, 2016

I have to give it to you that if this week we see the low that you were spot on. Most of my orders filled yesterday.

Michael (UK) October 5, 2016

Nice one Larry - you are still the main man to be trusted.

johnnny October 5, 2016

hi Larry, we seen your you tube profile and we like you very much, 65% of the reason we follow you is because your a nice guy, the other 35% is just the money..don't know if thats right but its what my wife and I think is right. God bless Johnny and Michelle

Bob Schubring October 5, 2016

Gold is fundamentally a commodity used to produce artworks, jewelery, and bling-bling. The beginning of October puts us 7 weeks away from Black Friday. Bling-bling sold in the stores to Christmas shoppers, starts out as raw gold in jewelery factories, spending as much as 2 weeks in transit. It makes complete sense that demand for this commodity cycles. Thanks for explaining this, Larry.

Steve October 5, 2016

I know we are at an inflection point but hoping for a model update soon. Made good money on an inverse ETF - THANKS!

Ray Simpson October 5, 2016

When gold bottoms should we buy NUGT and JNUG. Thank for you insight.

Harry Brett October 5, 2016

Watching and waiting for your next amazingly accurate forecasting, meanwhile battening down the hatches,as you must certainly be, as Hurricane Mathew passes through. Hoping for your safety, Harry Brett

Bob G October 5, 2016

Larry, you were right about gold. I had doubts about your forecast but respected your experience, so I took your advice: sold all my gold and silver, and waited. I saved a lot of money. Today I bought back some of what I had sold, in case it goes back up. Thanks for sharing your thoughts. Congrats on your prescience.

Kurt October 5, 2016

Hi Larry I have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for gold to drop to 1250 before I pull the truck up and buy. I did have my doubts but it seems you are correct again. I am planning on buying platinum just wondering what you think a good price point is or would I be better buying more silver and gold? Kurt Wyer

ralph reid October 5, 2016

I do appreciate receiving your ---Money and Markets ---Report.

PHIL BRYAN October 5, 2016

Spot on, I am so glad I didn't heed JR's advice and sell my shares to buy gold

Thom October 5, 2016

Larry, Stayed out of it back then. Will watch, Thanks, Thom

Brian Gottejman October 5, 2016

The fundamentals for silver are still in place for a spectacular move to the upside at some point going forward over the next few years. The market makers will let us all know when they are ready and we see the weak hands leave the market. You know these fundamentals; I will spare regurgitating them here. Also, as you are well aware one VERY LARGE brokerage house is sitting on literally tons of silver bullion.....They always make money Larry. I do enjoy your newsletter and appreciate your astute insights. All The

RockHopper October 5, 2016

Maybe we all are as well aware as you claim. Please clarify how the market makers will let us know when they are ready (and whatever ready means here). I am not well aware of any VERY LARAGE brokerage house that sits on tons of silver bullion. Who would that be and how do you know this? From one perspective, if there really is a VERY LARGE holding in silver already, this could be a bearish sign in that what would happen when they want to unload it?

Dom Gaudioso October 5, 2016

Great job Larry

A.J Close October 5, 2016

Thank you Larry for your last update, it is nice to have timely information. Presently waiting for more decline so I can buy juniors. In the mean time making some money on slv puts, made some money on DB puts. but it looks like DB is presently being held up by US banks. A. J. Close

Bruce Olson October 5, 2016

Why are we buying miners (KGC,AUY, GG,HMY) which hit your buy price last month and some are off 20+%.

Nick October 5, 2016

Larry you probable know Harry Dent. His research calls for a continues slide of gold al the way to an eventual level of the seven hundreds. :( What is your take? Regards

Anthont F Lukes October 5, 2016

You were right as always, I have made good on GLD puts and will exit ZSL and JDST as per your recommendation, possibly when gold comes near the 1st stage drop near $1250. I suppose we can reenter the hedges on the rebound at around gold at $1300. Thanks again, Anthony.

Linda Auerbach October 5, 2016

Hats off to you Larry. Awaiting for you to call the bottom.

Ryan October 5, 2016

That was Incredible! Reading your column has changed the way I look at everything.

Caine October 5, 2016

Larry- I'm a subscriber (RWR and Supercycle Trader) and a fan. Yes, this most recent forecast for a pullback in gold did materialize as you said it would- well done! But in all honesty, you started predicting a pullback in gold more than six months ago, and in fact, not only did a pullback not come, gold (and the miners) surged. "The cycles pushed out" would be how you described it. I understand and accept your conviction that gold needed to pull back. But to say that your cycle work accurately predicted the timing after being wrong for so long seems to be claiming too much. My two cents is that your cycle work does seem to predict the macro picture but seems to be not very useful in timing trades. For what it's worth... Caine

VPC October 5, 2016

Nonsense. He's been calling fall for a correction FOR MONTHS. Congratulations, Larry!

David Shearer October 5, 2016

Larry, Well done with your forecast regarding Gold & Silver you are the only one of about 5 I read that hit the home run.

Ernie October 5, 2016

Hi Larry I lived I Germany after the WW2 I saw what govt can do to currencies. I started investing In silver & gold in 1973 so I know that U were right on the money. keep up the good work Regards Ernie

Mark Rosenbloom October 5, 2016

Tell me more about subscribing to your gold newsletter.

Dan October 5, 2016

Larry, You nailed it. Too bad you can't say the the same on the Dow. Earlier in the year you mentioned 13,500 or so.

Steve Kennedy October 5, 2016

Larry, I just want to say Thanks. Your models worked great for me. I have profited over $30,000. in 2 months from "Dust & ZSL". That is the most I have ever made on a Trade or Investment. Steve K

James October 5, 2016

Hello Larry, You have shared plenty of good usable information about precious metals, buying, storing, etc. How about a few tips on taking a profit from part of it once the price increases hit. Where is the best place to go for a likely buyer; the place I purchased from? How much should I pay as overhead to sell some. Does the profit get reported to Uncle Sugar? Every bit of information helps. Thanks!

Ernie October 5, 2016

Right on Larry............time to finally back up the truck and start the loading. Ernie

Trey Barsalou October 5, 2016

Larry, You nailed it -- tell all folks in South Florida to fasten their seat belts or leave -- we grew up on the Gulf Coast and my daughter was living in South Florida when Andrew came through -- these storms can get mean -- Trey Barsalou

Gaylen October 5, 2016

Hi Larry. Member of 2 of your services. After several 5 digit loss past 3 yrs following your service was hard to take, but I did and have cut those loss in half. Will hang around a few more years. NOTE: I am very interested in the "Edelson Wave Model". Generally understand statistics and wonder when you plan to share/publish some technical stuff? Gaylen

john October 5, 2016

Here are the option of some other. I am not saying something against you. This is not a hate mail. I am not trying to offend anybody.

John Unertl October 5, 2016

Larry, You 'da man ! John

Lis October 5, 2016

Thank you, Larry. :-)

George Burkhart October 5, 2016

Looks like your buy prices for your miner buys turned out to be to high and I have some unpleasant losses. Should we just wait and hope sell stops don't trigger or will you recommend adding some shares at these lower prices to add some gains going forward?

Karin October 5, 2016

Hi Larry! I saw that the hurricane might cause a delay in the office, but... I would like to purchase your service, but neither e-card, nor Master card secure code seems to work. Thinking about just mailing you the money. Forecast was remarkably accurate. I hope you are wrong about just everything else:-) though. You should do the occasional go through very well. Take care!

stu vance October 5, 2016

The older you get the smarter you get?? Congratulations! Great call. Stuart

Denise October 5, 2016

Good luck with the hurricane!

Ralph October 5, 2016

Larry, That was absolutely amazing. I used to be your biggest critic now I am your biggest advocate. I am glad to see you use M.A. models with your work, He's brilliant. You know that Greek philosopher of his is never wrong. Keep up the great work. Ralph

Marina October 5, 2016

Awesome job! Larry.????

James Danile October 5, 2016

Spot on with your call on metals Larry. I've been following your lead on miners and metals and sold when HL hit $7. I've got the truck ready for the upturn signal. Thanks. JD

reader October 5, 2016

Dear Larry, I know that your system might be working, however claiming that 8% loss is a 'plunge' is a bit exaggerated, especially that volatility of Gold is quite high. I'm not a troll but please be reasonable. Wish to you all to stay safe during this monstrous Hurricane.

A.Cecchi October 5, 2016

Excellent forecast. Very accurate. Thank you very much.

rex willard October 5, 2016

sir; I am a professional snow skier. I raced in college as we say on the course to the winner girl or boy. Your the man . your the man sir . respectfully rex willard

Kenneth Bauman October 5, 2016

Hi Larry By the middle of October will metals and miners be a lot higher than we are now or will we trade side ways for a while? Thanks Ken

Phil M. October 5, 2016

Larry! You can boast all you want! Own it! I've been following your work for years. You're right almost every time. The only time you were wrong, you told us and apologized. You are truly honest. Keep it up!

Gianfranco October 5, 2016

Very accurate forecast. Congratulations from a skeptisch european

Larry Veldre October 5, 2016

I'm sorry to say that after following your suggestions for a while, I was starting to become a doubter. Fortunately, I hung in there with some short positions on gold based on your predictions. Those positions where showing losses for months up until the last week or so. After yesterdays big drop in gold (jump in my position), I couldn't wait any longer and cashed in a decent profit. Whew, I was getting worried. Now I will patiently wait for your suggestion for our next big move.

UDO October 5, 2016

I agree with Larry V. and his above comments . Yes you were correct with Oct. 5th but sorry to say many forecasts before you did not make it . But if you keep it up and get 70 % correct your readership will get bigger . Now lets see if we can bring the HUI back to 285 before another downward trend appears . The Aug. high just might be the years high , right ?

ji kim October 5, 2016

thank you

Bill Ohr October 5, 2016


ERL October 5, 2016

Hang in there Larry a lot of us have made money and saved a lot with you.

Kerry October 5, 2016

Your analysis has been very helpful, thank you! The cycle info is excellent too for people like me who slept through econ classes!

Dale King October 5, 2016

I would like a reposting of the exact article in which the October 5 date was given as a gold low. An actual model would have date ranges with error bars. Not dates. I don't believe models that spit out exact dates.

Chris October 5, 2016

Dont get too arrogant! I see you cautioned us not to buy the whole way up and we generally missed the January and june rallies, only some was lost this week. So for me we have missed more upside in 2016 and not ready to celebrate. Still appreciate your insight

anthony g October 5, 2016

the short euro trade has not done well. the uvxy trade has not done well. gold stocks did go up for profits while you were short gold

Hobbzee October 5, 2016

Thanks Larry, I've been quietly watching the gold price rise and rise and now your predictions have come good and I've made an initial buy on physical today, more to follow if we see a further drop. Just waiting for the upside!

F Bailey October 5, 2016

I'm proud to be a subscriber. I have been for a very long time. One question though. Why did you get your Real Wealth subscribers into the miners before the anticipated bottom for gold? I know you have always indicated that the miners usually take off first.

Linda Auerbach October 5, 2016

Great call on gold! Followed your advise not to buy. Thanks! UUP doesn't move much how does one make money unless buy call options but doesn't have volume.

Jay October 5, 2016

Larry, You wrote, "Make you money, scientific profits and make it easy, with my very accurate forecasting models and more." What in the world does, "Make you money, scientific profits" mean? What are "scientific profits" and how do they differ from regular profits? Jay

Andrew C October 5, 2016

What a call ... great modeling ... that's why we listen to you Larry. It would also be good to know how precise your dates are +/- as in a prior post.

hugh October 5, 2016

100% Larry

Eric October 5, 2016

Kudos, Larry, I've been trading gold for 12 years - you had this one right and I didn't.

Raul October 5, 2016

Larry it sure would have been helpful if you had recommended getting into miners in mid January. We could have sold the miners a couple of months ago with our invested money now being 2X to 4X more. I sure would like to have had more money to invest when the time comes to get back in.

Doug S. October 5, 2016

Larry, BRAVO!!! Once again you nailed it! Ignore the ignorant amateurs that criticize your forecasts. I've been trading for the last (20) years and I've done so while being simply amazed at your accuracy! I'm a long-time subscriber and I must admit your timing isn't always the best due to unforeseen changes that occur, but eventually your forecasts DO prove the most accurate I've ever witnessed. I'll be a member for life! Many thanks!!!

britt thompson October 5, 2016

great job larry !

Tom Shaffer October 5, 2016

Ya Know Larry, I knew you were going to be accurate with your AI models this time because all your war predictions were spot on. I'm amazed, and held off buying, but too bad my accountant didn't listen to me, he argued with me, and got crushed in the process. Thank you Sir!!

Scott Hartzler October 5, 2016

Larry. Your forecast models are brilliant. Thanks. However, 3141 days has absolutely no mathematical relationship or relevance to pi = 3.141592654... 3141 is APPROXIMATELY = to 1000 x pi, which is absolutely meaningless mathematically with regard to pi. Pure coincidence. Pure sine waves have a period of 2pi, which by your theory would predict a full cycle of 6282 days. Sine waves can be manipulated to have periods of pi by doubling the abscissa value (y=sin2x) but by this time you can see there is no material relationship.

Dirt Farmer October 6, 2016

I wouldn't gloat, Larry, unless you are equally willing to talk about your bad calls. As they say, even a broken clock is right twice a day.

John N. October 6, 2016

Great call on gold Larry!!!

Mario October 6, 2016

WOW ....!!!! LARRY , your prediction is been INCREDIBLE SPOT ON !!!!! Not even a Clairvoyance would have dune better then you !!!!! YOU ARE A GOOD MAN AND A GREAT FORCASTER !!!!!! I am one of your firmer believer and follower I went short on Gold because of your recommendation and I made good money !!!! Larry , I THANK YOU VERY MUCH !!!! And now we waiting for the next move UP !!!! Best Regards . Mario

Eli October 6, 2016

I think your were just lucky. A broken clock is always right twice a day!

screwed again October 6, 2016

you called the bottom of silver for today (10-05-16), last month. At the moment it is $17.48 bid and $17.58 ask, will this be the bottom or are we headed lower??????

Ron October 6, 2016

Larry, there is no doubt that "you da man" on this prediction. And I am a big fan of yours. But it will take some miracles to make up for earlier Supercycle losses. I have lost money repeatedly on your EUO predictions and a couple of times on predictions of Oil Prices - and have gotten killed on the UVXY play. Plus, I must admit, I am very disappointed that we did not play any of the upside of this year's rally in gold and mining stocks.

huanjo October 6, 2016

Well done Larry. Based on your prediction for gold in October I shorted some GLD on 30 Sep and made a tidy profit yesterday. I only wish I had held the position longer.

dave October 6, 2016

Your advice about BTG and the other juniot miners has been terrible.

Phil October 6, 2016

Timing seems to be everything in the Gold and silver markets so my sincere thanks and congrats but hopefully we can make some money soon!

Bob October 6, 2016

Best call I've seen you make. Have been a subscriber for a long time.

Jonathan October 6, 2016

Great call, Larry, and I definitely profited from this one. Your advice for other junior miners have been spot-on. However you know you also missed a previous call too. Luckily it hit my stop and I exited in a disciplined manner but let this recent one run and more than made up for it. Anyone reading this... it seems like Larry nails it about 60% or so of the time, which is about as good as anyone can possibly get. At least, if anyone knows anyone who nails it more than 60% of the time, please share their details! (Then you have Harry Dent who made one good call about 25 years ago and has been a complete "contrarian indicator" ever since).

RJ October 6, 2016

I can't believe these comments. They are so gushing, they seem to be staged. Does anyone remember the big market turn Larry predicted for a year ago -- Oct, 2015. Disappointed former subscriber.

James McMurtrie October 7, 2016

2002 was my first ever report I brought from you Larry, I followed you for 12 years when I was a Senior Equities advisor.. Many of my clients now follow you - Why? = Because they know a good reliable newsletter when they see one... When they hear Larry and James say the same thing they really listen.. Both my October seasonal data and your cycle chart pin pointed to a low on the 7th of October... Our first of three staggered buy orders are now in the market.. With Larry's 90% success rate, we are very greatful to have him as one of our success team over the last 14 years... Another job well done mate...

Phillip October 7, 2016

Unbelievable Prediction Larry!! Simply Unbelievable.!! The Time Has Come......

jerry October 7, 2016

great work larry .

jerry October 7, 2016

larry --you took ´ít over the fence.home- run. thanks

Manny October 7, 2016

Awesome, Larry! Let us know when to back up the truck. I subscribe to RWR and your premium service- can't wait for the next move up to make some winnings. Thank you for a good job!

Arnaud October 8, 2016

Hats off to you Mr Edelson, You made me money with your perfect timing for selling gold miners etf's and buying DUST since my subsription early this year. However I still have many reverse etf's on both US and European indexes most of them in the red. What is your timing for those to slip ? Can one of your readers explain me the little red and green annotations on your charts (FR, WO, TH...)

Selena October 9, 2016

Great job! I have been following your updates and predictions with much interest and am a keen fan of you. Thank you for great advice and please keep them coming. Most grateful.

Russ October 9, 2016

I follow more than one analyst and following advice, did ride the first Leg up, then took 500% Profits off the table as suggested by those Same analysts who also were in sync with Larry by late summer. Now, Larry has already hit some buy orders and other analysts are suggesting the Same. The point is, following more than one analyst adds variety and Valuable options that are missed by only one analyst.

Mark W. October 11, 2016

Larry, that was impressive. When you knock one out of the park, word travels real fast -- that's why I'm here now. I look forward to navigating with your assistance.