The Seeds of War Are Now Everywhere …

In many previous columns and many other publications, I’ve shown you how the war cycles turned violently higher in late 2012. I also addressed the issue of war, and its implications for the markets, at the Weiss Wealth Symposium in January 2014 — telling you in no uncertain terms — how vitally important it is that you understand these forces to protect and grow your money going forward.

It’s a topic that no one likes to talk about. Yet I’ve studied the history and cycles of war in detail, and I do not like what I see happening now in the least bit.

As I’ve also previously told you, I do not expect a war between China and the United States, or between China and Taiwan, or Russia and the United States.

But it’s clear to me that there are many seeds of war now being sown, in many different areas. And the amplitude and frequency of the events related to them are increasing, almost exponentially.

First, we have the rising military might of China, and its territorial expansion into the South China Sea and the Spratly Islands.

Beijing wants control over the vast oil reserves in those regions, which could turn out to be the biggest in the world. Beijing also wants to exercise control over the vast, hugely important shipping lanes in the South China Sea, another reason we should all be concerned.

Make no mistake about it, China is becoming a military giant. It now has the largest number of active-duty troops in the word, at 2.28 million soldiers.

It has 7,400 tanks. 44 attack helicopters. 71 submarines. 2,004 combat-ready aircraft. And a brand-spanking new, state-of-the-art aircraft carrier.

China is becoming a military giant.

Beijing is upping its military budget over 10% this year, increasing its military spending to $146 billion.

Second, we also have rising cyber espionage, all over the world. Much of it instigated by China and North Korea. The media call it "hacking."  I call it "spying." Either way, there’s a good chance we may one day, not too far into the future, see a full-scale cyber war break out.

Third, we have Iran and Israel, the Middle East. Always a problem, my models show this year could be the year that a full-blown war breaks out in the Middle East. The Arab Spring was merely a prelude, one that has sown the seeds of war and uprisings and rebellions all over the Middle East.

And then there’s ISIS, of course, and Boko Haram, not to mention all the other, smaller, but nonetheless, dangerous terrorist and separatist groups running rampant all over the world.

But the area that worries me the most is none other than Europe, where the demons of previous wars are still very much alive.

Europe is a cesspool of rotten politics, inept leaders and a monetary system that was flawed from the outset.

It’s gotten so bad now in Europe, the rise of neo-Nazi parties is astounding. 

In Greece, the neo-Nazi "Golden Dawn" party has risen in popularity from 0.3% of the Greek people polled in 2009 to as much as 7.0% late last year. A 23-fold increase in just three years.

Germany’s Angela Merkel is now being portrayed in many European publications in Nazi garb.

From the north of Europe to the Mediterranean in the south, fascist and neo-Nazi parties are growing at an alarming rate. As EU Home Affairs Commissioner Cecilia Malmström recently stated, "Not since World War II have extreme and populist forces had so much influence on the national parliaments as they have today."

Will Europe See a Civil War?

Yes, it will. Bavaria is gearing up to secede from Germany. Scotland from Great Britain. Great Britain from the European Union (next month). Northern Italy from Southern Italy.

Catalonia from Spain. And more.

So unless the Troika (the International Monetary Fund, the European Commission and the European Central Bank) back off of the weaker, heavily-indebted countries, which is not likely, yes, I believe Europe is headed toward massive civil unrest and war.

Then there’s Russia, whose latest maneuvers in the Baltics — even taunting U.S. military aircraft and a naval fighter — are sure fire signs Putin is still intent on taking back previous Soviet satellite states.

Also keep in mind that while there are no clear estimates on how much Russian money, legally or illegally, is spread out over Europe, it’s safe to assume there are boatloads. In 2012 alone, an estimated $56 billion left Russia, much of it going into Europe.

Then there’s the European energy sector, largely controlled by Russia. The European Union depends on Russia for more than 32% of its crude oil, and nearly 39% of its natural gas needs.

Germany depends upon Russia for as much as 36% of its energy needs.

Sadly, based on my work on the war cycles and what’s happening now in the next phase of the great financial crisis and Europe’s sovereign debt crisis — war and massive civil unrest in many parts of the world is a very real threat, and it’s already starting to impact the financial markets.

It’s a major geopolitical reason why the dollar bottomed last week and is now heading back up to new record highs above 103 on the Dollar Index.

It’s all a major part of gold’s initial rally, which is now — just as I had forecast — correcting, pulling back and testing support, and getting ready to blast off again, in June. Ditto for mining shares.

And, it’s a major reason behind my longer-term forecast for a much higher U.S. equity market. Frightened capital from all over the world will pour into the U.S. and emerging markets of Asia.

The rising tide of the war cycles and geopolitical tensions are also patently obvious in the presidential election cycle right here in the streets of the great U S of A. Establishment versus anti-establishment. Rich versus poor. Independent wealth versus PAC money. And more.

Bottom line: The war cycles and geopolitics are the driving forces behind almost all markets these days. Not central banks. Understand that single force — and all its implications — and you are well on your way to not only protecting your money, but also growing it in spades.

Best wishes, as always, and stay tuned …

Larry

P.S. Just three years ago, we all discovered that the U.S. government has been engaged in a top secret campaign of illegal surveillance that even George Orwell could not have imagined. The information I want to send you could soon be classified ‘Top Secret’ by the U.S. government — and perhaps even banned for dissemination under the pretext of national security. Please click here for more information!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 114

sandman May 11, 2016

If you have sons turning 18 in the coming years and do not want them becoming cannon fodder, research methods on how to avoid volunteering into military servitude even if drafted through conscription. Here is an excellent article on the matter: http://www.rense.com/general63/nat.htm

Philip May 11, 2016

Before you start pronouncing on what is going to happen in Europe, do get your facts correct. It's clear you don't know the difference between Great Britain and the United Kingdom. Scotland cannot secede from Great Britain because Great Britain is just a geographical entity. It is the name given to the island comprising England, Wales and Scotland. The full title of the UK is the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland; it consists of the island of Great Britain and six of the counties on the island of Ireland. But Scotland will now not leave the UK, the support for the Scottish National Party is on the wane, and only the SNP wants independence. After last week's elections to the Scottish Parliament it is still the largest party, but lost its overall majority. Also, there is ample evidence that supporters of all other parties are now voting for whichever candidate in their constituency has the best chance of beating the SNP, even if that candidate represents a party they do not support.

Dunkelmann May 12, 2016

Thanks Philip, it is sad that many people still think the UK is the same as England and don't appreciate the difference between GB and UK. I want out of the EU but I want the UK to stay united. Indeed, people voted for the party that had the best chance of opposing the SNP.

Curtis May 11, 2016

You are wrong about Russia. If they wanted to 'take back' the Baltics, they would already have done so. The taunting and provocations come from Uncle. Look where Stupid Uncle puts his military bases and where the military planes and vessels are when they are 'taunted' by Russia. Why do you buy the transparent propaganda put out by Uncle and parroted by the presstitute media?

Ben May 11, 2016

Couldn't agree more with Curtis about Russia. Just look at a map to see who's provoking whom. The Russian message is clear: "You're getting way too close!". Nothing to do with re-creating the old empire.

Jim May 11, 2016

I agree with Curtis 100%. At least there are a few of us who are not brain washed by Uncle Sam.

marc May 11, 2016

Could not agree more.

Hank May 11, 2016

I agree, although just look at how close Russia put its country to our bases. lol

Hank May 11, 2016

https://www.sott.net/article/276668-Geopolitics-of-Empire-Mackinders-Heartland-Theory-and-the-Containment-of-Russia

$1,000 gold™ May 11, 2016

it was edelson that said in his last article that russia is taunting american ships in the baltic sea. that's wrong. it's america taunting russia by sending warships into the baltic sea. (likewise in the china sea). why? america's navy overwhelmingly controls the world's oceans. our navy will go wherever it wants, whenever it wants. we're proving a point. no worries, mite! we can handle it.

$1,000 gold™ May 11, 2016

best we take care of our putin problem now while russia's economy is on par with greece.

$1,000 gold™ May 11, 2016

edelson's war cycles have been spot on. kudos go out to larry.

Dirk May 11, 2016

Curtis´ opinion is much nearer to the truth Uncle pushes other nations into war whenever it can profit from it Ukraine is a typical example

Jim May 11, 2016

Totally agree with you Curtis. There's a retired American general (forgot his name) who once said: The problem with Russia is its country is too close to all of our military bases.

$1,000 gold™ May 11, 2016

the migs that buzzed our ships in the baltic displayed no weapons, they were removed before takeoff. like all bullies, putin is a coward.

Doug May 11, 2016

What is your plan to control Putin?? His nuclear arsenal has been up-graded over the past 10 years, while the US and Western Allies lag way behind with our aging Nuclear Triad.. The economic collapse of world trade, the failed Obama/Clinton/Kerry leadership with our adversaries and continued declining economic growth is the fuel to start global aggressive adventurism... That is where we are going...

Brian May 12, 2016

I couldn't agree more. It still does make for more news or reports of war, it's just that the US doing it.

Jay.T May 12, 2016

Putin is being portrayed as many things in the western media,I doubt he is a coward,if anything he has showed remarkable restraint.

Jay.T May 12, 2016

Haha...very good.

Jay.T May 12, 2016

Your honor....the defendant broke his ribs on the officer's fists...please convict him.

$1,000 gold™ May 12, 2016

putin is not a coward, he's a bully. all bullies are cowards, not all cowards are bullies. there has never been an act of courage come from putin, and never will be.

$1,000 gold™ May 12, 2016

nukes are useless. it's a suicide pact. the planet become a piece of charcoal that glows in space for the next thousand years. no one gets out alive, not even a cockroach. putin won't push the button unless he want to take everyone with him. so his nukes are usless. so are ours.

MiAH May 12, 2016

Do you have any idea what is going on outside your bubble?

Ken May 12, 2016

No news here. Russian and US subs have been deliberately bumping into each other for at least the last several decades. Just never reported.

Doug May 13, 2016

If you think nukes are outdated history then you better brush up your knowledge of terrorism with the EMP threat over America's electrical grid system.. There is plenty of reason to worry about a single strike attack with no calling card for an effective military response...

Agustin May 14, 2016

It's the very dangerous game of "chicken"

Glenn May 15, 2016

Let's be fair; Obama and his policies are not backed by all Americans. He sure screwed up Syria and a few other countries. I expect the next president not to be so damn meddling.

russian bear May 19, 2016

boy - russian economy is bigger that the fake "american". In fact, your "GDP" is negative - consuming more that producing, living off the rest of the world. but it's coming to an end

russian bear May 19, 2016

are you ku-ku? so far as i know street mugs prefer to have some weapon, in case

Lee May 20, 2016

Forget your dream of sub < $1,000..it ain't gonna happen..You're living in a fantasy that won't become reality..Certainly not this decade & probably never again..Too much demand & getting more costly to find/produce..

Lee May 20, 2016

That comment was for reader $1,000 Gold by the way..not directed at Larry

Michel May 11, 2016

1. Major Wars in Europe take longer to break out. look at 1930s history Spanish Civil War, Hitler's Land Grabs, Fascist Italy's invasion of Ethiopia, Japan's invasion of China & threats to European colonial empires all occurred exactly 80 years ago, but it took 4 more years before WW2 started. 2. Wars start when there is a large %age of young men. Today Europe & Russia are full of "oldies". The demographics in Europe creating the deflation also limits the potential for serious armed conflict. So Capital Flight to USA Yes, Serious Armed conflict, nah

Gordon May 11, 2016

Yes there is a lot of us oldies kicking around but there are a lot of young UNEMPLOYED young men who cannot find a job and may never. MORE than ever.

Peter May 11, 2016

You don't need big land armies with young men these days: Wars will be fought by technology, in cyber space, by drones, etc.

Jehu May 12, 2016

Hasn't there been many young men pouring into Europe lately?

russian bear May 19, 2016

what cyberspace? in case of a rocket launched onto russian - automatic "dead hand" system - heritage of mighty soviets - will scorch out the great america into wasteland, thermonuclerlly, no alternatives. why US "government" (whatever it is) yearns it so much? amazing

steve dennis May 11, 2016

remember , the bible time is the end of the seven year cycle on or around September 23

Steve Rowan May 11, 2016

what's the 7 year cycle? Never heard of it..explain please

Bill May 11, 2016

I believe he is referring to the prophetic end time 7 year period of tribulation described in the Bible in books of Daniel, and Revelation. However, if one believes in such things an arbitrary September 23rd for it to end is highly unlikely as it isn't even clear it has begun. Probably a case could be made for the World to be within the beginnings or somewhere first 3 1/2 years of it. Some signs are moon turned to blood, wars and rumors of wars, WW3, pestilences, plague, famine, large populations dying, men lovers of self and haters of God, a great falling away, a revealing of the son of perdition, etc

Jehu May 12, 2016

The Bible does have some mentioned 7 year cycles for some things. I believe He is using the old Jewish calendar which begins with the month called Nisan We know it as March.(but as the length of the months were also different than our newer Georgian calendar it is closer to the first day of spring in our month March that the month Nisan begins.) The seven year cycles referred (or marked times to or not to) for feasts ,Planting, returning property,and more. It is not found in Daniel or Revelation to ever claim or name a Time (length) of seven years as the length of time the tribulation time period lasts.. after which the end will come at the Advent(return) Of Jesus Christ. In which no man will now that time hour or day.

Jehu May 12, 2016

No man will Know that time,hour or day. Sorry for the typo before.

Jay.T May 12, 2016

OMG...sick to death of the biblical maniacs saying the world is coming to an end..God really wants man/men to sort out their own problems....does God really want to destroy all his effort and glory...I don't think so !

MiAH May 12, 2016

You do realise many Bible scholars think Revelation is not a good source and many Bibles either don't include it or put a caution on its authenticity?

Ken May 12, 2016

Well he did a pretty good job of it in Noah's day... that is if you believe the Bible.

Rickie Smith May 11, 2016

Very informative . Thanks

Smith May 11, 2016

>>It’s all a major part of gold’s initial rally, which is now — just as I had forecast — correcting, pulling back and testing support, and getting ready to blast off again, in June We are in the middle of May almost and no pull-back in sight. Yes, a few days of smashing but I thought it was supposed to be a sharp drop. I hope Larry doesn't claim this is what the model suggested.

John May 11, 2016

It better not be! Need a serious pullback or the model is not good.

JimH May 12, 2016

Face it: the model isn't very good for the short term. Is it good for the intermediate term? Will there be a significant low in June followed by the blast off June 31 according to the model? I wish I knew. After taking a few profits in March (prematurely), I have been waiting for the pull-back to get back in. For the long term, 2017 - 2020, we are all bullish in agreement with Larry.

marc May 11, 2016

US provocations in Baltic sea, US provocations in South China sea, US sponsored terrorism in Middle East, US bombs dropped on schools, hospitals, civilians. And you worry about Russia and China? The next war will be started by the same pigs in blood spatted uniforms who started all the wars in the last 50 years.

Craig May 11, 2016

Larry, I believe no one can be correct about the short term move of a given market more than 1/3 of the time and that is very difficult... As you write this weeks column Gold and Gold stocks tested support and are heading back up. It appears they are both heading to new yearly Highs into the end of May..not a bottom before blast off.. You hedge yourself saying that if we go to a new high NOW it will take away from your longer term bullish view on GOLD.. THE USD went against the intermediate term down trend line and backed off and the only way it gets to 97 ...yet alone your prediction of 103 is if wars or "dramatic events" occur out this year, You missed one of the most dramatic short term rises in Gold stocks in history that began in December and have been calling for a pullback all the way up warning not to hold long gold stocks.( except for a couple of your picks) I am just glad I didn't follow your advice as convincing as you communicate., ]

Rich May 11, 2016

Craig, you are sooooo right ! My mining stock portfolio is up around 80% in two months. Anyone can be wrong; markets are difficult to predict. But those who are wrong and have the courage to call those who arr right "pundits" seem quite arrogant to me !

Aidan Fallon May 12, 2016

Do shed light on your next move. Are you looking to add to your portfolio upon a new breakout or will you wait for a pull back to add? Great catch on the December turn. I missed the majority of the move and am eager to catch the next.

James Bey May 11, 2016

Russia is a troublemaker : flight 007, the war in Ukraine, taunting the U.S. military. North Korea : The Korean War aint over. China spying on the U. S . Iran : nuclear power. Germany : WW1 & WW2 . Its obvious whats coming !!

Brian May 12, 2016

Trouble maker? Really, what has the US been doing all over the world? You have to look no further than the middle east and Ukraine for recent trouble making. Believe all of the propaganda that you want.

Jay.T May 12, 2016

Oh that Putin is such a trouble maker...how dare he stand up to the west...he really should know his place and kiss US arsicles....he is a demon...the devil..hell incarnate...lock away your womenfolk because that troublemaker Putin is ridin' into town..really ???? zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz..

Jay.T May 12, 2016

I think Trump will sort Putin right out...with mutual respect.

Phil May 11, 2016

Larry, We have heard what you have had to say about the W ar Cycles a number of times before.Please help us with our investments rather than filling your spot with events that we can do nothing about.Many of us survived the Cold War.

Jay.T May 12, 2016

Phil, it's obvious...precious metals...buy land in the defeated country....buy bonds in the victorious country....before they are victorious...and buy ammo suppliers of both...do your damned homework boy...and stop asking for other people to lead your investments...if you really need other people to tell you where to invest,your already dead in the water ! Stop reading newsletters looking for an easy heads up,and start behaving like an investor...read,read,research and make up your own mind....it's your money man..no one will look after your investments better than you...do your research both macro and micro...connect the dots....like I said..if your looking for somebody to hold your hand...your dough is already walking out the door :)

Michel Akras May 11, 2016

Hi, I read most of your studies, which are very instructive and interesting, but... I wonder what happened in your last studies and the one of today: What’s Up With Gold and Mining Shares? Larry Edelson | Wednesday, April 27, 2016 at 7:30 am Beware of Gold Rally … Larry Edelson | Wednesday, May 4, 2016 at 7:30 am "C. And soon, you will realize that my short-term forecast will bring gold back down to below $1,200, the $1,160 to $1,180 level …" "For the short-term downward bias in gold right now, keep your eyes on the $1,206 level, then $1,191.50." and now you say: "It’s all a major part of gold’s initial rally, which is now — just as I had forecast — correcting, pulling back and testing support, and getting ready to blast off again, in June. Ditto for mining shares." Do you call the fall to 1260 a correction compared to the correction you stated in you earlier newsletters? of 1191, 1160?? Both of your newsletters well supported by a graph showing that gold will lose it's momentum, and "possibly even lose all the gains since the begining of this year". How can we follow you? on which predictions(studies)? Eventually, I really hope that your prediction of the gold losing all its earlier gains since the beginning of this year, become true, as it will really give me a chance to re-fill my positions, and many other traders' too!!!

Solly R May 11, 2016

Geo politics and war mongering are not driving the Markets. The majority of the investment community is not focused on any of that. Most of the Major countries you named Russia, China, Great Britain/UK, US, Israel, all have a vested interest in peace they are major world players making major profits and war among or between them would be nothing but disruptive of that. There are some regional and specific self interest that they will/may pursue, but not to the initiation of a Major conflict among themselves. I agree that the small radical groups are the problem, they cannot/will not be controlled or bought off and they will cause major disruptions. International Capital will continue to flow to the US Market, as you stated and commodity prices will increase. But a major war, in my opinion is not in the cards.

Jay.T May 12, 2016

Solly..very close to the mark...not sure about the last bit..if war broke out yes..capital would inflow to US markets by default..simply because the US markets are big and liquid...without global conflict...the US markets are in deep trouble and hugely overvalued..the underpaid average joe does not have the coin to invest in the market...the US markets are a mirage...a fog in the distance by water deprived desert vagabonds....the US markets are making a 3 year moon top...it's a mirage...a shimmering illusion in the distance and future....the mirage has the thirsty and slaked hypnotized with printed money and sharebuybacks...neofinancial engineering and all sorts of tomfoolery..anyway you want to wrap it...the US needs remedial work and fast..if Clinton wins...the illusion is the same...it just shimmers farther into the distance so that you will never touch it,and the markets eventually just drop dead from exhaustion....if Trump wins...it is entirely possible that that illusive mirage could suddenly come into sharp focus and the markets have a meltdown due to the Donald Discount....

Eagle495 May 11, 2016

For heaven's sake....... Throw out GATT and NAFTA, brought by the Republicans, and the problem goes away..... It is only through manufacture of goods in China for consumption in America that China has become the Major Military Power that it has....... The Republicans brought much the same problem when they supplied money and equipment to the Nazi's prior to WW-ll..... :( Anybody on this site ever investigate the behavior of Republican Preston Bush prior to WW-ll?

Gordon May 11, 2016

Yes Eagle495. You make a good point. Too soon we forget about the "Bushes" and all the wonderful? things they did for the USA. GWB was the crowning achievement.

Jim May 11, 2016

Yes, Prescott Bush would have been indicted for treason if it wouldn't have been a major embarrassment to the country. Half the trucks in the Wehrmacht were Fords. Hitler kept a portrait of Henry Ford on his desk. Ford's book on the perils of international Jewry were required reading in Germany. Wall Street banking interests also provided major financing to The Third Reich. Rockefeller and Kennedy were big supporters. IBM's complicity in providing the equipment and information to conduct the Holocaust was has been well documented. Western intelligencia and Media all admired the big government regimes of Italy, Germany, and the Soviet Union. How quickly we forget. Jim

Jim May 11, 2016

To be fair Orescott was really just an errand boy for the immensely wealthy and powerful Harriman conglomerate. Jim

Mike May 11, 2016

Eagle It was Prescott Bush, George Bush's grandfather, who was in business with Germans backing Hitler. His company was seized in 1942 under the Trading with the Enemy Act. I am quite familiar with the Bush crime family.

LDL May 12, 2016

No, I believe GATT and NAFTA was introduced by Democrats but ignorantly supported by the Repulicans, I told every one in my class that there would be no more jobs left in the US, But they wouldn't listen. Much like our Congress.

Jehu May 12, 2016

And G.H.W.B. cant even recall were he was the day when he was told JFK had been shot. Head of the CIA and huge news that rocked the country for a long time and he couldn't recall. (he was a lot younger than now , when making that statement so its not a senior moment.)

Lee May 20, 2016

What a partisan bore you are..one track mind

Daniel May 11, 2016

About Europe and the ME: The three jokers in the pack are: 1. The massive Islamic minorities in Europe - large enough cause civil racial-oriented mayhem beyond expectations 2. Daesh/ISIS - don't believe for a minute that the current setbacks they are suffering, will stick. Daesh is much an idea as a real state; as soon as the forces arrayed against it start to tire (and they will), Daesh will bounce back with a vengeance. 3. Iran. Pardon my sarcasm, but is the profound wisdom of the POTUS, good for the rest of us? What all this says for financial planning is impossible to say. A "prophet" having 100% accurate foresight on 31st August, 1939 providing full details of what was about to transpire from the next day, 1st September, 1939, would have been considered insane. Then, even Churchill was considered a war-mongering nut. Personally, I am going to sit this one out in the calm eye of the storm - in Israel!

Lance May 11, 2016

Quite correct, this is a serious long term threat to peace throughout the West, and Iran doesn't hide its intentions. Throw in Saudi Arabia and ISIS, you have peoples who live for the goal of death. Islam... Any worse threat than this?

TOM GUGGER May 11, 2016

I think everybody is overlooking the Americas. Venezuela and Brazil, both countries of good size and populaton are ripe for civil war. This could touch off a refugee crisis to the US that would dwarf the Syrian crisis in Europe.

Socrates May 11, 2016

There is Much Discontent all over the World including here the USA caused not only by Financial Inequality but also by Cultural fragmentation transforming the homogenous character of Countries via Multiculturalism forced upon passive ethnic populations which are no longer passive. Proportions is the key of equilibrium in the Universe, overpopulation technology, climate changes added and accelerated disruptions beyond the Governments capacities to control however this "fragmentation" for the time been prevent a large majority to go bananas and start another Great Conflict for the next 10 years at least.

Bleucher May 11, 2016

Comment one references an article on our Congress potentially returning the draft. To go one step further is to recognize the role of our government in the wars seeded by our money around the world. Apparently 5000 non Syrians contractors have entered Syria via Turkey and Jordan to fight for Aleppo. Are we the paymasters? The rise of the Ukraine as pro West apparently cost us five billion. Your present article recognizes the potential for many wars, but until the public demonstrates its antipathy to future wars seeded by America, your predictions will likely be true.

Kenneth Harmon May 11, 2016

Larry, I have been reading your warnings as well as Martin Armstrong's warnings about War Cycle increases over the last ~10 years, and so far you have both been dead on in your forecasts. However, neither of you talk much about what happens after the War Cycles peak in the 2017-2020 time-frame. All you have both said is that the War Cycles stay elevated until 2027 (you) or extend into 2024 (Armstrong). Since we are now only a few years away from the 2020 peak can you elaborate a little more on what you see for the War Cycles beyond 2020 and through 2027? Does a 21st style Global War of some type (but still bloody enough) start circa 2020 and finish circa 2024-2027? Also, after the U.S. Equity Markets melt up for the next few years what happens after DOW 31,000? Will they crash then or go flat? It would be nice to have a forecast through 2024 at least and not just through 2020. Thank You Kenneth Harmon

UDO May 12, 2016

Kenneth , do not ask for a forecasts so far out - they are usually wrong anyways . I remember Armstrong saying in 2011 " a 2-3 yr. gold correction " . By now it's 5 yrs. and he still has no clue for the next few yrs. 2016 was " suppose " to be the start of a new gold bull and too bad most of us believed it but it's wrong .

chuck May 11, 2016

Eagle, Pretty sure NAFTA was signed by Bill Clinton.

Mike S May 11, 2016

Do more research. It was written and passed by HW Bush and his Republican majority Congress

real americans dont lie May 11, 2016

Dear Mike S........ i checked and i did a little research and guess what i found.... the north american free trade agreement N.A.F.T.A and G.A.T.T which is the general agreements on tariffs and trade were both signed into law in the year 1994 by BILL CLINTON not a repukelican BILL CLINTON was elected president of the united states in 1992 . Its obvious your statement is false and misleading and i believe its you that need to do a little more research before you make misguided and misleading statements.

Eagle495 May 11, 2016

real americans have no clue, Who did you get your information from , FOX, Hannity, Beck, Rush? For heavens sake, look at an unbiased site for a change... Wikipedia or Google? Or just continue to believe in the "Good Fairy GOP", right? Since 1929-2012, $10,000 invested in Only Democratic Administrations grew to about $350,000. During the same time period and with about the same number of years, the same investment in only Republican Administrations would have only grown to $11,000... Get the picture? What, those geniuses above didn't share the above fact with you?... Gezzz... :(

WillieSnowSkier May 12, 2016

Clinton signed it into law on December 8, 1993; the agreement went into effect on January 1, 1994.

real americans dont lie May 12, 2016

Actually this information is available on wikipedia and google N.A.F.T.A. and G.A.T.T. were both signed by president Bill Clinton in 1994 he was elected president of the united states in 1992 that makes the likelihood of another president signing it impossible, my statements are factual taken from wikipedia and google what we need is honesty and integrity in our statements not foolishness and childish games . We need to hold people accountable for their misdeeds in public office. Both G.A.T.T and N.A.F.T.A. have cost this country dearly with millions of lost jobs to foreign nations, its time we start repealing laws that have been detrimental in the past and start working for a responsible future for hard working american's.

RC May 14, 2016

The entire mess we are in today is because of the Clinton administration. NAFTA, GATT, Repeal of Glass Steagall act, Mortgage backed security crises, student loan crises. All a product of the Clinton administration. If Hillary is elected say goodbye to America.

Eagle495 May 18, 2016

All three are not true... All three where written and passed by a Republican Majority Congress...NAFTA was originally signed into law by HW Bush... Clinton's was a "Formal Signing", but it was already law... :(...

nitram May 11, 2016

penny gold/silver stocks have already gone up. just starting http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/RPMGF/quote

mark May 11, 2016

Larry, where is the weekly analysis on commodities that we are paying for? We need updates! Your article is interesting but seems it would be more appropriate for the monthly report.

James May 11, 2016

I reckon the UK should be the 4 smaller nations and England should be just on its own as an independent country. This EU/Brit Exit is gonna be exciting one way or the other.

oilguy0` May 11, 2016

69 yrs young and I really mean young, people always asking for ID when do anything as a "senior, course could be wife 20 younger, looks 30 might be reasoning. Could be just fooling myself but not about what's going on world; after doing biz startup selling to Mideast contractors late70's, involved with "coin shops" first gold mania, owning oil&gas leases same time period. Been there done that Okla, Florida, Mexico, Santa fe re-involvement oil&gas 2002. Facts are facts, reality is hold prescious metals protecting against paper crap, means nothing until true financial ruin happens, unless you're securing children; which appears U.S. gone crazy over kids. LIving at home into their 30's or later, don't understand couldn't wait too throw gravel off the drive get my own place in teens. Different world, different theories, lets help everyone, let them bring their cultural problems, way of life into our lives, so few realizing "inflation" one thing. Printing of money, now around the world, soooo around the world it continues inflation continues, prescious metals explode then what? Selling them for inflated paper currencies to pay tomorrows price? Around and around we go, for real where it stops nobody knows. Do know this income streams from oil&gas fluctuate but monthly checks for years on regular basis when involving self in small constant streams from stripper wells; which still making what they were making production wise 40 yrs later has been nice survival technique. Returned to Oklahoma, not to "drill baby drill" but simple re-start old stiripper wells that produce net income at $25 a bbl. No large management overhead expense, kiss technique theres always openings for small, sensible money involvement. Cut the sophistication, keep pump jack heads bobbing up and down, move some water, separate some oil. HI ho, HI ho along the you can go, buy little physical metal, here, there income streams down, up, down, up but always net profit managed daily properly. Oil, gold, silver. Guns, Guts, Grub, Gold and God!!! Old 5 G's always applicable. Keep it simple listen to common sense with problem being not only are few espousing it, so few even understand it anymore. 3B's Be Aware Be Prepared Be Safe

Eagle495 May 11, 2016

So you made a bunch on the Cheney/bush oil manipulation and now you are losing your butt as oil falls back to where it ought to be? Being you are 69, you probably served and know what combat is all about, aye? If you think Gold is going to save you, I'd ask you whether you are arming yourself with a M-16 or M-4 or an AK-47? Why do I ask? Because it would tell us a lot about whether you will survive when our country goes on doing just fine, especially when we rid ourselves of the GOP and their paid for Quislings to the wealthiest 3%.... Oh, and you might want to get a little earthquake insurance and arm yourself for the time when your neighbors come for you because their homes have collapsed thanks to the waste water you pumped so deep that now you and your like have caused on of the biggest fault zones in America, aye?... :(

Torben May 11, 2016

"Bavaria is gearing up to secede from Germany." Sorry but that is simply wrong information. As true as saying that California is gearing up to secede from the US.

David May 11, 2016

5 G's. Like that!

Cyd Oakley May 11, 2016

Perspective: So China has 7,400 tanks. 44 attack helicopters. 71 diesel submarines. 2,004 combat-ready aircraft. And a brand new aircraft carrier. The US has 10,000 tanks, 8,000 helicopters,100 nuclear submarines, 15,000 combat aircraft, and 13 Aircraft carriers. What is the US response if they cut off our supply of i-phones? And that large land army? Russia should worry, its far east population density next door to China is about 4 people per square mile. Pakistan has a 30 day water supply, nuclear weapons, 90 million people and a lot of over the edge religious crazies. This is where terrorists will likely get a nuke, the question is when and what will they do with it?

rrr May 11, 2016

just for reference. US has: Air Force ~ 291 Attack Aircrafts; ~ 159 Bombers; ~ 1,400 Fighters. Navy ~ 670 Fighters. Marine Corps ~ 110 Attack Aircrafts; ~ 270 Fighters. Total: ~ 2,900 Combat Aircraft, not acconting UAVs. not so much for HyperPower. What's more, in my view, the newest F-35 is a big fail ( only expenditures for R&D more than 400 Giga $$ ). US Army has ~ 840 Attack Helicopters. That's really much. US Marines ~ 170 Attack Helicopters. 8,300 Tanks (1,300 active service). 71 nuclear submarines. 10 aircraft carriers (deployable). Pakistan has population of ~200 mln.

Eagle495 May 11, 2016

Read the "Bear and the Dragon"....

Denis May 11, 2016

As usual I,ve read all of the previous comments.There is very little sanity in any of them. Enough said !!!! Denis

Zero May 11, 2016

I dont know much. The only way I can even make heads or tails out of the insanity going on in this crazy greed,hate,power and control hungry world is to understand the bible.I think we are in the start of the war in Rev 9:13-21 That starts out of the Euphrates river area and escalates into killing one third of mankind. How will these wars play out and the alliances formed out of them? In Dan 7 There is a lion with eagles wings ,(I think Britain and United States , the man and heart of a man is another way to describe this nation The Eagle, or UNCLE SAM I believe) Dan 7:4 also July fourth is an interesting coincidence since we were a British colony ) The Bear in Dan 7:5 is Russia I believe. The leopard in Dan 7:6 is Germany I believe (it has 4 heads i think = 1st, 2nd , and 3rd Reich and a 4th Reich) feathers of a foul is France I believe. Then there is a ten horned kingdom still not sure ,but probably a form of the EU after all the civil unrest and civil war Yall have been talking about earlier. These are the nations that will be on earth when the Ancient Of Days casts down these nations authority and HE Reigns on earth !! Dan 7:9. We find all these beasts again in Rev 13 all together to form THE BEAST ,( Note Rev 13 in verse 3 one of the heads has a mortal wound that is healed. I believe this is when the Berlin wall came down ) (Note also The Beast has the mouth of the Lion=international language is English) Now WE Do Not See The Eagle In The Beast, But Rather we see the Eagle in Rev 12 : 14 protecting the Woman (Israel) all the way to the Battle Of Armageddon when Christ Returns and Reigns on earth for a thousand years Amen !!!!!!! The beast does not ever have control over the entire world because it is at war with Israel at the Battle of Armageddon when Christ returns. I also believe the united states will be protecting Israel all the way till then as well.I think we have Judgement to face for our nations ways of turning from God ,but apparently we turn around. I also believe strongly in gold and silver as God despises unjust weights and measures and fiat currency is a HUGE Form of Unjust Weights and Measures. Just my 2 cents worth hope it helps someone make sense out of all this craziness we live in. Thank you all for your insights, God Bless You All !

Jehu May 12, 2016

Woman refers to the Church (All True Believers followers of (the Husband) Christ)

susan May 11, 2016

Thanks Larry for all you do for us.

Chuck Burton May 11, 2016

I agree with Cyd about the danger from Pakistan. That is doubtless why al Quaeda and the Taliban are so active in that country. They want nukes, and ISIS might be supporting them also, along with the Saudis, whose strict Wahabbi version of Islam is the basis of all their ideology. As for the major powers, none of them actually wants war, but all are willing to stir up trouble among their satellites, if their rulers believe they can profit thereby. One thing favorable about Obama: he has eased off on the trouble making - perhaps a little too much. Quid pro quo with China actually gives them the advantage.

jim May 11, 2016

wow! so many confused on what to do, stock market supposed to crash gold and silver to skyrocket, stock market supposed to rally to 31000, gold silver to hit lows, just leaves all of us in a stage of uncertainty..we are moving to a cashless society and all of our transaction are going to be monitored oh and you forgot about that no man can buy or sell anything with out the mark of the beast. our gold will be taken away and our silver we will throw in the streets. dam, larry seems like we are going to be screwed no matter what we do.since all or most all of us believe that war is on the horizon maybe you should scope out some companies that manufacture war goods.

Eagle495 May 11, 2016

Jim, You might want to pay attention to what happens in November.... If the Democrats win and retake Congress, things will get better... If ever changing Drumpf gets elected and the GOP keeps Congress, I'd be looking seriously about an exit strategy, lots of ammo and several good AKs and some Silver which you can use as coinage and lots of long term storage food and water, aye? Oh and you might as well cap those wells as there will be little market far below the cost of production... Luckily, you are living in a region that doesn't freeze come Winter...

Jim May 11, 2016

Different Jim! I always put my name at the end of my post. You are definitely on a roll today Eagle. My question for you and everybody else is about gold. If gold goes to $10,000 does it actually have anymore buying power or Is the price just a reflection of the currency? Just to mess with you, I prefer the AK-74. Unlike the AK-47 I can actually hit something with it. I also wonder if having weapons, food, silver, and water, etc. doesn't just make you a more attractive target. if you aren't Way Out in the country you won't have much of a chance. Just for the record, my expectations are quite low no matter who wins this fall. Buddy, if you are depending on Hillary Clinton to save our bacon you are going to be disappointed. Jim

Jim May 11, 2016

Also, conventional stripper oil producers have financial flexibility big companies can only dream of. We can hunker down and produce oil for next to nothing in overhead for extended periods. It's like any other business, it's debt that kills you not the market. I have survived $10 oil twice and will this time. It's also a time of opportunity for veteran producers. We can buy the wells that the amateurs drilled during the boom for pennies on the dollar. I know Lefties despise people that are self suffucient but I have learned to live with it.

Jehu May 12, 2016

That is NOT TRUE!

Eagle495 May 12, 2016

Jim, The 74, like the M-16 will not hit a target when fired through trees or jungle foliage..... Looks great on the range, but in reality it will ricochet.... And should you need to fire it through a mud hut wall of brick wall and the fellow on the other side has an 47, you are dead...... Really... go try it in the forest or your swamps... Of, did I mention the jamming problem with the M-16?

Zero May 11, 2016

Jim ," no man to buy or sell with out the mark" Thats why Im glad the US will Not be Part of The Beast system.

Zero May 11, 2016

oilguy0 , wish I knew half of what you know. Great insight !

Zero May 11, 2016

Jim ,By the way the DOLLAR will not be the world reserve currency if the mark of the Beast is to be the way to buy and sell in the Beast sys. Could the world dumping the DOLLAR be what causes WW3 to really break out? Would the World dumping the Dollar be a matter of High Level National Security? I guess we will see how it plays out with the BRICS, AIIB, and the other banking and metals markets they are setting up, that appears to be to dump the Dollar. I do appreciate your comments Jim. You seem to know a bit about whats going on.

Robert Setele May 11, 2016

Larry, You say that you do not expect a war between the US and China or Russia. However, if Russia is intent on taking back the Baltics and other states alligned with the US, and China is intent on taking over the South China Sea and surrounding lands (like Japan did in WW2) and attacks our allies in that region, The US will either be drawn into war with Russia or China, or cowardly abandon our allies. The Chinese government newspaper already declared that all of the Philippines belongs to China (not just the contested man-made islands , now made into military bases to potentially invade the Philippines).

Kevin May 11, 2016

Man Larry is really putting his neck on the line for us with that top secret information the government doesn't want you to know about. Larry is the next Snowden.

Richard Lowry May 11, 2016

The US is also in a state of tension, pushing towards major civil unrest, as a core result of the economy, that across the board is just getting worst. The US economy getting worsts should be obvious, by just observing the continued increase in the number of homeless, or having to move in with relatives and or friends, and people taking in or seeking roomates.

aceinthehole May 11, 2016

yes there is a war coming, but it will be worse than you could ever imagine.

nikki May 14, 2016

Seems that the more you define "trading currency" still results in the government being had. Anyone one can make you believe that the process is going to show strength. Then you must know the value of hard work, and also agree that faith without works is dead. So good luck balancing your check book. That old "cash and bonds" is overrated. Understand to adjust and rejust yourself and your family. A lot of transactions are hidden and deleted. Just make sure your showings are accepted and stored. Never know what might happen.

Demogorgon May 29, 2016

A few points I would take issue with in Mr Edelson's article: 1) China's spending on military is magnitudes less than the US's $600 billion. 2) Why wouldn't China increase its spending with the US 'pivot' to Asia and its encircling of Chinese territory with more alliances and armed forces? Just like the case of Russia. 3) Putin is intent on retaking previous Soviet satellite states?! Russian forces could have taken over Georgia in 2008, but didn't--opting for his limited objective of protecting Abkhasiaj and South Ossetia after the Georgian invasion. And why didn't Russian take over Eastern Ukraine when its majority population asked for re-integration into Russia after the assault of Ukrainian Nazi forces? As for Crimea, its populace voted overwhelmingly to re-integrate, which is apparently legal under international law. Finally, who engineered the coup of the Ukrainian government in the first place?! 3) Cyber espionage only from DPKR and China? Let's not forget the US capabilities and its NSA. 4) The separatists and terrorist organizations 'running rampant all over the world' are most commonly supported, funded, and even trained by greater powers who use them as geo-political tools. Witness what has really been happening in Syria for the past 5 years. If Mr Edelson bases his forecasts on his understanding of geo-politics, his credibility does not pass muster.