Caution: Gold, Silver and Miners …

Everyone seems to think that gold, silver, platinum, palladium and related miners are all on a moonshot now and will triple, quadruple and more — all without ever looking back.

The hate mail I’m receiving for not telling my subscribers to jump on board and chase them all to the moon is beyond belief.

But all that does is convince me why 90% of investors almost always lose money in the markets. They act like herds, chasing the latest trend. They buy the highs and bail out at the lows, in herds. Even my own subscribers show that tendency, as I can tell from their incoming emails.

Fact: No bull market goes straight up, and no bear market goes straight down.

Fact: The majority of investors act out of some kind of peer pressure, chasing highs, selling lows, always getting trapped and spilling blood.

Fact: Bull markets always retrace at least 50% to 70% of their prior rally. In the case of the first leg up, the retracement can be as much as 80% or more. Ditto, inversely, for bear markets.

Fact: Investors who chase markets almost always lose money.

I know a lot of my followers are chasing gold and silver and mining shares now. And I can tell you with near certainty, that if you are, you’re going to end up losing a lot of money.

Simply look at my latest Artificial-Intelligence Neural Net (AI) forecast of the gold data and cycles, based on thousands of data points and combined in billions of ways to come up with the most accurate forecast.

Yes, it was wrong on Brexit and the target date of June 27 turned out to be a high instead of a low. But cycle inversions are rare, and the market almost always gets back on track, so to speak, with the AI model.

I would not want to be heavily long precious metals or miners looking at this chart. It’s showing the potential for a steep slide into October.

The only way that might change is if gold were to close above $1,404.50 at the end of the month. And so far, gold can’t even get through the first major level of resistance at $1,368.

What to do if you’re heavily long gold, silver or miners? If it were me, I’d take my profits. If you’re reluctant to do so, for whatever reason, at least hedge your holdings with inverse ETFs such as DUST for mining shares … GLL for gold and ZSL for silver.

By the way, the dollar is about to explode to the upside, which will put further downside on the precious metals.

Stay safe and best wishes,

Larry

P.S. I want to send you a complimentary issue of my flagship newsletter Real Wealth Reportjust click here to download now!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 70

Gordon wood July 13, 2016

It was good to see your article today 7/13/2016. Last Monday,I have, as you recommended, take profit in both gold and silver by selling half of my holding. Please keep the updates coming

Paul July 13, 2016

Larry I am not chasing gold however I do hold a few shares of sprott gold and silver would picking up a few shares of the inverse ETFs be a good idea. Thanks Paul

Pieter July 13, 2016

Larry , you have said on a few occasions, your time horizon for gold and silver to provide maximum returns is the next 5 to 6 years. That said , what you are actually saying is that patience will be rewarded over time - my take ? I personally would like guidance on what to buy and hold over this term and what to dispose of which clearly does not represent investment potential. I will appreciate your views. Regards.

ian July 13, 2016

Well Larry,I cannot argue with you,it all seems so logical

george stewart July 13, 2016

Larry- Thank you for your cautious technical approach- you have saved me plenty of money on several occasions! It just seemed like everybody was 'piling on' to the gold trade and the minors- usually a bad sign. I'll gladly wait till the dust settles- thanks for the warning! -George Stewart

tom July 13, 2016

I think we are in to many uncharted waters for anyone to know where prices will go.

$1,000 gold™ July 13, 2016

i agree, tom. there's a time to make money in the markets, and there's a time not to lose money in the markets. this is a time not to lose money.

Paul July 13, 2016

Larry - It's just hard to stay on the sidelines when precious metals have climbed 20%. Lot of profit left on the table. Since your marketing materials say gold is headed to $5,000 per year, why shouldn't we be long? Holding out for a correction seems like market timing... when I'm looking to you for long term advice. Thank you! Paul

krystyna July 13, 2016

Dear Larry, We are with you 100%. If it is one thing we learned from you, it is patience. Thank you for your honesty and perseverence and also the profits I made trading the pound. Krystyna

AngelaB July 13, 2016

Hi Larry, I believe you have previously said Gold needed to close over 1384 on a monthly closing basis, why the change now to 1404?

John July 13, 2016

At my age I seen this happen before I am sure you are so spot on Larry thank you for the good work.

anthony g July 13, 2016

Time will tell concerning this outcome your artificial intelligence sees.

Carolyn July 13, 2016

No hate mail here! Thanks for excellent technical explanation. I have a very small position in GLD, so will add GLL for insurance. Piling cash and waiting for your instruction to back up the truck. Look forward to your guidance.

Tom S July 13, 2016

The coming pull back is actually one thing Larry is right about.

Chuck Burton July 13, 2016

A falling market for gold/silver might indicate a rising Dollar, and perhaps a rising S&P and Dow. This might fit in with a falling Euro, and collapse of the EU. It could also be good for Asian markets if they can reduce dependency on exports to Euro markets. Am I correct in part, at least?

mitch July 13, 2016

Wow! With Brexit, negative interest rates, falling 10-year treasuries, weak European banks, I would say that it a recipe for higher gold prices. What you are not factoring in is a bank failure or another country leaving the European Union or a black swan event. Anyone of these events will make gold rocket. I will take my chances and stay long. I am up over 100% so far. I got out once on your advice and it cost me $60 an ounce in gold to get back in. I love you Larry, but this time you are wrong! However, you are right on about everything else.

Barry Davis July 13, 2016

Hi Mitch: That is what bothers me on Gold going down.....the World seams to be set up for several Black Fridays with just one being enough to send Gold skyward. Perhaps Larry would address this as it is very important for many!!

wisecracker July 13, 2016

Dear Larry MANY gold and silver mining shares have ALREADY tripled or quadrupled from the lows a few months ago. Let's hope the pullback is as severe as you are hoping for, so you can get on board.

Geo July 13, 2016

Cycle inversions are rare??? So far I've counted at least 4 where you claim gold is headed for a bottom and instead heads higher.

Ray July 13, 2016

Larry, I own physical Gold in AU. Now here's the problem the split between the buy and sell price for a kilo bar is a massive $2000 plus, throw in a 1 or 2 cent rise in the AU $ and there's no point in chasing a small profit that will be Taxed about 30%. Seam's like just have to sit tight and hope for the best.

Will July 13, 2016

Larry, I have used Kitco charts to tell me what gold is doing. They have daily, 30 day, 60 day, 6 month, 1 year, 5 year and 10 year charts based on NY closing prices all on one page; making for good selection of relevant chart to apply. The 1 year chart covers the recent well rounded bottom and subsequent rise very well. Select the 1 year chart and print it out, then draw a pencile line along the rising top resistant points; and bingo, upwards resistance was indeed recently broken. This to me is a buy signal, not a sell signal. Nothing artificial Is needed to see this.

Pete July 13, 2016

Larry what about the DOW crashing to 13-15K? Looks like it's making all time highs. What gives.....

Bob G July 13, 2016

What are your feelings about FFMGF?

sawbuck July 13, 2016

What is a FFMGF? Wish people would spell these things out so all can understand what is being said!

Thomas July 13, 2016

Hi Larry . i have stopped buying gold & silver for the price . I do think in time it will come down . i dont have that much . very small investor or coin collector . i read all of u'r articals . tank u very much . Tom

Ryan July 13, 2016

Larry, appreciate your charts and advice. One thing you are missing the boat on... Your readers are waiting to get into physical metals, more specifically, silver. I am in the industry and inventory is drying up. You can go to your local guy and get 5-10k no problem. That's beside the point (chump change). You could potentially be leading people to slaughter if they cannot get physical! Could a pullback happen? Sure! Who cares when you are looking at metals as wealth insurance. Get in while you still have the time.

Jim July 13, 2016

I'm with you. Silver seems the more prudent play here. It has industrial as well as monetary value. Hasn't it outperformed gold on a percentage basis in the recent rally? In the event of an extreme economic crisis silver could function as an exchange medium while I doubt anyone will be buying groceries with their gold. I like "the poor man's gold". Jim

William Bartusek July 13, 2016

While you are correct under typical bull/bear market reversals that occur the vast majority of the time, you may not be correct about this market that reminds me of the drought driven grain markets in 1988. Although the reversal was compressed in time to 3 months rather than years, the price driving information flow was almost continuously bullish with relatively minor corrections. It was an unusual market because intense fundamental supply and demand factors converged at the same time. Based upon fundamental and technical analysis, I bought gold ETF's like NUGT and individual gold stocks when gold prices went to $1050 believing that was probably at or near a long term low. Although mathematical analysis is of significant value ( I have performed a great deal of statistical business economic analysis using multi-variant regression analysis in particular), it frequently does not adequately explain or prescribe human behavior and decision-making. I quickly determined this many years ago when I was working on a doctorate degree in economics. Just look at the decision-making and rationale of politicians and bureaucrats (like Janet Yellon) as proof of my contention.

Raoul Schur July 16, 2016

William, I like your argument. Interesting.

David C. July 13, 2016

Larry, One thing that you have definitely 'nailed' is that European, Japanese and Asian money would flood to the U.S. stock market as the only market liquid enough and "safe" enough, at least compared to their own; how else to explain the markets making new highs with poor earnings and forward guidance. Is it reasonable to assume that the sell-off in stocks at the start of the year and the BREXIT 'Flash Crash' were in fact the correction you expected? I am with the earlier posts, very lightly invested, my Gold and Silver exposure, outside of my "hold in hand" metals are 2 1/2% postions short PUTs on HMY at a strike price of $2.50 and KGC at a strike of $4.00, just to earn some income while I wait for your signal. I look forward to the RWR this weekend and appreciate you patient and conservative approach to investing. To me another 'warning' sign of at least a temporary top is the number of other Newsletters opening new Precious Metal letters.

Denis July 13, 2016

Larry, Very good article.As you say a lot of people act like'lemmings' I am watching/waiting,awaiting your ALERT e.m.

Question: July 13, 2016

I realize the difficult situation we now face and wonder how a change of "money" i.e. a shift from what we have now to an "electronic" form of exchange might change the value we place on gold? . . . Just a thought . . . BUT it could be an important one.

Paul B July 13, 2016

Larry, With so much chaos & turmoil in the world financially, politically & socially, it seems to be the perfect environment for precious metals to be launching higher in. With so many potential avalanche triggers for markets & currencies, what would be the trigger for a precious metals pull back of the magnitude you forecast ? Every time gold pulls back a little, massive buying happens, truncating any retreat...

Barry Davis July 13, 2016

Hi Paul: Precisely my feelings....I hope Larry addresses this as there are just far too many Projects that could go Ape! With the many Avalanches we could have, I wonder if Larry's decision data would take all this into consideration? EG....would decision data take into account of say a Deutsche Bank Derivative Collapse??

c.e.b. July 13, 2016

Took your advise,sold my FM stock at a very tidy profit. thank's

Scot July 13, 2016

A dollar explosion means big trouble abroad. Will stocks pull back with gold, or will it start acting as the new safe haven as the sovereign defaults ramp up?

Justin July 13, 2016

If we're really in a new precious metals bull market, we can't undercut last December's lows; in fact we can't retrace more than 50% of the gains since last December's lows. To do either, will abort the whole shebang and we'll have to start over. WRT to your recent missteps on timing, in bull markets there are always upside surprises and downside failures. Don't be surprised if a correction is late in coming and less than expected - again. If we're truly going to see gold at $5,000/oz. then this advance is going to be persistent with few second chance buying opportunities. The fundaments are simple: it is possible that the Great Recession was just a foreshock. The question we need to be asking ourselves is: what happens if the QE bubble bursts? The answer is simple, when stocks, bonds and all currencies are failing, the only remaining safe haven for the storage of wealth is gold.

Troy July 13, 2016

Bull markets do not always retrace 50-70% of their prior rally. And, even if this one in gold miners does, you have no way of timing exactly when that will happen. GDX is up from $12 to $30. Giving back half those gains from here would mean a price of $21. Possible. But, most who have stayed on the sidelines thought $21 was stretched, then $24, then $27. Might it move to $35 before correcting or $40 or $45. Larger bull markets do a good job of keeping people out of them. Corrections tend to be short and steep. If gold is going anywhere near your price targets, buying GDX at $15, $20, $25, or $30 will work well. If you get too cute, you may never get anywhere near a full position built.

JP July 13, 2016

Well said Troy. IMHO, Dollar cost averaging makes sense in this market for metals and miners. It's so sad that so many are waiting for a massive correction that might never come while the metals and miners move higher. I think that this bull market started 15 years ago, not 6 months ago. The massive downside correction has taken place. It was the last 4 years. And when another correction comes, if it is only -10% or -15%, there's a good chance that the call for the "bottom" will be missed, thereby keeping readers out of the market even longer and entering at higher prices.

Thomas B July 13, 2016

Larry, I have been buying Dust and have about 10,000 shares @ $18 per share. Dust should hit the $60-$70 mark based on all the info gathered over the last 4 months. Half a million bucks would be great!! Thanks!

Mike Joyce July 13, 2016

I am short 100 oz gold at $1230. I am short 2,000 oz. silver at $15.20 I am short 1,000 oz. silver at $16.10 I know I got caught, however do you recommend getting out or waiting for the market to drop. I'm just asking for an opinion giving a 30 day period. Thanks for all the good information through the years.... Mike Joyce

Vito Puopolo July 13, 2016

I've been sensing exactly what you just warned re. miners. I've been playing them but mores as a day trader.

Lynn Hayes July 13, 2016

Larry-- I missed this G&S rally... and I'm NOT mad at you!!! So not ALL your subscribers are having a fit about this! However, I recently opened a small put position on silver, as I don't think this rally can run much longer. We'll see!!! I have great respect and appreciation for you, Larry!!!! :-) --Lynn PS: people expect you to call markets as if you were "god", but nobody can!

Bob Schubring July 13, 2016

Thanks for the updated cycle chart! Am continuing to make good use of the course you taught on analysis last year. Just saw a teaser from Mike Levitt at Agora, about Deutsche Bank, drew a monthly and a weekly median-line set, and their stock looks like it could be trading between $4 and $6 per share by January 3rd, unless there's a sudden outbreak of news… Amazing how useful that skill is. Thanks for teaching, Larry!

dgs July 13, 2016

Hey Larry. Using a free charting service you recommend and plotting gold on 60 day and 120 day moving averages. Question: Using weekly data the price of gold is clearly above both moving averages and the 60 day is below the 120 day moving average, indicating a sell signal and a potential sell off in gold. However, using daily data the price of gold is still clearly above both averages, but the 60 day moved above the 120 day moving average in the first week of March. Doesn't this indicate a buy signal and to go long into the bull market with the daily close and 60 day moving average leading the charge? Thank you for any response...others as well.

dbtaylor July 13, 2016

Larry; looking back at your May 4 letter you said that if gold broke above $1306 then $1400-1450 was more likely into mid july, then a more precipitous decline would follow. Looks like that "cycle inversion " is the current path and above $1400 is very possible looking at momentum, volume, moving averages. Do you think this is still the path or will it stop short/

Beverly July 13, 2016

I think gold will not hit 1400 this month, at resistance of 1368 like Larry said. I would get out before July 20 and buy an inverse ETF. I want silver to stay high because of the manipulation, not enough in the world. Silver may be a better investment, but lets hope the next leg up rewards our long awaited patience. This time listen to Larry.

Lloyd Amundson July 13, 2016

I do not own any precious metal or miners and won't until October --Thanks for your good advice!--Lloyd

H. Craig Bradley July 13, 2016

WHO HAS THE PIN ? Why is it I get the impression the precious metals markets are manipulated? There are so many rumors these days, and not just about markets. I would not be surprised if the FED is in there buying the S&P 500 Index futures and adding to demand at the margin. The possibility of a deep correction in the gold miners is alarming but expected. GDX has gone up over 100% in the first 6 months of this year. That's way too fast and indicates institutions panicked back in January-February and into the Summer. So, who will pop the bubble this time? A high dollar? Another Chinese devaluation. A crashing Euro? It could come from any direction. If gold comes slamming down, the stock market may come down right along with it. This is the time when you want your overall allocations to fit your risk profile or you may experience a bout of acute discomfort by this Fall. Its either hang-in there or become a day-trader. My profile is not inclined to trading markets frequently. That is the realm of Hedge Fund Managers, of which many are currently experiencing outflows and struggling/closing. Trying to beat the odds for a slight edge is perhaps more trouble than its worth for most of us.

Pamela July 13, 2016

Larry I have found living in Australia that most of your recommendations do not apply as our currency kicks in when the US$ rises. Usually the AUS $ falls which of course means gold goes up. My holding gold for the past few years has proven to be a fantastic hedge against the rise and fall of the US dollar. It makes it hard for me to translate your recommendations at times though.

HHN July 13, 2016

Go for the long run and stop worrying about shorts flapping in the breeze...

samuel July 14, 2016

There was a gold bull market 2002-2008.I don't think there was a correction on any point on the graph more than 30 percent.

Sohail July 14, 2016

Well you have to respect Larry for sticking to his view. However here in the uk gold shares will need a very severe pullback to take as back To where we were in January. Given brexit it would be very helpful if Larry spoke specifically to uk subscribers.

John N. July 14, 2016

Larry, thank you for updating your forecasts today as some traders have made money in this short term rise in gold, but you have hardly got a call wrong on gold for years, so I am strictly, but reluctantly obeying your forecasts on gold and I am not long gold. You saved me from going heavily long gold years ago at the top of the market for gold! Thank you! On the other hand Marti A. has been bullish gold, but in his recent blog he is more cautious now, but he sees support for gold in the early 1300's so you are using a similar very sophisticated prediction system, but today you now have a different forecast to him for the all important bottom and start of a prolonged bull market. I know you say the bottom in gold is very difficult to predict, but you have not re-nominated a bottom in the 1100's today, for October. Is that because it is too far away in time to do this, so, if so that would be fair enough and sensible?! Anyway would you please clarify your approx. bottom price for gold, but only when it is feasible for you to do so nearer to that event, of course! In regard to the S and P 500 and the Dow ie the USA stock market, the Dow is now approx. 200 points off your important call to go bullish after it reaches 18500, even though the S and P 500 is now over its all time highs, so I would hope and expect that the Dow will reach 18500! I would have thought a prediction on the S and P 500 would be better?! I have been very long USA stocks since you called it a real bull market a few years ago. I am in Australia so the currency hedge is approx. 25%, but the Jan/Feb correction was nasty and predicted at too short notice by Marti A to sell and contrary to you after this sharp and severe downturn he predicted USA stocks would still later surpass their old highs made in May 2015, so this has just happened, but he also forecasts a recession, but still is bullish USA stocks! I wonder whether predicting USA stocks is more difficult than commodities such as gold and silver as the fundamentals have less variables in them?! Your prediction of a repeat of the period during the great depression has resounded with me and appears to have great merit and the capital flows out of Europe and this time Japan as well, to the USA seems very logical and clever lateral thinking, but you have recently said do not worry about Europe and Japan etc, but I really worry about Italy, German banks like Deutsche Bank and Japan actually collapsing soon from its debts soon not to mention Portugal and Spain etc. The USA stock markets already wrongly corrected about China in Jan/Feb and fretted wrongly about Greece last year and recently even wrongly about the UK with Brexit, so my point is won't even the USA have a "complete nervous breakdown" when countries in Europe and Japan actually wobble or collapse from debts etc and crash before the USA stock market gets anywhere near the 31000 on the Dow, which you predict because the crash will kill confidence altogether all over the world and even the USA?! My main question is firstly during the great depression was there or not a prolonged severe downturn in the USA share market BEFORE capital flowed like a flood to the safe haven of the USA or was it similar to our present time ie a severe recession in Europe, but not terrible conditions similar to Venezuela. One can already see capital leaving Europe and Japan for at least the USA bond and treasury markets and also this may explain the upturn in USA stocks, contrary to your forecast of another severe correction. Will being above 18500 on the Dow actually avoid another severe correction and will we, with a lot of volatility, of course, still find our very nervous way to 31000 on the Dow? To be honest I feel like selling after the soon to be expected blow out top in USA stocks, but I would hate to wimp out before huge profits could be made in USA stocks! On the other hand I wonder whether trying to find the exquisite timing of when to buy USA and Chinese stocks between alarming events external to the USA and China is too difficult, but then having nearly all one's investments in gold seems very intemperate and unwise as it lacks diversification which is a "golden rule" of investing, isn't it?! Anyway Larry that is where YOU are our essential guide to this excruciating dilemma in these coming perplexing, terrible times...... so Larry, Long Life and Good Forecasting!

Pat July 14, 2016

I have seen your predictions prove accurate during the last gold crisis. You told us to wait to buy gold, but I went ahead with my panic buying. Then months later, the prices all fell steadily, just as you had said. So this time I am trying to contain myself to wait for your signal!! Thank you for your help!!

Boe July 14, 2016

The BOE kept rates the same, so your dollar thesis just evaporated. Gold will rocket to 1500 from here! Maybe then larry will get his pullback to 1425.

Gordon July 14, 2016

Smoke and mirrors huff and stuff. Here are the J.P. Morgan numbers and it looks like the GAAP numbers are imbedded here. Earnings fell but per share price rose. With my grade 10 education I would say that its the earnings that count period not the fancy finaggling of numbers. I guess they borrowed money to buy back shares and bring this about. Analysts on the other hand were being just to kind in expected earnings at $1.43. Kind of missed the mark but then analysts are all part of this financial trickery where you set the bar on the bottom and the company steps over top and everybody goes hurrah. When will the government bring this trickery to an end. Guess it will never happen because they are all in favor of pumped up numbers and bringing new suckers into the game. Google at $700 a share give me a break. Shear fiction. The bank's net income fell to $6.20 billion in the second quarter ended June 30, from $6.29 billion a year earlier, but earnings per share rose to $1.55 from $1.54. Analysts on average had expected earnings of $1.43 per share, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. It was not immediately clear if the reported figures were comparable.

Fred July 14, 2016

I can agree with your statement that markets retrace their highs....but also times when they bounce back to set new highs, While metals like gold and silver have been in the limelight there are fundamental reasons for it doing so. Countries around the world have been accumulating and stock piling metals ( why do you think they are doing this ?), near zero or negative interest rates, the markets have great volatility and uncertainty......I believe that precious metals are a safe haven for many and the metals market is only at the beginning of a long term bull market. I also believe the U.S. economy lacks soundness and much money has left the market. I further think we are in for a worldwide economic crash and the " the big short " will in the future we given a new title of the " little short ". The writing is on the wall. I have done well with not only taking physical possession of metal ( for years and a low prices ) as well as ETF's and some Jr miner issues. As you point out I protect myself with DUST and ZSL.

Gold July 14, 2016

Agree with gold to pullback, but the miners... They can’t even have a little pullback. The best pullback we get is a range.

kenneth king July 14, 2016

Hey Larry, I enjoy your information / thoughts. Thanks for the heads up on the metals, I bought the inverse funds you recommended, & feeling some confidence. Keep your insights coming!

Doug Grady July 16, 2016

Hi Larry, you were talking inversion points. Could they be delta point 1 and point 2 ? I studied it back in early 1990's but I didn t quite mastered it.

Raoul Schur July 16, 2016

I am a contrarian and built up a portfolio deep in the PM bear market, and it has trebled in value, so am not following the herd. From what I understand the general public - the herd - gets into a bull market much later, and that at this stage it is mostly the *smart* money involved. They are NOT the *herd*. So my feeling is that while there certainly will be a pull-back I don't visualize it being as deep as Larry suggests. In which case it is questionable whether it is worthwhile getting in and getting out, bearing in mind that no-one can ever accurately determine a top or a bottom, so there may be less risk in simply riding the market - which does take nerves and patience - and waiting for the next up-leg.

mike July 16, 2016

how can I get rid of 8000 oz. (500 lbs} of silver I've collected sice 2002?

Yury July 16, 2016

Hi Lary, thaks for your view on the GOLD. But my opinion is different - I'm long on GOLD and think in will be continue rising especially taking into account all those tensions/terror attacks for the last week (France, Turkey). Investors were buy gold aggressively as you can see on the Friday closing 1Hour chart. I believe that there will be gap up in GOLD/USD when the market will open today. Don't see any technical weaknesses in this pair so far. The next target will be 1370 and then 1400. God bless and have a good trading to everyone!

Gold lustre July 17, 2016

If anyone knows about the velocity of money and the Vancouver Stock Exchange, the train left the station and it isn't going to stop to pick up anyone. Those not on board, move to one side or get steam rolled. Greed is back and pent up demand will drive gold above 2000 within 12 months...

Nina July 18, 2016

Last May I transferred Vanguard conservative funds over to a self direct IRA with gold and silver. Since then I have taken a loss. My question is should I take the loss and transfer it back to Vanguard? I know the stock prices have gone up but at the same time gold and silver is going down. So I need sound advice on what you would do if you were me. Any suggestions would help tremendously and appreciated. Thanks.

Chuck July 19, 2016

Larry, The world is in turmoil on all fronts. The main reason financially sound individuals avoided silver and gold had to do with factoring in the interest and dividends that they would have had to surrender by making the move to precious metals. In essence they were thinking the lost int and div of moving to gold was adding to the cost. With all of the buybacks, M&A, use of non GAPP accounting, earnings declines, top line misses, unrealistic projections, negative or almost negative int. rates, the markets will correct big sending Gold to $9,000 by the end of 2017 and higher from there. The miners will out gain the bullion move by 300% as almost 80% of increased revenue per oz is bottom line. The dollar had it's run from the mid 70s and will retreat at least 80% of that gain and that will be a further rocket boost to the metals. I am 60% into bullion and minors and 40% into cash so that the obvious non diversification is more than covered by the cash. The too big to fail Banks have more derivatives now and the buybacks in the banking center banks are much much lower than the other industries almost inevitable geopolitical event will happen and if it is a nuclear plant, poison in the water supply dirty bombs in a large mall or event the miners will be behind 5 years in production and that supply demand will alter the $9,000 gold to at least $25,000 sounds crazy but the world is crazier than that and we are in a monetary experiment that is more wacko then that.

Chuck July 19, 2016

Chuck again. I just read my post and realize I was too conservative with my figures. Folks, when do you remember when a Fed decision to move 1/4 of a point get so much attention that financial experts alter the percent of a 1/4 percent move in interest rates get so much reaction. Never happened before. Gold and Silver have been the only currency that has lasted thousands of years. There has never been a society that went from a certain % of gold backing to a fiat currency without collapsing. China becoming a reserve currency (Yuan or Rembini later in 2016) along with the blowout tonnage China already has and will announce is approximately 255% higher. Take it from there!!!!!

Velma July 19, 2016

I agree with this analysis. The fed has lost control. A deflationary commodity bust is coming soon. Gold has the possibility to trade down to $500 and silver down to five dollars. Too many sheep are calling this countertrend rally in precious metals a new bull market.

Justin August 1, 2016

Gold and Silver prices are suppressed artificially by bank sponsored shorting. If Goldman had backing by the Fed to infinity, how low does a finite market commodity go? A retrace possible? Gold to $500? Silver to $5? How would this effect China's plan to back their currency with Gold and displace the dollar. Or the price of mining shares? The power of infinite money, think of it. It is the power to infinite down push forever. But they would do it, the push downs, according to the charts, so their infinite power moves correlate with expected moves, bad news and corrections. To the degree and the depth the charts predicts. With gold shorted down on cue, I would expect to see the dollar to explode to the upside. This would help cripple China's gold based currency plan and BRICS hope of greater independence from the dollar. US Treasury/Fed backed Goldman's one two punch of a master world class heavy weight fighter. Market forces are now subverted through infinite money. I expect the US dollar to rise past 100 and continue rising to 120 as compared to other paper currencies. It's not gold stupid. Gold and silver are just fleas compared to infinite money. Infinite money will squash any thing. If you had a trillion dollars in cash today, could you squash your enemies? How about if you had infinite trillions? What would you do to your opponents? All you need to do is type more zeros on your keyboard. I'm with Larry. He has the roadmap that infinite money is using at the moment. And he knows it.