More on War …

A specter is haunting the world … and it’s NOT the specter of Communism.

It’s the specter of war … bloody regional and civil wars like we haven’t seen since the 1930s … wars that may soon wreak havoc with your finances … further erode your civil liberties … and maybe even endanger your personal safety.

From Istanbul and Rio de Janeiro to Syria and India, the world’s Internet-connected masses are rising up against incompetent, corrupt, increasingly authoritarian governments … and the results will NOT be pretty.

For most of this century, I’ve been reporting on the global financial markets while based in Bangkok, Thailand.

Living in Southeast Asia, just a few hundred miles from China’s southwestern border, has given me a unique perspective on world events and access to news about imminent wars that is rarely, if ever, reported in U.S. media outlets.

And, you’ve probably read in my Real Wealth Report, or in these very columns and other publications, about my studies on the war cycles and about how I predicted they would start turning up in late 2012. As they did, right on schedule.

Anger is spreading throughout the globe.

You may have also seen me in Forbes magazine, or on Bloomberg, CBS’ MarketWatch, CNBC or another major financial program or publication.

In my 38 years as a financial analyst and investment adviser, I have managed several large investment funds and founded my own brokerage firm with offices in New York, Hamburg, Dusseldorf, Vienna and Osaka, Japan.

I’ve been able to use the intelligence I gather overseas to help investors make astonishing profits — profits far beyond what most investors are able to make in the U.S.

For example, a few years back, in one of my recommendations in an emerging gold- and copper-mining company, I showed subscribers to my newsletter how to make up to 271.7% gains in exactly one year.

That’s enough to turn every $10,000 into just under $30,000 … in 12 months.

I’ve shown my readers how to make similar eye-popping gains by taking advantage of the huge opportunities I’ve discovered overseas — like the 196.8% gains from investing in the minerals boom of the late 2000s …

And the 142.9% returns they could have made in silver shares a few years ago.

The specialized information I get living in Asia is also how I’ve been able to help my subscribers double their money by investing in Asian aluminum and petroleum companies … and could have made 87.8% gains cashing in on Asian travel.

Naturally these gains do not take into consideration fees or commissions or the varying prices subscribers may have received. And not all of my trades have worked out this well; losses can and will happen. We all know past performance is not indicative to future results, but even if you caught part of these moves, you’d be looking at some nice gains.

Now, here’s the key point: As impressive as these profits are, I believe they are nothing compared with what’s coming over the next several months and years.

Chief reason: I believe we are now on the cusp of what will be the single most important economic events of our lifetime — events that will shape your financial future, and the financial future of all those you care for, for the next 50 years. I’m talking about a series of cascading regional wars and terrorism.

You all know I’m right. You all know I’ve been right on this forecast since late 2012, one of the only analysts in the world to study war cycles and predict that they would dominate our lives going forward.

Hundreds of millions of people — in the Middle East, Europe, Asia and South America — are already starting to revolt against the economic misery imposed by their authoritarian governments.

These regional conflicts and civil wars are going to do two things:

First, they are going to unleash the full fury of heavily armed, increasingly authoritarian governments — new Big Brother states all over the world — that now track nearly everything we write, say, buy or even think.

Second — and most surprising of all — this new cycle of warfare will also coincide with the last stock and commodity market booms of our lifetimes — booms that too many ordinary investors will miss out on due to bad advice and even blind panic.

Now mind you, I am not a politician, or a military expert. I am a student of history, a student of human behavior, a student of the markets, and I have an avid thirst for understanding how societies and cultures are cyclic in nature, inevitably causing history to forever repeat itself.

I won’t get into too many technical details today. Suffice it to say that over the past 30 or so years, I have devoted a substantial amount of my time to studying the cyclical nature of war, and what I have found is simply astounding.

You see, just like business cycles, or various different economic cycles, the waging of war within and between nations has definite, identifiable rhythms.

In my research on war, which has covered more than 5,000 years of war data, I’ve found that there are three distinct cycles to war.

There are the 8.8- and 17.7-year cycles. They in turn are sub-cycles of a larger cycle that’s 53.5 years in duration.

The 53.5-year cycle can be seen in this cycle chart here.

As you can clearly see, the 53.5-year War Cycle nailed major turning points …

 The War of 1812

 The Civil War

 The end of WWI in 1918

 The U.S. entry into WWII

It then …

 Rose during the Korean and Vietnamese Wars

 And bottomed in 1995, right around the middle of the “Peace Dividend,” which resulted from the initial fall of Communism in the former Soviet Union and the opening up of China’s communist economy.

The 53.5-year cycle has been turning up ever since. It is now clearly picking up momentum and strength, as evidenced by all the recent horrible events all over the globe.

We are right on the edge of seeing the war cycles turn violently higher, heading all the way up into the year 2020/21 before any lull is found.

What kind of war(s) could we be facing? It could be …

  • Definitely more terrorism;
  • A civil war and the breakup of Europe (already started);
  • Massive civil unrest in the U.S. (already starting);
  • A war in the Middle East (already underway in Syria and with ISIS, will get much worse);
  • A war between China and Japan over the Senkaku (or Diaoyu) Islands;
  • A war between China and Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines over the Spratly Islands;
  • Cyber wars;
  • Massive uncontrolled currency wars;
  • Capital controls (already in place in many countries in Europe).

Or any combination of many or even all of the above!

It’s coming. You can see it everywhere.

And it’s going to impact markets in ways you simply must prepare for. It will likely drive U.S. equities sharply higher. It will be the main trigger for gold and other commodities in their new bull legs higher.

It will eventually send interest rates soaring higher, and bond prices crashing.

It could cause all kinds of economic and financial repercussions that will either strip you of your wealth in the months and years ahead …

Or help you become richer than Midas.

I know which way I’m headed and which way I’m taking all my subscribers and members.

Do you know which side you’ll end up on? Stripped you of your wealth in the months and years ahead … or poised to become richer than Midas?

Best wishes and stay safe,


Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 39

Elmer Schmieder July 27, 2016

Real wealth report is great and I will always stay a subscrieber

Phyllis Cooke July 27, 2016

Larry, I share your concern for our country as we once knew it and what it has become. If my parents were still living their fear would be paramount. I will be 72 in a few days and I fear for my children and grandchildren who deserve better than what is coming.God bless you for your honesty and concern for your followers.

Bette ISRAEL August 2, 2016

So Larry...I am 86 and live on my dividends. What should I do? Sell all and live on cash? or sell all and buy gold coins? I am scared and so are my colleagues.

Byron Caws July 27, 2016

Hi Larry., apart from financial trading I have a love for History and must say I find your comments most interesting. I agree with you, we are on the cusp of a major political and financial meltdown. I only expected it to start somewhat earlier, especially the financial crash that has been predicted for the last few years...somewhat delayed in transit you could say. Cheers Byron

I agree July 27, 2016


Andy Williams July 27, 2016

Good stuff. We have somewhat similar backgrounds. I graduated from VMI in 1965 and spent 18 months with the USAF Security Service at a base in Brindisi, Italy. My last assignment was to a SAC base in southern Thailand where I was an officer assigned with REDHORSE, the rapid deployment engineering squadron that built and maintained the air bases in Thailand and Vietnam. I am a history buff too and what I see happening is disturbing. My day job is a financial advisor with UBS. Right now, I have most of my clients positioned very cautiously waiting for the next shoe to drop.

Glenda Carney July 27, 2016

Yes im concern for me and my family what do you do when you only get a small amount. of money. to live on each mouth how can you save money with this small amount. money I need. help!!

Vinman July 29, 2016

Glenda Try to pay attention to the little things as little amounts add up to big amounts over time . This means bagged lunches and avoiding vending machines . Example I buy water and soda by the case when it is on sale . This is 20 cents or less per can or bottle why the vending machines are a full dollar more . Also if you can make your own coffee . Buy your own cups and if you have a Keurig by the plastic pods where you bagged coffee instead of pods Figure this can save you $1 or more per cup also .

Pierre July 29, 2016

I'm not American and not rich enough but cutting on extras like daily coffee and buying by the case is the history of my life, Why? I did not like, enjoy, or endured at school because is was boring, out of context, etc. I could still have learned a lot more. Today, as many do, I live paycheck to paycheck when many become very rich. I'm content with what I have but there's probably too much effort I put in it for the results I have. And over that, some wise guys destroy currency with inflation. Our currencies are worthless compared to 40 years ago.

John Nachef July 27, 2016

Larry, What are your thoughts on the impact to residential real estate in the coming months and years. John N.

Charles Jones July 27, 2016

Larry, I don't comment much, but very much appreciate what you have studied, what you know, and how you are excellent in presenting it to us. I am watching and reacting to your every release.

Bob Bon Durant July 27, 2016

Larry-Is all the turmoil in the world today delaying your gold forecast of much lower prices ahead? I know you have a "sell" signal in place for gold, but it just doesn't want to break. As I write, I note gold is up $5.90 pre market. Thanks-

Trevor L. Nicholaidis July 27, 2016

Larry, Firstly, many thanks for your excellent Newsletters. I do appreciate all of your tips but I am interested to know how I would actually be able to invest in the companies that you mention in the Newsletters. I have been working in the Middle East for approximately 25 years and I am retiring to UK within a month's time and have only invested previously via Mutual Funds (unsuccessfully, I might add). Once I am back in UK, can I invest through the London Stock Exchange via a Broker or do I need to go through the New York Stock Exchange - via a broker ? Ot perhaps through the Mutual Fund? Excuse my ignorance but I guess we all have to start at some time - some later than others !! Again, Larry, thank you..

Gordon July 27, 2016

Well the party is still on all the stock indexes above are in the black break out the champagne. Apple sales down 27% stock goes up the madness continues.

Gordon July 27, 2016

Yes Larry you are one of the best there is. I live in Chiang Mai cannot stand Bangkok. My portfolio jumped a $1,000 right after the opening bell. I am up over $5,000 in the last month. I like the Sprott precious metals funds slow and steady and priced in US $'s I have about 10 junior miners all doing well. I am just wondering what S balls the Fed can throw at the gold market to slow it down. Their paper pledge and precious metals are incompatible.

Gordon July 27, 2016

Yes companies are lowing the old earnings limbo stick again. What a farce. Are investors buying into this or just getting on the GREED bandwagon. The end will not be pretty.

Chuck Burton July 27, 2016

Cycle rise, then fall, and rise again. We have to hope that the cycle of moral and civic responsibility has reached it's nadir, and is beginning to rise again. There are signs of this, but they are still weak. The coming election may tell us a lot. The nominations don't seem too promising, however.

Gordon July 27, 2016

Chuck The Republicans are bringing their big guns to bear on Hillary. The IRS is now going to investigate the Clinton Foundation. I think this will be their modus operendi for the rest of the campaign one can of worms after another. Perfect timing wouldn't you say? I watched the documentary Clinton Cash and it asked a lot more questions than what it answered.

Ralph July 30, 2016

watch the video. All about Clinton Foundation......

Ron Moore July 27, 2016

Who is Midas?

Todd S. July 27, 2016

Ron, if you see this: Midas is a character from mythology ... Greek mythology if memory serves, but I'm not certain it does. Midas was a greedy king who was granted one magical wish. His wish was that anything he touched would turn to gold. That is where the expression "the Midas touch" comes from. The story ended in tragedy, however, when King Midas touched his beloved daughter, and she herself turned into a gold statue. The price he paid for his lesson about greed was a dear one.

Maribel L. Chung July 27, 2016

July 27, 2016 (Wednesday) I live in the Philippines. China is a country who likes to claim territories that does not belong to them. They did that in Tibet in 1959 and Tibet is still under the Chinese communist. China likes to invade territories that are not even within their borders simply because someone named the area South China Sea. So, they think this area belongs to them. The result of The Hague ruling regarding this issue is disregarded by China. China is a communist country. For all their claim regarding the Chinese economy which eventually flopped I don't think China is a stable country since they are fond of aggression which eventually hurts their economy.

Gordon July 27, 2016

Yes Maribel but the world still beats a path to their door to do business. When China releases any kind of economic numbers take them with a shot of Tequila and mostly a grain of salt. When this stack of cards in China starts collapsing a lot of greedy people will be left holding the bag. It will not be pretty and their own citizens will be hurt the most. Greed knows no boundrys.

Ron Dean July 27, 2016

Larry, appreciate your newsletters and your wiliness to share your extensive research. I fear that you are 100% correct. I believe in cycles also. I would love your opinion on how all this is going to effect residential real estate and new automobile prices within the next year or two. Again, thanks for your unselfish sharing of what you have learned.

Gordon July 27, 2016

A bit of humor from Goldman Sachs the people that beat down gold for the last three years. "“We like to say that being long gold is the same as being short politicians and being short politicians is something that you would want right now,” said Jeffrey Currie, head of commodities research at the bank, in an interview with Bloomberg Wednesday. " You could not just make this stuff up.

Stu July 27, 2016

Larry, thanks for sharing your vision of how you see the world now and in the near future -- much appreciated. Perhaps the most important part of your commentary was at the very end when you briefly touched on "interest rates soaring higher, and bond prices crashing". So I have 2 questions for you: - when do you see the credit bubble bursting? - are you starting to come around to gold being considered a currency, rather than a commodity?

Lee July 28, 2016

Larry, you accurately called the bottom for the gold pric well-in-advance of the December 2015 decade-low..All those gold stocks on your list have tripled/quadrupled since their January 2016 lows. You should have backed yourself, scooped them up at that bottom..and buckle-up for this ongoing ride upwards..You know we won't ever see gold down near to $1,000 again..Just back yourself, buddy..No need to play the swings on the way up. Most of those shares that bottomed in January, will be 10 x higher within a few years. You were right about this decade's bottom late-last-year and you called it a year or 2 beforehand. Don't sweat the small in the sewers & sit on them until they're up in the pent-house

Richard July 28, 2016

Larry, what is your advice , you predicted a booming stock rise in the future , plus hugely increased interest rates during times of great upheavals , this seems contradictory , so straighten me out , I am probably misintrepting what you are saying .

Dave Nelson July 29, 2016

RE: US Bond market bubble. I use a wealth manager that has increased my (conservative) portfolio, and uses bonds for about half. Current avg. maturity about 4.5 years, and includes ratings down to BBB. Max maturity is 2025. I am "nervous" about this bond assembly from your comments. But the manager points out they use a skilled bond trader confined to a couple hundred bonds, with high credits in past work. When I ask about the maturities > 5 years, or the BBB ratings, I don't get detailed points of in depth analysis. Manager, btw, distrusts S&P and other usual ratings, uses the bond expert. Can you point me to a detailed summary that clearly shows the bubble condition of US bonds, that a financial expert, even a quant, would understand? It is possible my bonds are "ok" even with a burst, if I wait for maturity. I would like better understanding of your bubble assertions, with details. PS: have liked RWR for several years now, and have also spent years in Thailand, just returning from yet one more trip. Please continue your excellent reporting.

Arthur L. Weatherby July 30, 2016

Larry, I,m in complete agreement w/your assessment of the danger zones in our world today! I have been unable to participate in your investment programs, up to now, for a number of reasons, however, I plan to do so in the near future.

miguel July 30, 2016

Hello .Larry thanks very much for your tips.You styill think gold is going down along these two months august and september

Earle G Goodwin July 30, 2016

Dear Larry, How does one take physical gold or silver out of the US when moving to another country? Obviously, any attempt to take a quantity no matter how small would be detected through the x=ray on one's exit from the US... Your advice is more than appreciated.

Kenneth Harmon July 30, 2016

Larry, You talk about a lull happening in the war cycle circa 2020/2021. You also indicate that from mid 2016 on is the last big investing opportunity of our collective lifetimes. Okay, how long will the current window of investment opportunity last, and what do you think happens between 2021-2024/2025? In other articles you have indicated that the current War Cycle in general will still elevated until 2027.

Walter Rozett July 30, 2016

This is a comment from the article: For example, a few years back, in one of my recommendations in an emerging gold- and copper-mining company, I showed subscribers to my newsletter how to make up to 271.7% gains in exactly one year. That’s enough to turn every $10,000 into just under $30,000 … in 12 months. A 271.7% profit would turn $10,000 into $37,170, not "just under $30,000.`

AG47 July 30, 2016

what makes you think the US govt is not buying hundreds of tons of artificially priced gold on the DL with money printed out of thin air supplied by "The Fed". So when the new monopoly game starts we will again be in the cat bird seat. Give us a little credit. We can't be that stupid, Can we?

Paul July 30, 2016

Hello Gordon (and others) Greetings from Indonesia where I have lived now for almost one decade. I have looked on the Chiang Mai region for some time due to several retirement village type options that are based there. It seems that more and more Europeans and other 1st World retirees are settling there due to climate, ease of living generally, relatively good security. Are my impressions correct? Indonesia is fine at the moment but as a "bule" here with Indonesian wife I don't know if long term this country will stay as serene (mostly) as today. There are no retirement villages comparable to Thailand in quality. Infrastructure is generally poor, inefficient and expensive for what you get. On the other hand, and since I live outside of major urban conurbations, living costs are quite low except for previously mentioned utilities and utilities dependent products. Financially, due to internet, I can run my affairs anywhere. I am very happy with my performance in Indonesian equities. My only present position in Thai equities is a single "multi-bag" performer and is probably the largest of my financial positions held through thick and thin during and after the 1998 financial crisis. Lastly, just entered positions in LYG and OGZPY. Both are leading in their respective countries and industries. Both are at/close to 10 year lows and are paying increasing dividends. Am I crazy?

Warren Cole July 31, 2016

Wars cause booms, firstly because countries take on debt to wage the war and secondly because there is more spending to rebuild after the war is over. The world is now choked with debt. It will have to be purged by a financial collapse and debt repudiation before another debt fuelled boom can commence.

Andrew August 2, 2016

Hi Larry. Thanks for your tips. I have loaded up with Inverse Dust etf as you recomented. Always appreciad your advices.

Michael Cerino October 12, 2016

Hi Larry, New reader here. I have heard much about you; but this is my first read. You seem bright and honest and that tops my list of 'need to read'. Thank you, Mike