War Cycles Ramping Up Again …

Larry Edelson

I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving weekend with family and friends. I did!

But now, it’s back to work. It’s back to protecting and growing your wealth. And that’s more important than ever!

The chief reason — and I’ll keep harping on this until I’m blue in the face — is the ramping up of the war cycles. They’ve been ramping up since late 2013.

Now they are already wreaking havoc in Washington. They already caused Britain to Brexit. And now Italy could be next, followed by France. Then Spain. Greece, and more.

They overthrow Hillary here in the U.S. with its anti-establishment undertone, just as I predicted they would.

And the war cycles are increasing in intensity each and every year for the next four to five years. They are going to alter everything you thought you knew about the economy … about the markets … about politics and politicians … foreign affairs and more.

If you are not careful and open-minded, the war cycles are going to destroy your wealth.

If you are not careful and open-minded, they are going to destroy your wealth.

Let’s get something straight. I am not a pessimist. I am not an “end of the world” type analyst. I am simply a historian, steeped in how governments and markets are cyclical in nature, and how those who don’t learn from history are doomed to repeat the mistakes of the past.

The war cycles are real. They are documented and scientifically proven and based on over 14,000 wars spanning 5,000 years of civilization. I have studied them in great detail. They are ramping up big time and they will have a profound impact on everything.

What is behind the war cycles? What drives society and the world to enter turbulent times?

There are two forces: The private economy and the public sector, government.

In the best of times, when the interests of the private and public sectors are aligned, you get as close a partnership as you can get between the private and public sectors.

There’s good economic growth. There’s cooperation. There’s rising employment, little or no inflation, increased productivity. And most of all, accepting the status quo amongst our leaders.

But in the worst of times, when the underlying economy goes into a bust period, as it has been doing since the year 2000 — you get a divide between the public and the private sectors. A divide that only gets worse with time.

It may seem that their interests are still aligned. After all, both the government and the private sector want the economy to get back on track, employment to rise again and everything to be A-OK.

But in bad economic times, the self-interest of government rises to the top.

Seeing diminished revenues and unable to curtail spending, governments start to go broke. As they go broke, they turn against their citizens and seek more ways to soak money from them while at the same time cutting and even reneging on promises.

Think India. Now banning the use of large bills. Think Europe. Limits on ATM withdrawals and more.

Meanwhile, central banks try to paper over the mess, printing money with reckless abandon.

As the tensions mount between the public and private sectors, protests erupt. There are tax revolts. Riots in the streets. Secession movements. Civil strife.

Between nations, governments battle their own self-interests, with currency wars, protectionism, trade barriers, capital controls, and more.

Religious battles intensify. And if leaders don’t act appropriately — which they almost never do — all hell can break loose, leading to domestic and international conflict.

Front and center is none other than your wealth. The purchasing power of your money. The life of hard work you devoted to your family and its financial security. Your liberties. Your privacy.

For in the end, bankrupt governments want to grab your money to make themselves whole.

They engage in propaganda and desperate socialist moves to spread the wealth in some utopian vision of the world that is really nothing more than grabbing everyone’s wealth to feed a monster that is going belly up.

Think of the British and the American revolution. The original Tea Party and “no taxation without representation.” Think of the French Revolution. The fall of Rome and Byzantium.

In each and every one of those instances, and countless others, government crossed the line and invaded the private sector first, confiscating wealth to pay for its mistakes to desperately try and survive.

In times like those — the single best thing you can do is to think independently.

Question everything governments say and do. They will be acting entirely out of self-interest. They will deceive you, lie to you, all the while they are reaching into your back pocket to grab what they think is theirs.

Fortunately, today we have a slew of liquid markets where you can protect yourself and even grow your money. But again, it all depends on your ability to think for yourself.

Think it would be any different if Hillary won? No, it wouldn’t be. All of this is written in stone being played out before your very eyes.

Best wishes, stay safe and well,

Larry

P.S. Where Will YOU Be When the K Wave Crashes? When the K Wave crashes into the American economy …You’ll either be one of the lucky few who are rich and secure; or one of the millions who are hungry, desperate, and afraid. Now you might be tempted to say, “Dow 31,000 sounds pretty good to me, Larry, I’ll just hold onto my U.S. stocks and watch them double in value.” In other words, you might be tempted to sit tight and do nothing. But sitting tight is the worst thing you could do, for three reasons … to find out what those reasons are click here before it’s too late!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 34

Linda Trembly November 30, 2016

I live In Kansas and I am concerned about my retirement benefits. I can retire with full benefits (KPERS) in Feb. 2018...but will my retirement fund still be there?? How do I know what to believe in such confusing times?

bob November 30, 2016

Gold?????????

RC November 30, 2016

Larry, if the US Govt. makes paper money illegal to have in our possession, and requires all transactions to be through bank credit cards, then what do we do with all the paper money we have already taken out of these crooked banks to save at a safe location?

Dave S. November 30, 2016

You'll give it back to them for credit by the date they set or you will have lost it, in effect, when use of cash becomes illegal.

John T November 30, 2016

buy gold (real money) it can't be made more of, like paper????

tom November 30, 2016

none of that , just negative interest rates, legal stealing

David Hooker November 30, 2016

And again Larry you are silent on what the heck is going on with gold and silver!! Did you miss the mark yet again? Does your AI model not work anymore. Should we expect gold to rise in the near term or fall? We have heard the war cycles commentary so often I can recite it myself. Where are we on mining stocks? How much further can they drop? Any insight might help.

David Wray November 30, 2016

It's textbook--Venezuela! Hope for US. Bring international trade into balance partially by becoming energy independent to add 4 million private sector jobs. No chance under HRC possible under Trump. Hope for US.

George Burkhart November 30, 2016

As a subscriber for several years I am counting on you to keep my eyes open to the events you predict. Your updates between newsletters is very important in this world of fast moving events. Thanks, George

DAVID MACKENZIE November 30, 2016

Hi Larry ..since joining SUPER CYCLE ( 2 WEEKS AGO ) I GAVE NOT HAD ANY UPDATES ON THE MARKETS - WHERE TO GO / WHAT TO DO / WHAT TO SHORT / LONG ETC ..... AM IN THE DARK ESP ON GOLD/SILVER/OIL/ FINANCIALS AND ITALY ...PLS ADVISE US WHAT TO DO . I TOOK YOUR ADVISE AND AM RIGHT IN ON GOLD AS YOU SAID THE UPTURN HAD STARTED ....NOW WHAT IAM IN NEGATIVE ON ALL MY GOLD PLAYS PLS REPLY BACK

Mike Kennedy November 30, 2016

Larry, Really expected a comment today on current trends in gold & silver?

JOHN November 30, 2016

Where is the safest place to put your cash?

Pete November 30, 2016

Where is that darn 15K DOW Larry so we can load up? The DOW is pushing 19,100 as I ink this. Now what, isn't this extremely bullish for a monthly close? What gives P

Dave November 30, 2016

I normally find your articles in interesting. But I am calling you out when you said "They overthrow Hillary here in the U.S. with its anti-establishment undertone, just as I predicted they would." When did you predicate that, after the election?

jack November 30, 2016

Is this not just a repudiation of the failed welfare state, as stated in the famous Drain the swamp, vs. the previously used 47% statement? To rid us our expensive over entitled govee tax taker class and all their PC BS? The govee tax taker class is going to fight tooth & nail to hang on to their entitlements......But we tax payers can no longer afford them!

Dave S. November 30, 2016

So you're happy to give up YOUR entitlement---Social Security that you have paid into for who-knows-how-long---for the good of the country? Thank you for your selflessness.

James Anderson November 30, 2016

Well gold is not following your AI models at all. Gold has lost $130.00 since the election. If you knew that Trump was going to win and the dollar fly higher, what happened to gold. Before the election I never heard a word of this happening! This is reminding me of last October when the S&P was suppose to crash. The S&P in Oct of 2015 ended up having the best October EVER! Is gold going to $700?

Jame November 30, 2016

Nov 2016 has been the worest month for gold since 2003.

Tom November 30, 2016

Looking to see how Dec. goes. I'm still not sure the future is "written in stone". Everything, for me, depends on the coming month.

D Braatz November 30, 2016

Yes. But may hold around $900. I know it is hard to imagine cheap gold. But gold market is starting to panic. Wait till central banks start to panic and really start selling their. Gold is very long-term as a curiosity. Hate to say this. D. B.

Eagle495 November 30, 2016

Larry, You seem to have overlooked the FACT that since 1929 the stock market gains under Democratic Presidential Administrations are over 300 TIMES greater than under Republican Adminiistrations (despite about the same number of both). And BOTH Stock Market Crashes in that time period happened during Republican Admistrations with Republican Majority Congresses after periods of Republican Governmental Domination. Since the majority of political donations to Republicans come from the wealthiest (along with their dark pool donations), they are beholdien to pass legislation that favors thier donors..... Therefore, with those changes in legislation, Income Inequity goes up and the velocity of money goes down, followed by the economy going down, as the average American has less money to spend during periods of Republican Domination. I would follow that we did not have much of a deficit problem until the Republican Revolution in the early 1980's when Reagan gave HUGE tax cuts to his Billionaire supporters, but failed to cut Federal spending. Actually he increased Federal spending making the problem even worse. Then came the two Iraq invasions, under Republican Administrations with no tax increases to pay for them, including the Republican Medicare D entitlements with no tax increases to pay for them and then the Republican Stock Market Crash (60% loss) of 2007-2009 which caused tax reciepts to drop by trillions and voila, we have the current deficit disaster, due not to cycles, but rather to Republican Political Decisions..... For those unimformed that would trash Obama, let me point out that his Administration has returned the 60% loss under Cheney/bush and taken the stock market to new highs, and removed our troops from Iraq (where they never should have gone when you consider that the CIA plan was keeping the Shea/Sunni problem controlled for peanuts with no loss of lives to American troops and no damage to our treasury). While Obama has had to spend trillions to get the economy moving again, I would point out that FDR had to do the same thing after Hoover's 1929 Crash.... I for one, hope "it will be different" this time under Republican Trump, but will be investing with at least one eye tied to the Presidential Administration history of the past 100 years!

Stryder318 November 30, 2016

Wow! I would never have responded to a comment, but your shellacking... I don't consider myself a Rebooblican other than I'm a fiscal conservative. For me, slow and steady wins the game. My Mantra is: God/Family/community/country which requires: Work hard, take care of the women, children and elderly, pay your fair share, and put a little away so you aren't a late burden in life. Clearly these aren't your values. You are clearly the "Entitled Class" which includes the blame game for who you perceive has "harshed your buzz." Gold and Silver will recover. The Stock Market will set new records for 6-9 months following the Republican charge. And a correction will follow, the depths is anyones guess. The party can't continue forever; especially when it is built on nothing. I don't believe an administration has much effect on real economy until they've been in office for four years (I could be wrong) and their policies begin to have effect, but based on your arguments you've just Damned all Democratic Leaders. The Clinton Administration ended the boom economy of the 1990's. The Bush Administration never recovered from the recession it was handed. The Obama Administration took the recession and spent its way out more than doubling the debt of the previous 43 presidents, but he economy is still just as flat. I'm pretty sure you are right though; The Trump Administration will likely acerbate what could be the largest economic disaster handed any administration, but if the economists are right, you'll see the largest stock market gains as PEs sore for the next year before the September-October 17 plunge, so you called it.

Chuck Burton November 30, 2016

What Larry is talking about is the growing malfeasance in office of professional politicians. They pursue their own self interest, first of all, even in the best of times. When their machinations cause problems, they become increasingly nasty in their lust for power, and their desire to be loved by their subjects. That is how we get Stalins, Mussolinis and Hitlers. And when they run into trouble they turn to WAR as a last resort to expand their power. There may be something Freudian there.

Chuck Burton November 30, 2016

By the way, you'll notice that Mr. Trump's appointees to date are ALL either professional politicians or would be Elites. Don't expect any REAL changes in his administration.

Robert Rover November 30, 2016

Thank you for trying to awaken the masses. I am not in the market. I have purchased info from Weiss before. I follow the cycles like you mentioned. Sun cycles of eclipses in the past years have been a warning of things to come. Now that the sunspots are at a minimum and the sun is cycled to go into HIBERNATION for the next 100 years or more, I have moved to southern New Mexico to get out of the cold and ICE ! It was 22 degrees here last night. A little early for the season. Keep your eye on the weather. Sunspots control the weather systems. I do not think Mother Nature likes humans. Be prepared ! Sincerely, Bob Rover. PS monitor sunspots on the sun every day on solarham.com Right now there is a small one. There should be many big ones. Look up the Maunder Minimum of the 1600's. 72 years without sunspots. The Russians think we are headed for a Mini-Ice age worse than the one in the 1600's.!!

Chuck Burton November 30, 2016

Humans have become a sort of psoriasis on the surface of Earth, much as the dinosaurs did millions of years ago. Look at what Mother Nature did to them. Watch out for large new comets or such.

dennis morrisseau November 30, 2016

You call this a "War Cycle" ? When peoples and nations begin to reassert themselves and begin to separate themselves for WAR MONGERING AND INTENDING CENTRALIZED GOVERNING STRUCTURES?......that are pushing hard for war vs Russia at the moment for instance, and have gotten us involved in half a dozen dangerous but smaller wars over the past half dozen years??? IT'S A "WAR CYCLE"???FOR US TO BE TURNING AWAY FROM THAT?????? USArmy Officer [Vietnam era ] ANTI-WAR--FOR TRUMP-- Lieutenant Morrisseau's Rebellion

$1,000 gold November 30, 2016

your war cycles have been spot on, larry. you're still the best macro forecaster there is. your accuracy and knowledge has just been astounding. no one can deny you the credit you deserve for being flat out right about something you've been predicting for years. good job!

young lee November 30, 2016

Gold?

joan November 30, 2016

Oil????? Comment please

VPC November 30, 2016

Haven't read anything about oil here. Will it still be going to ~ $ 25,- as we enter 2017??? Thanks!

jim crawford November 30, 2016

Looking at Gold and Crude today what are your thoughts. Gold at 11.96 and Oil at 49.11

Rob Lee November 30, 2016

With negative interest rates and central banks using QE, the world is awash in cash. All that money is headed to the US stock market, inflating it out. How high ?...

joe November 30, 2016

Our last two depressions occurred when repub businessmen were in the White House-- Hoover, W. This third repub businessman fiasco will be different, right. Poor foolish sheep.