Kiss the Euro Goodbye

Way back in 1998, before the euro even got off the ground, I told everyone I could that the currency wouldn’t last. At best, I said, it would last until the year 2020.

Few believed me. Many said I was nuts. After all, how could I make such a definite longer-term forecast, especially involving a region of the world that then, and now, still represents the second-largest economic region in the world?

Well, forecasting that the euro would fail was simple: It wasn’t put together properly in the first place. It didn’t stand a chance to survive long-term and still doesn’t.

The architects of the euro — if you can call them that — didn’t have a clue as to what it takes to have a single currency. They just believed one size fits all. But oh, how very foolish, yet typical of leaders anywhere.

Fact: Although the European Central Bank (ECB) was created, each individual country’s former national or central bank was kept in place, with virtually all the powers it had previously.

In other words, the Bank of Italy, for instance, could create its own interest rate policy, set rates, itself, and yes, even print euros if desired.

Imagine that. It would be as if each of the 50 states in the U.S. had their own central bank that could decide its own interest rate policy and print dollars whenever it wanted.

Fact: Euro-planners also never set up a federal debt market. Instead, they figured the existing debts of the individual countries would suffice. No need to convert them to a national or federal debt. No need to unify anything. Just let those debts be.

Insane. What that did was create a potpourri of debts. Worse, underperforming countries could see their debts swing wildly in value as the new currency started to trade. No stability whatsoever.

And, it allowed other countries, such as Greece, to borrow oodles of euros at the low rates of another country when, in reality, its credit rating didn’t deserve such low rates.

To make another analogy, that would be as if the U.S. had no Treasury market whatsoever, and instead, relied on the debts of states as diverse as Mississippi and California as a kind of national debt market.

Fact: As a Continent, Europe is composed of almost 50 countries, each with its own language, own culture and own history. And some countries in Europe have even more than one national language.

So is there a common language in Europe so all Europeans can talk to each other? No, there isn’t.

Is there a common background of some sort that would unite them? No, there isn’t and never has been.

Is there a common future goal that would unite them? You might say an economic union would, which is what the designers of the euro had in mind. A United States of Europe so to speak. A peaceful, united Continent that could avoid the untold scores of wars that have plagued Europe throughout the millennia.

And that is certainly a nice goal or dream to have. But unless you put the infrastructure in place to make a real economic union, with sensitivity and empathy to all the different players and cultures involved …

Such an economic union doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of a surviving.

And indeed, that brings us to today, where now, the euro is finally cracking the last vestiges of important, long-term support.

The currency has already plunged from a monthly high of 1.6028 in July 2008 to 1.08826 as I pen this issue. That’s a humongous plunge of 32.08% in the past eight years, a record decline for a supposed major currency.

And now, as you can see from my latest cyclic forecast chart, the euro’s plunge is about to get a whole lot worse.

The currency has just cracked important support at the 1.0900 level.

It should now fall to the 1.0500 level, then 1.0300 then to 1.000 …

And ultimately, far lower, ceasing to exist at all by the year 2020.

What’s worse are the geopolitical ramifications. What was meant to unite Europe will end up causing the opposite: More and more civil protests … more and more discontent … more revolutionary actions … secessions … anti-Semitism and more, including bloodshed.

For you see, it’s the grand experiments of harebrained politicians that are always the root cause of discontent. They endlessly tinker with the likes of you and me, with the economy, with things they don’t have a clue about …

Until the whole house of cards comes crashing down.

My view: Kiss the euro goodbye. Avoid doing business in the euro at all costs. Stay in U.S. dollars. Invest in U.S. dollars, trade in U.S. dollars.

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. As the Dow doubles, some stocks will see explosive gains of 300%, 400%, 500% and more. To help you get ready to take full advantage of the bull market of a lifetime, I want to send you a complete Dow 31,000 Preparedness Kit — five distinct free reports! The first free report spells out step-by-step what you must do now to position yourself for amazing profits (and protection) over the next two years. Click here to download now!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 63

Martin March 2, 2016

Good analysis Larry - but could you please point it out to those people who think the UK would be damaged by leaving the EU (Boris & Kathy!) that the UK will be far better off by cutting loose from this impending disaster.

Howard March 2, 2016

Martin Anyone who can see through the maze of counter self interests knows that the UK would be infinitely better off out of the union.

J P Frogbottom March 2, 2016

Yup, the Euro was an ill thought out idea. Sometimes, the "Best & Brightest" just aren't very bright. The bigger question is how to 'unwind' the Euro? Hey, they are already in recession, who is going to renegotiate all those loans to local currency values? Who gets a haircut in that unwinding? Good Luck with that!

H. Guggenheimer March 2, 2016

The Euro was the price Germany had to pay for re-unification, to make it impossible for any future German government to re-arm out of sight. Unless another mechanism for this aim is found, the Euro will stay.

joseph deka March 2, 2016

You might be right , you might be wrong. In reality the US (Dollar) is much worse than the Euro. The debt load in the USA will never be repaid. The moment that the world this realizes, the USD will collapse and loose its position as reserve currency. There are still quite healthy countries in Europe, Germany, Netherlands, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Switzerland (although not belonging to the Eurozone). Time will tell but as long as the Central Banks of the world continue to be allowed to play their vicious money games, all outcomes are possible (never mind long term cycles, what is happening now on a grand scale has never been done before. If the CB's keep on printing money and buying up all the shares -what they are doing now-, they will buy for FREE all the wealth creation power in the world. (Buying APPLE,GOOGLE,J&J etc). On top of that there is enough free money for wars and bribing all politicians in the world. I believe we are stuck in our democratic system and the world is not going te develop in a pleasant way for most people. Unless a crash would wipe out all the excessive amounts pof printed money. Wellcome to the digital age I hear, cash less society. Worldwide control !!! No bank runs anymore. Absolute power.

EuroDoom March 2, 2016

I disagree. The Euro and the US$ are in a race to the bottom, and not only is the Euro winning the race, it's making the US$ look like a model of good management. Europe is doomed to chaos and civil war. The reasons can be explained in 2 words. Demographics Muslims

RAGNAR1 March 2, 2016

THOSE ARE THE NIRP COUNTRIES: NIRP MEANS YOU CANT PAY YOUR DEBTS! YOU'RE BK!

HJ, Maine March 2, 2016

Larry ! Are you claiming the each national central bank within the euro-zone can print Euros when-ever they feel like it ???

John C March 2, 2016

Legally, both the European Central Bank and the national central banks (NCBs) of the Eurozone countries have the right to issue the 7 different euro banknotes. In practice, only the NCBs of the zone physically issue and withdraw euro notes. The European Central Bank does not have a cash office and is not involved in any cash operations. However, the European Central Bank is responsible for overseeing the activities of national central banks in order to harmonise cash services in the Eurozone. The ECB has the exclusive right to authorise the issue of notes within the Eurozone, but most notes are actually issued by the National Central Banks (NCBs) of the Eurozone. As of 2004, 8% of banknotes were issued by the European Central Bank and 92% were issued by Eurozone NCBs. The issuing central bank can be seen from the serial number. Each NCB is responsible for the production of certain denominations, as assigned by the ECB. Since 2002, euro notes have been printed by the National Central Banks of the Eurozone, with each Central Bank being responsible for and bearing the cost of producing a proportion of the notes. The production of notes needs to be sufficient to meet expected and unexpected surges in demand and to replace unfit notes.

José DeLeon March 2, 2016

Excellent article. Too bad is true and as a former EU resident I lived through the expensive hay days of the early launch of the Euro. The dollar was pocket change. It's been amazing to see the decline of the European dream and its now tragic to see the inevitable. I do agree that Europeans are as different as you can expect and their long history was a major factor against the philosophy behind the unification the Euro was supposed to bring about. While its catastrophic its inevitable that the end is near. Who would say the Brits could have the wisdom and foresight to stay out as much as possible of this mess. I do however feel they came to the party ate and drank and now they must at least leave a big tip before the party is over. JD

Adi March 2, 2016

You use the word FACT as a marker after which you write anything but facts. FACT (printing own money): the national central banks CANNOT print Euros whenever they like - even if you believe they can, how do you explain that Greece and others have simply not done this as a solution? FACT (federal debt): I guess you never heard of Eurozone OMT nor looked at how ECB QE risk is shared. FACT (cultural homogeneity/50 languages/unique cultures): The Eurozone has 19 countries speaking 15 languages (not 50). Even in the wider EU there are 28 member countries speaking 24 languages (not 50). How many languages are used daily in the US for example? How many cultures have people living in the US? How many states does the US have -> 50. How are race relations or political positions in the US compared to the EU - pretty strained in the US it appears (East coast vs West coast vs black vs white vs Hispanic vs Christian vs Jewish vs Muslim vs Trump vs Sanders ad nauseum) - are they any better in the US than in the EU?

john March 2, 2016

Larry Could you cut and paste your 1998 warnings about the euro.. !! I would like to read what exactly you said >> Pity you did not include your 1998 statement John

$1,000 gold March 2, 2016

how's that gold bottom doing? ha, ha

joe March 2, 2016

gold going the wrong direction to hit 900. Larry told us not to buy any miners or gold back in July when it plunged. He said it would go below 1000. Cost people a lot of dough.

janice March 2, 2016

joe: Agreed......Larry's pretty good with ultimate direction forecasts....usually though, he's pretty bad with timing.....we're on our own on that part!

janice March 2, 2016

...So I do think gold will go down to or below Larry's 900 forecast......it just may go there from higher levels The REAL downtrend in gold will not come until we quit seeing all the advertisements on tv to "buy gold now"......

janice March 2, 2016

Excuse me....misstatement...I meant the REAL downtrend in gold will will not END until we quit seeing those ads It was only after gold started tanking that we began to see ads start really pushing gold, trying to sell coins

David in Williamsburg March 2, 2016

I entirely agree and a great point Janice. Larry's trend analysis I find excellent but recommendations, as you said you need to do your own analysis.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

where's your trademark, $1,000 gold? you're just a loser without it.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

for the last few years the real $1,000 gold has been saying gold is in a bear market and is on a journey to about $1,000 dollars where it will hit a strong resistance level and experience volatility. so far i've been right about gold the whole way, in spite of losers like the $1,000 gold imposter above who hijack my name. it's too late loser, i've already one.

harold kramer March 2, 2016

Would your short the Euro and be long BP# as a low cost $ commidity trade and for how long time wise??

Joe March 2, 2016

Although the UK is in the EU, and NOT in the Euro, they'll surely be affected by the Euro's destiny.

janice March 2, 2016

Today's employment numbers (if you can believe the government's numbers) came in much stronger than expected. After this recent rally, I think the markets will soon realize that the Fed will be hiking rates again shortly..........Look out below!!

janice March 2, 2016

...after all.....we're entering March now.......March-April....."'tis the season" for another market swoon.....

mike March 2, 2016

REALITY is "seasonally adjusted" as are the employment figures* *subject to downward revision once the headline numbers are passed out.

John March 2, 2016

You misunderstand the Euro. Individual countries cannot "print Euros" like the ECB can do. They can only borrow like US states. If they could print Euros, Greece would not be facing insolvency. And Greece cannot borrow at the same interest rate as Germany. The interest rates of the various Euro countries reflect the various default risks. There is no default risk for a monetary sovereign like the US, the UK, or Japan.

David in Williamsburg March 2, 2016

Adi, all very good points. I have posted before that the different countries in Europe are more stable because of the localized heritage and languages than our states. Also, our race relations to me are a disaster and labeling people in different categories such as African/Hispanic/Asian/Caucasian-Americans but not just as American to me creates diversity. My wife and I came here 35 years ago, we are originally European, English, me, Belgian my wife, I had a discussion with my Daughter the other day, she was 8 when we arrived here. I said it was divisive to call someone an Africa-American, I actually have a Black friend here who is also originally from England and he does not want that label. I also pointed out that Gael Monfils, I'm a big tennis fan, is not called an African-Frenchman, and there are lots of big name sports figures in Europe who are coloured but who are proud and happy to be called just English, French Italian etc. Also, Kevin Anderson a top South African tennis player that lives and went to college here, is white. He has applied for American citizenship. Will we call this 6' 8" white tennis star an African-American? As I said above, although I agree with Larry on the investment implications, I find that most of Europe is much more stable than the U.S.

Ivano March 2, 2016

This situation of labels is used by the Liberal Democrats to win elections by creating disenfranchised "sector that are pitched against one another such as: Rich whites versus poor whites, blue collar versus white collar, educated versus uneducated, Black people versus White people, Southern voters versus big city, inner city versus suburban and on and on. The Democrats are race hustlers, gender and economic hate peddlers. Exploiting the inner most human primitive fears of hate and jealousness. Pathetic but it has succeeded year after election year. With a black president.... American race relations is the worst it has been in 50 yrs. Obama did not heal the hatred, he exploited it. Just listen to their political speeches. They fuel the fires of hate.

Al March 2, 2016

The Euro countries are very diverse culturally, economically, and as a result, they are not unlike our 50 states in that respect. The biggest difference between the US and the Euro nations as I see it is that they do not have a central constitution and "cling" to country specific independence. The Euro nations have created a nightmare for themselves with their combined currency whereas countries like Greece can go afoul and countries like the U.K. can not prosper as a result. Then you have Germany with their serious internal problems regarding their "east side" and over 1 million refugees. Perhaps the only benefit of the Euro structure is a NAFTA like agreement regarding trade and even then, some countries benefit more than others.

OrganicFarmer March 2, 2016

Your argument suggests an investment in EUO would work out well. Why have you not recommended this action?

Ted F March 2, 2016

I think the Euro Zone and its currency was an attempt to unify Europe financially to a far greater extent the the European Common Market did or more localized than the British Commonwealth. But it lacked the vision or ability to unify Europe. There are a few people who still talk about the United States of Europe. But the European leaders missed a point that was not lost on the framers of our Constitution or on Washington and Hamilton. There has to be a single agency that covers the entire financial function. That is why only the Fed has the power to issue money and Hamilton had the Federal Government assume the various state notes and bonds issued by the various states during the Revolutionary War and issue one currency and one set of bonds, both Federal to cover those items. There is too much history and mistrust in Europe for any kind of unification, political or financial to take place, too many cemeteries and war memorials in European History. Maybe a few generations of peace and relative prosperity might change the situation

AndrewJ. March 2, 2016

This may surprise and perhaps amuse! The European Commission has just announced an agreement whereby English will be the official language of the European Union rather than German, which was the other possibility. As part of the negotiations, the British Government conceded that English spelling had some room for improvement and has accepted a 5- year phase-in plan that would become known as "Euro-English". In the first year, "s" will replace the soft "c".. Sertainly, this will make the sivil servants jump with joy. The hard "c" will be dropped in favour of "k". This should klear up konfusion, and keyboards kan have one less letter. There will be growing publik enthusiasm in the sekond year when the troublesome "ph" will be replaced with "f".. This will make words like fotograf 20% shorter. In the 3rd year, publik akseptanse of the new spelling kan be expekted to reach the stage where more komplikated changes are possible. Governments will enkourage the removal of double letters which have always ben a deterent to akurate speling. Also, al wil agre that the horibl mes of the silent "e" in the languag is disgrasful and it should go away. By the 4th yer people wil be reseptiv to steps such as replasing "th" with "z" and "w" with "v". During ze fifz yer, ze unesesary "o" kan be dropd from vords kontaining "ou" and after ziz fifz yer, ve vil hav a reil sensi bl riten styl. Zer vil be no mor trubl or difikultis and evrivun vil find it ezi TU understand ech oza. Ze drem of a united urop vil finali kum tru. Und efter ze fifz yer, ve vil al be speking German like zey vunted in ze forst plas. If zis mad you smil, pleas pas on to oza pepl.

Dan March 2, 2016

Terifik.....Zanks!

Mike March 2, 2016

Excellent!!!! You have a splendid sense of humor.

Norita March 2, 2016

Larry--regarding RWR report: Even if you are not issuing a buy signal for gold yet,can you update us from time to time so we can stay on top of this? You said gold had to meet a certain price by the end of February. It did not. Now what? You said you would have a few good miners to give us before end of February. I have heard nothing. Thank You

gypsy gene March 2, 2016

Larry issued a RWR flash alert last week to hold tight on gold. We are bouncing near the bottom.

Bob Schubring March 2, 2016

Smartly written, Larry. If I were writing the article, I'd mention one more fact. The United States is composed of fifty states. But only fourteen of those states, ever really existed as states. Texas formed in a revolution against a military dictator in Mexico. It was Ian independent country for most of a decade, before it joined the U.S. The thirteen British colonies were independent during the American Revolution. The other thirty-six states are colonies created by the U.S. Government as "territories", which it then granted statehood. Moreover, none of those states retained the power to print currency, because the federal constitution required them to use gold or silver as money. Spanish silver-dollar coins made from Mexican silver, circulated so widely in the Colonies in 1787, that the Constitution's writers adopted them as a de facto monetary standard. People paid each other in those Spanish silver coins, whenever they didn't know or trust each other's promises fully. Banks were free to create paper bank notes that got used in local communities in lieu of coins, but if they defaulted, they were on their own. Scammed depositors might riot and a lynching mob might seek street justice, and this threat was always on the minds of bankers. (California actually found it convenient to manufacture gold pieces that had a nominal value of 100 silver dollar coins, as there was a shortage of silver coins hauled there in the 1849 gold rush, and the mines kept putting out local gold.). The US Federal Reserve grew our single currency experiment in 1913, in response to the Panic of 1907, out of a polyglot of small, private banks, that each used to print their own scrip money used in their town. Essentially, bankers as a class, surrendered the authority to print scrip money, and the Federal Reserve protected bankers from getting hanged if their bank defaulted. Bankers, obviously, found this very agreeable. The 50-odd European nation-states that undertook their single-currency experiment, as you point out, already had their own central banks, and there were pre-existing relationships between central bankers and commercial banks. This fact guaranteed that there would be winners and losers in the unified currency deal, and it drove the biggest potential loser -- the UK -- to seek not to join the Euro currency. The dynamic that's now playing out in Europe, is that the UK is considering a pullout from the EU, if it must eventually surrender the Pound Sterling to Brussels and adopt the Euro. That's been a sore spot for a long time. British politicians are arguing the merits of a Brexit from the EU, now, because they realize that the EU wants to tap British capital to bail out France and the PIIGS countries, and they expect to force the EU to allow the Pound Sterling to continue in operation, as a condition of participating in the bailout. The basic error built into the EU's reasoning, is the same one made by Vladimir Lenin, that collapsed Russia's economy in 1993 and took the Soviet system with it. Lenin assumed that the path of Progress could be predicted, and that forcing Russians to some point along that path, guaranteed that they would continue progressing along it, once they got put there. There was no possibility of them going the other direction, thought Lenin. And it was unthinkable to Lenin, that just maybe he did not know the path that human cultural evolution would follow, in the first place, and that people might not follow any path at all. The EU thinks that if it builds what it believes to be a better government than the national governments that joined it, nobody would ever want something different...and that whatever it defines as "better", must be better. By building a system that cannot learn from it's mistakes, Eurocrats have guaranteed the system's failure.

Will March 2, 2016

Although an American I went to work in Indonesia for a German consulting firm and was getting paid with DM; when suddenly my salary payments were changed to be in Euros. Like you Larry, I recognized from the start that such a system could not last. I am just surprised that both the EU and the Euro have lasted this long; to me it was like wanting to eat your cake and have it too. I expect that when the Euro reaches its demise, the EU will be a failed experiment as well.

mike fader March 2, 2016

LARRY We Non Members of Global Currency DEPEND UPON YOU - for recommendations on SLAM DUNK currency options like the EURO HOPE you are not planning on short changing us for your other baby NOT right. ALSO waiting for GOLD and SILVER recs.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

so the euro won't work? you're right.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

if the euro won't work, how can you expect a world currency to work? it won't. a world currency would be an even bigger disaster than the euro.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

every country needs its own currency and its own central bank to regulate its own economy.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

even harder to believe is that anyone could possible think the yuan could ever become the world's default currency.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

the gold bull is over. it will rebound to a higher level, but not higher than its peak of $1,800 or so. it will go lower too, but eventually gold will settle in the $1,000 range for decades to come.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

i was right about gold. i was right about oil. and i was right about stocks too.

Will March 2, 2016

$1,000 gold,TM: Gold has not yet settled in the $1,000 range you speak of, so how are you right about gold?

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

in the fall of 2011 i said the gold bubble just popped. when the bubbles pop, they usually go all the way to a bottom. i have no idea where the bottom is. if i picked an amount and got it right, it would be just a lucky guess. but i could see a strong resistance level from the 1980 high that was just under $1,000 dollars. so at a time when everyone else was calling for gold to go to $5,000, i started planning for gold to go below $1,000. i began using the moniker $1,000 gold at that time because i expected volatility in gold and the markets as we approached the $1,000 level in gold. i'm not an expert. far from it, i'm an amateur. i don't expect anyone, not even a pro, to time the market with exact amounts. but if i can understand how gold works and its relationship with stocks, i can follow a game plan. i don't need to be exact to make money, i need to understand how the markets work. from what i've learn so far, gold acts as a barometer of the markets. understand the big picture in gold and you'll have a greater understanding of the markets. this is about making money, not being right or wrong. whatever help you to make money is what's important, not the ability for me to predict three years in advance whether or not gold goes to exactly $1,000. so far i've gotten all of it right. $1,000 gold is just a small part of it. one little item in a very long list.

R. Smith March 2, 2016

When I saw the phrase "harebrained politicians," it reminded me of something a good friend used to say. "Some people are educated beyond their intelligence." Sounds eerily familiar to the politicians in our day in the USA.

Mike One March 2, 2016

Forget the Euro. I am still trying to wrap my mind around two things: 1. Upon examining U.S. paper currency, I notice that it is a "Note" (loan) against the Federal Reserve Bank. 2. The Federal Reserve Bank is not an entity of the U.S. Government; it is the banker's bank.

thomas March 2, 2016

hi Larry, thank u for ur e-mails . i have been trying to buy gold and silver for the last 5 yrs . when the market was down . i'm on disability and no retirement .the market is finnally here ? i dont have thousands . every one tells me im wrong for investing in metals . can u help ? rite track or just wasting my money ... thank u very much thomas

thomas March 2, 2016

hi Larry , is gold & silver mining stock a better buy now at this time ? lots of mines are shut down . if the price of gold goes up would not the stocks for the co's ? thanks tom

Miners? March 2, 2016

Obviously, I'm not Larry, but I'll tell you what I think thomas... From what I understand, the declining price of gold has really given the miners a very difficult time....one from which they will not recover easily. Gold will have to go up quite a bit before the miners really begin to feel any relief... what few are left of them after all this!

Elwyn Jones March 2, 2016

Common Larry, you're just being a profit of doom. (Also, nobody in their right mind wants the UK out of the EU.) - An interesting thing to watch is that historically: NO Currency Union that Germany has ever joined has ever failed; but NO Currency Union that Greece has ever joined has ever succeeded. So we have an unstoppable force meeting an unmovable object! - Your analysis reminds me very much of the first Currency Union set-up by Charlemagne over 1200 years ago where the Italian Lira and the British Pound where at parity (This is why the symbol for the pound is an 'L': £). It was based on a Silver Standard, but some-how the Italian 'L' and the British 'L' managed to diverge in value. - I don't think the USA has been around that long, to be able to comment!

deerflyguy March 2, 2016

Yes, the euro will fall very soon, as will so many other fiat currencies. For the present, the dollar should be considered as sound enough to embrace, as the rest of the world already does, but it will eventually fall, too! It will probably be the last to fall, primarily because the world has a selfish interest in keeping it alive. A last bastion of hope, so to speak. Even so, the whole house of cards could fall very quickly. When it finally does, what will be the replacement monetary system? Since pessimism abounds, and optimists, if there are any, are keeping their optimism to themselves, why aren't there immediate discussions and contingency plans being formulated to lessen the blow when it eventually becomes reality? Is it that to do so would hasten the inevitible, by creating more public awareness to the terrible situation the world is in, and instill doubt and negativity in the minds of the public?

Anthonyo March 2, 2016

I pity da Euro Fool!

mikjall March 2, 2016

Larry, Your observations are pertinent, and you reasoning is sound, as far as it goes. And I have no doubt that you are right about the euro plunging lower against the dollar, and staying down for a long time. But your long-standing idea that the euro will disappear is, I believe, ludicrously naïve, because you overlook the fact that the euro will be kept in place by coercion, and by outright violence if that becomes necessary, just as the United States was kept together in a reluctant union by violence in its time, and for similar reasons: so that the rich and powerful players could dominate and plunder the poor and weak. Despite the propaganda, the European Union has no genuine commitment to peace, else it would have - even from the beginning, exerted itself to the full to establish healthy economic and commercial relations with Russia: an entirely realizable goal at any time after 1953, once Stalin was no more. The major EU partners are are either former imperialist states, or, in the case of Germany, former wannabe (and tried-to-be) imperialist states, now hoping to restore or establish their domination over much of the globe in union, since they couldn't manage to do it in competition with one another. The only thing that united them, before they lost their empires in WWII and its aftermath, was their common determination to contain and lock out (and if possible even destroy) Russia in the form of the Tsarist Empire and then Bolshevik Russia (just look up the history of, and motivation behind, the famous Sykes-Piquot agreement, dividing up spheres of influence in the Middle East). These are nasty, nasty people. The sounder and less hypocritical heads in the EU know that peace and prosperity can only come through solidifying healthy trade and commerce with Russia, and perhaps even inviting the Russian Federation into the Union, but sanity of that sort will never be realized since it's the nasties who are in control, and the various EU members are still profoundly dedicated to the malice toward Russia that has been in place for centuries, and to licking the boots of the current, American imperium, which commands them away from trade and commerce with Russia (China now also in the mix!), and toward its hegemonic self, and is willing even to provoke a hot war against Russia that would be fought to the last drop of European blood. The hegemon will also not allow the collapse of the euro, any more than Germany will, since, for both, it is an instrument of power and plunder. The US bailed out the euro before, when it went much lower against the dollar than it's likely to go now (did you forget that?), but, in the next round, naked violence will be the instrument, rather than a bailout. It won't just be a question of desperate youths waving flags and burning a few cars, but of jackboots - or worse.

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

are we seeing a double bottom in the s&p? aren't double bottoms a bullish sign?

$1,000 gold™ March 2, 2016

i don't know if it's the only solution or even the best solution, but it seems to me that increased demand for oil may be the only solution and possibly the best solution for oil. low unrate, low rates, low oil prices, all sound like a recipe for more driving, more drivers, and more car sales - which means increased demand for oil. a some point, oil storage tanks that are now filling will eventually begin a drawdown. that seems like it would be a turning point worth noting. the only thing that scares me in this world right now are the use of negative rates. let's hope it doesn't last long.

Low Oil Prices March 2, 2016

I think you're right 1,000: Low oil prices are the solution for low oil prices....BUT, it will take awhile to work off the "excess" in storage that we have now. How long? Who knows? BUT, there's nothing like a big war to use down a bunch of oil, especially if it's a war in the major oil producing areas.....I hope everybody just buys big, gas guzzling SUVs and let's skip the war to work off the oil glut!

Low Oil Prices March 2, 2016

Speaking of oil prices, they announced on CNBC this morning that the build in oil inventories is currently MUCH greater than what was anticipated..........AND YET, the price of oil is UP today!!! Unnatural market action?? Let's say it together: PLUNGE PROTECTION TEAM!!!

Dave March 2, 2016

No matter, the global banksters are engineering the collapse of the EU as well as the US....the only thing standing in the way of a one world government. Not a theory but fact! Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama presidencies were not just a coincidence. While the Reagan revolution continued until the 2nd 1/2 of Clinton, Bush and Obama's policies coupled with cooperation from Republicans as well as Democrats have pushed our debt and economy near to collapse. The globalists want it to happen so that a new leader will rise from the ashes to save the world.....so he/she will say....from itself and install global Marxism. This has been predicted for decades incl Jim Rickards.

Kurt March 2, 2016

Larry, imagine any currency lasting more than 40 years is rare. And having this country divided into geographical States where they governm there own financial wealth & debt. What a crazy idea for California, Texas, and any other state to consider. Why I'm with u, I think are federal government, treasury, and our own ability to print one currency when we feel like it & then expect u & me to pay an estimated 10 trillion in just the last 8 years is just peachy. More koolaid please Larry.

Denis March 2, 2016

Hi Larry, Read most of the statements made by the previous people,and most of them were on the 'ball'.The one that really stood out was--"some people are educated beyond there intelligence" by R.Smith .Keep up the good work Larry---solid as always. Denis--Canada.