Inflation?

The most frequently asked question I seem to get, even these days, is: "Larry, don’t you see hyperinflation for the U.S. in the years ahead?"

So let me clarify my position, here and now. There was a time when I expected the U.S. economy would eventually experience hyperinflation.

But when the price of gold failed to react to the Fed’s QE III announcement of virtually unlimited money-printing in September 2011 and the yellow metal entered a bear market, I knew something had radically changed.

So I further researched the known periods of hyperinflation in the world. And I found something that completely changed my view: There has never been a major core economy that has died at the hands of hyperinflation.

There was the Weimar Republic, of course, but it was not a core economy for the world. There are the hyperinflations of Zimbabwe, Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela now and countless other small economies that were never at the core of the global economy.

And upon further study, I found that even the Roman Empire, certainly a core economy during its reign, didn’t even die of hyperinflation.

It died largely because of abuse of power by politicians, which drove citizens away from the Empire; because of rapidly rising taxation, which had the same effect; and because of a corrupt treasury and justice system that tracked down and confiscated citizens’ wealth, largely to fund increased military campaigns, which were hoped to revive the Roman economy. Sound familiar?

Was there high inflation in Rome before it fell? Yes, but nothing of the sort of hyperinflation like we subsequently saw in Weimar Germany or any of the countries I mention above.

So, then, what does the U.S. economy face? Further disinflation, eventual reflation or something else?

My view, and I am not hedging my answer or talking out of both sides of my mouth: We face a combination of further disinflation in the short term, followed by a rather large jump in inflation a few years from now.

How high will inflation eventually go? Hard to say, but I wouldn’t be surprised if, say, three years from now, we see 20% or even 25% inflation for a very brief period of time.

How high will inflation go? Hard to say.

But I highly doubt we will ever see inflation in the thousands or even millions of percent. It’s just not possible in a core economy. For many different reasons.

Whether we have deflation or inflation is also the wrong way to think about the U.S. economy these days. The reason? Ever since we abandoned the gold standard, inflation and deflation have become two sides of the same coin.

In other words, they are both present in the economy at the same time. You can have certain goods and services and even asset classes deflating, while others are inflating. It’s as simple as that.

For instance, the price of LED TVs has crashed in the past year or so, as have the prices of laptop computers and many other goods.

So it’s not a matter of one or the other, it’s a matter of what sector is inflating and why, versus which sectors are deflating and why.

Nevertheless, there’s another important underlying force that you need to understand, another one that resulted from the abolishment of the gold standard.

A certain level of general, system-wide inflation is always baked into the cake. It’s due, again, to the fact that we no longer have a gold standard, but it’s also due to many other forces, such as population growth, limited availability of natural resources, the constant desire for people to improve their lives and more.

This is important to understand, because it’s the chief reason prices will be higher a year from now, five years from now and even 10 years from now … no matter what the U.S. or global economy does.

And it’s also why investing in gold — just after it experiences a short-term disinflationary trend — is an ideal strategy to jump on.

Speaking of gold. It looks good now. But you don’t want to buy it at these levels. Gold’s new bull market is just getting started. Let it prove itself by first pulling back — which it will do, to below $1,200 …

Then back up the truck. Ditto for other precious metals and especially mining shares.

Best wishes,

Larry

P.S. To help you get ready to take full advantage of the bull market of a lifetime, I want to send you a complete Dow 31,000 Preparedness Kit — four distinct free reports! The first free report spells out step-by-step what you must do now to position yourself for amazing profits (and protection) over the next two years. Click here to download now!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 62

Michael Coulson May 18, 2016

Sorry Larry but Weimar Germany was a core economy. Remember hyperinflation happened in the 1920s just after the end of the First World War when it took the UK, the Empire, France, the US (eventually) and myriad other nations like Japan and Italy to subdue Germany. If a country with that power isn't a core country, and therefore a core economy, I don't know what is! However you a

Johnny May 19, 2016

Core economy, he's referring to something resembling a world reserve currency. And no, Germany did not have that. So you are wrong he is right.

Sohail May 18, 2016

A Good reasoned article Larry thank you !

$1,000 gold™ May 18, 2016

i agree! good article, larry. with rates this low the fed could stop inflation in its tracks in a heartbeat just by raising rates as high as they want, much like volcker did in the late 1970s. there's not limit to how high the fed can raise rates. there is a limit to how far the fed can lower rates and that's the problem we have now.

$1,000 gold™ May 18, 2016

...and as far as negative rates are concerned, this is really bad idea. taking money out of investors' accounts is deflationary. not sure? then look at the opposite. putting money into investors' accounts would be inflationary, right? that's easy to see. so dozens of countries have decided to fight deflation with more deflation. we have some real idiots running this world. let's hope this bad idea of negative rates ends soon or guys like icahn, soros, and ackman will be right.

$1,000 gold™ May 18, 2016

do you really think we're seeing a bottom in gold already? bottoms are very painful, especially for something as important as gold. i would expect a bottom in gold to be well below $1,000. i'm still not ready to buy yet.

$1,000 gold™ May 18, 2016

i think the big news is what's happening in venesualia. this is just the first country to fail and more will follow. any country that depends on oil for its livelihood is going to end up with problems. one of the world's most serious problems is just beginning, but i don't think anyone else sees it.

Tim May 21, 2016

I agree gold will go way below $1000, personally I'm waiting for silver to dive and then back up the truck. The gold-silver ratio has been very high for some time, I see more upside in silver and you don't have to let this corrupt govt. know how much you have

MadMax2012 May 18, 2016

How about if/when the US dollar is de-throned as the world reserve currency? or if/and when the debt gets too big to service (as if it isn't already!) due to a serious recession/depression and we have to default? )will all bets be off then and hyper inflation be inevitable? your thoughts?

sandman May 18, 2016

I see this rally running out of steam especially in the mining shares - low volume rise in prices. Looking for a 50 percent retracement. There are some good companies that will thrive on the next leg up. Patiently waiting.

William May 18, 2016

What about the metals being manipulated. The prices will be what big banks want them to be priced at to protect Fiat currencies.

Buddyboy May 18, 2016

I have been sitting on the fence for several weeks trying to decide if to purchase 200 thousand dollars of gold coins would help to stabilize my portfolio incase of a inflation jump . Your $ 1,200 mark is good advice for me at this time it seems . I am hopeful that your advice is true . The gold standard would have influenced my decision sooner , but all the gold in the world couldn't keep up with the rate the Feds are printing $ 100 bills , with the debt approaching $ 20 trillion . I should just consider moving to a island in the Caribbean and living on a sailboat . HUMMMM

bill May 18, 2016

this IS enough gold; (to balance the world's currencies) ; the key is how much gold is valued at: $10,000/ounce is a good start; read James Rickards

AK May 18, 2016

Buddyboy - if you waiting for the right price to buy Gold you may be sorely disappointed. What if some black swan event makes the price of Gold jump $100 over night and rises from there? I have never been a fan of Larry's advice to time the purchase of Gold. Gold is insurance and should be acquired over time.

apollocreed May 18, 2016

Jim Rogers has a forecast that gold will fall to about $900/oz. If you're a long term investor then neither is worth waiting for. Just buy now.

Buddyboy May 18, 2016

Great !!!

William Hatch May 18, 2016

Why are many warning of the dollar being replaced as the world currency? Some point to June 2016 as the edge of the cliff. Is gold the answer?

Eagle495 May 18, 2016

Remember 1932-1981 when there were lots of "Good Middle Class" jobs and tax rates were set to pay our bills and we had a huge successful Middle Class and Income Inequity was NOT a problem? We'd come out of the Republican Crash of 1929 and the Great Depression they caused because of the lack of Financial Regulations that kept dangerous speculation under control..... Remember how good life was then? Do you remember that was a period of Democratic Leadership when the politicians in control tried to make a better life for the 97%? That period lasted roughly 60 years...... Then we forgot 1929 and the Great Depression as our lives were so good..... In forgetting, we let the jackals return for roughly the cCassic Conservative 30 year Cycle and here we are all over again having repeated 1929 in 2007 with a follow on Depression that they want to call "The Great Recession" (which, of course it wasn't), Income Inequity is through the roof and our Federal debt is also through the roof because the gave their sponsors, the 3%, HUGE tax cuts without cutting Federal spending...... And now the great "Liars Club" would like you to believe that our horrible economic and financial conditions are the "Democrats Fault" (Go figure)...... They must think we are really dumb to keep believing the billions they spend on their falsely told stories...... One thing about the Classic Conservative Cycle is they it always ends with economic destruction..... So what was it that our Grandparents tried to teach us?

Will May 18, 2016

Eagle, I still like Ike.

Diae DeSanders May 18, 2016

This popular misreading of history is simply tragic.

steve hernon May 18, 2016

Your delusional 60 year period forgot to include WWII where 60+ million people died under democrat leadership; the more than 5 million people who died in the Korean War under democrat leadership and finally the 2 million people died in the Vietnam War under democrat leadership. Enuf said

Mike May 18, 2016

Note that Eisenhower, Nixon and Ford did not attempt to dismantle the framework of economic success. Nixon even oversaw the creation of the EPA and proposed the Earned Income Tax Credit. He offered Ted Kennedy a Government healthcare plan. Kennedy turned it down and later said it was his biggest political mistake. Nixon realized that Government/Business partnerships would benefit everyone. Reagan’s Voodoo Economics has led to a 1900% increase in the National Debt and ruinous income inequality. Truly conservative economics demands that taxes cover spending. If we really need to spend 1.2 trillion dollars per year to protect ourselves from our own inane Foreign Policies then we should return to the 91% top tax bracket of the 1950’s and corporate taxes should again cover 40% of the Federal Budget not the 7% they cover today.

Justin May 18, 2016

Huh? Are you really that old? The Great Depression lasted over a decade. Those who were actually alive back then report that we really didn't come out of it until we entered WWII. Tthere were few "Good Middle Class" jobs throughout that period. There remains an argument in economic circles that the policies to get us out of the Great Depression actually prolonged it. The one thing that was absolutely proven in the 1930's, is that activist government and central banking policies cannot engineer prosperity. And yet, political consensus is that activist government and central banking policies can engineer prosperity. Before the Great Depression, all depressions were short lived. There was an episode of wealth destruction followed by efficient restructuring. After WWII, we enjoyed the War Dividend for decades. What is the War Dividend? Well, we were the only country to not get bombed into the stone age during WWII. We not only won the war, but were the only country left standing with all of its infrastructure intact. It had nothing to do with which political party was in power. You obviously don't remember just how bad things were at times in the 1960's and more so in the 1970's. And the seeds of a violent revolution had begun to grow. We really didn't enter our current era of prosperity until Apple and IBM introduced their desktop computers in the early 1980's. So, here we are today with the notion, conceived during the Great Depression, that an activist government and central bank can engineer prosperity. Well, it was the activist central bank's easy money policies of the 90's that resulted in the 2000-2002 bear market. It was the activist central bank's easy money policies and our government's failure to regulate, all to boost the economy to fight terrorism, that over stimulated the housing sector and resulted in the near destruction of our economy from 2007-2009. Do you remember Senator John McCain's efforts to fix Fannie and Freddie before the housing crash that were blocked the Democrats? Apparently not. And here we are now, with the Fed's prolonged ZIRP and still no prosperity. All sorts of distortions have resulted where good money is chasing bad investments instead of pursuing investment venues that will result in long-term dividends for our country and economy. Finally, as to partisan politics, I understand that this is an election year. But today's politicians are nothing like their counterparts of the 20th Century. Republican president Eisenhower would be regarded as a conservative Democrat by today's standards. Bush's massive expansion of the government and activist central bank policies would be regarded as a Democrat in the last century. Hillary and Bernie would be regarded as communist sympathizers in the 50's and 60's. And Trump, well a fool is always a fool...

D2 May 18, 2016

Eagle, it isn't simply a Republican vs. Democrat thing. With your knowledge of history, you should know better. We don't really have a 2-party system. They are both the same. Both parties have spent us into oblivion. They both serve their masters and those masters are NOT the average American citizen. Both parties have screwed us royally for their own personal benefits and power. Look at all of the failed US cities (and states) which have been run by Democrats for decades (!) and are failed institutions....Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Washington DC, etc. Don't let the powers that be fool you into thinking its all the fault of one party or another....they have BOTH been traitors to the intent of our founding fathers.

PB May 18, 2016

Totally agree with you, D2. Both parties are controlled by the deep state which is why nothing really changes in the downward trajectory of our country. Presidential elections are just entertainment and distraction for the masses who still operate under the illusion that they have a say in who runs our country. Trump is the first non-establishment candidate to ever get this far in the normally totally controlled process, which has both parties in a panic, they don't know how they will control him. Trump is so naive he thinks PotUS is an entry level position. So he plans on making 'deals' and delegating everything else to his yet-to-be-determined team.

Eagle495 May 18, 2016

Do do I

Eagle495 May 18, 2016

Again, the Conservative Cycles always end with a Stock Market Crash and a Depression... The beginning of the end started to dismantle with Reagan.... Their unbridled greed always brings suffering in the end.....

Eagle495 May 18, 2016

The bottom began in 1932.... The Democratic Majority in Congress held mostly from 1932-1981 and therefore the policies, no matter who was President went to improving the lives of the 97%... You listen to Rush too much... It was the Republican removal of the "Inner City Restriction" of Barney Frank's Bill that let the "Liar Loans" go nationwide.... That made the Big Banks who supported the Republican candidates make Billions...... Changing Fanni Mae" was a smoke screen... As for Hillary and Bernie being labeled "Communists", I would point out that the Conservatives also called FDR a "Communist" and yet our Grandparents re-elected him more than any President in American history....... Study College economics and trun of the xreamers who are leading you astray on Right Wing Radio which broadcasts out of Clear Channel, owned by the hedge fund Romeny has a huge stake in...

Eagle495 May 18, 2016

Ya, ya, ya..... The TRUTH: $10,000 invested between 1929 and 2012 in only Democratic Administrations would have grown to roughly $300,000. The same amount invested in only Republican Administrations would have only grown to $11,000... The number of years both types of administrations led America are about the same for that period... And you were saying that they are the "SAME"? Geeezzz... :(

Eagle495 May 18, 2016

Ya, there was another German who came to power in Germany in the 1930's who posed and had much the same blame game and run away ego that Drumpf has... That did not end so well either...

F151 May 18, 2016

Those numbers are cooked. An extensive study of stock market returns from the founding of both parties shows that there is a very small advantage, currently, for the Dems. Very, very, very small. It the difference just isn't within the realm of significance, 495 -- and you know it. A shame that you are so partisan that you just cannot tell the truth in your daily diatribes. Presidents have very little impact on markets. But they can....as with Bush 2 and Obama, run up great debts (especially Obama who has doubled our national debt) and do long lasting damage in that manner.

espy May 18, 2016

The garbage continues. The recession of 1920 (following 16 years of Progressives in the White House) would have been far worse than the recession of 1929, had it not been for more Progressive nonsense that led to the so-called, and unnecessary Great Depression...and reconstruction largely was responsible for it ending beginning in the late 40s and continuing under Ike through the 50s. Facts are very stubborn things.

real americans dont lie May 19, 2016

Who remembers 1932-1981 that was like 80+ yrs ago just how old are you.

real americans dont lie May 19, 2016

And i can find this information on wikipedia.

real americans dont lie May 19, 2016

The more i find out about the clintons im realizing theres no way i can vote for hillery or billery im still feeling the bernie burn i know he is old but he still resonates with voters

Rock May 19, 2016

The New Deal did more for the average man than the Bill of Rights. Before 1936 most Americans were unemployed, poor and unhealthy. After 1945 most Americans were prosperous and had health care and a retirement.

Surferruss May 20, 2016

Another left wing revisionist interpretation of history. And the federal budget for national defense is set at 0.8 trillion for 2016, not 1.2 trillion. One of the few things the government does that was enumerated in the constitution. However, the department of education, who has never educated a single student has a budget of 1 trillion dollars for 2016, 1.3 trillion for government pensions, 1.5 trillion for government health care .5 trillion for welfare and all other spending, (god only know what that is), 1.6 trillion. And after removing 6.7 trillion from the economy, we will still rack up another half a trillion to our deficit under Mr Obama. BTW, voodoo economics was just a political slogan that H.W. Bush used against Reagan during election campaign.

Edouard D'Orange May 21, 2016

That what I keep telling delusional eaglet495. Was the increased spending and resulting stock market gains under democrap's inept leadership worth the hundreds of thousands of U.S. men's lives? Then great Republican leaders had to suffer the inevitable downturns of gross overspending and painful transitions out of war time economies. Great men such as Eisenhower, Reagan and both Bushes.

Gary May 22, 2016

The beginning of the end started with Johnson's Great Society and Dodd Frank! Not that hard to figure out. Let us not forget the toll also that an open southern border has cost this country. Both parties are guilty at a great cost to the American people!

Gary May 22, 2016

Thank you! Dead on reply!

ric May 22, 2016

Hitler was not a "natural born" citizen of Germany, as he was born in Austria. Trump is a "natural born" citizen of the United States, as he was born in the US with both parents US citizens (although his mother was Scottish who was naturalized as a US citizen.) This is a major difference. None-natural-born citizens, that get to the top leadership position of countries, tend to "use" the countries that adopted them for their own selfish megalomania purposes without regarding for the welfare and sufferings of the people in the countries that adopted them. Napoleon is another example. A "foreign" born leader is more likely to "use" people no matter if the people suffers than a "natural born citizen" leader. In some ways, some, but by no means all, Texans consider Texas to be another country, and thus leaders from Texas sometimes acted as if they were "non-natural-born-citizens" in that these these "self-described-foreigners from Texas" showed lack of "love" for the people of the country, as a "natural-born-citizen" leader would. As such, Hitler just used Germans as cannon folders for his selfish quest for world domination by all out lying to, and extreme fooling of the German people via totally false propaganda. Ditto Napoleon in some ways. Of course, it is conceivable that a "natural born" citizen leader may be so selfish as to "use" his people with total abandon, but it is less likely than any "non-natural-born" citizen leader, as history has demonstrated.

Geo May 23, 2016

So WWII was a mistake? We should have let S. Korea fall to the communists? And actually Ike started American involvement in Vietnam. Johnson escalated and Nixon escalated even more. Talk about simple minded, ignorant and delusional.

paul May 18, 2016

Larry, are you anticipating the Fed's raising interest rates .25 in June, which will cause a temporary drop in the price of Gold/Silver?

Rayban May 18, 2016

Larry, I agree with you that the United States is not likely to experience the same kind of hyperinflation we have seen other countries such as Argentina experience in the last several decades, however, I believe there is a more thorough explanation as to why. I suggest you listen to the argument put forth by the Economist Richard Duncan as to why the United States has not experienced hyperinflation despite unprecedented increases in the money supply implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank. Here is a link to Richard Duncan's video giving his explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgG3ZFJAXrk

david May 18, 2016

Larry, To even speculate that inflation could rise 20 to 25 percent in the next three year is just reckless talk. I suppose if World War 3 was to break out you may be right but that's unlikely don't you think? And as far gold is concerned like I've said before if I bought it 8 years ago I would be sitting on a pile of gold worth about what I paid for it. The stock market has always been a tried and true way to make money. Gold is for doomsdayer's and over the last 8 years as proven to be a bad investment. But you just go right ahead and keep pushing it. Maybe someday doomsday will come. I'm just not gunna sit around and wait for it.I have better things to do with my time and money.

PB May 18, 2016

David, where you go wrong is you think of gold as in investment instead of insurance. You hope you don't need it but you buy it because your 'house' is setting the path of a highly likely wildfire.

Rubit May 18, 2016

The psychology is getting broad.

Will May 18, 2016

Larry, my main concern remains the high potential for stagflation. All the world economies have had growth stagnate, and inflation is needed to pay off all the debt. The problem is that you can not devalue all the different currencies against each other at the same time; but, you can devalue them all together at the same time against gold. That is the only solution to the mess that central banks have put currencies into. The party is about over and the music will stop as the mass of black swans lift off the placid waters once the first swan rises. When lift off happens it will be too late to buy gold at any price. Better on the train with a coach ticket than at the ticket window looking to buy first class as the train leaves the station.

Raghu Giuffre - Raghu-Nomics May 18, 2016

You are one of the first to talk of this simultaneous inflation and deflation of different sectors vs the typical 'one or the other.' This rotation is plotted and mastered as a financial manipulation by 'them' global powers of the system and yet this is only part of the answer. The other and increasingly larger factor for a growing number of sectors is both technology and corporate profecientcies throughout every step of their respective services. Technology is providing an ever larger savings of raw materials against the exponential enhancement of both raw materials and utility allowing more people to do a lot more things on a lot less. Much of that added performance is outside the corporate metrics of 'Productivity' and so goes unaccounted for in today's economic modeling but we at Raghu-Nomics are building out this 'Performance' metrics that is the public sectors measure of added efficiencies by the individual at home, sport and play. This side of the economic equation provides for a massive offset to the seemingly deleveraged printing press of paper money. The 2 billion smart phones of the world are just one example to the thousands that have provided exponential enhancement to our lives performance of which only a small tip of that iceberg crosses over into commercial productivity. It's the new inflationary X Factor. You heard it first from Raghu-Nomics.

Kevin May 18, 2016

Larry what will provide a bigger return your $5k gold or $31K DOW? I know the big money can't buy gold, or are very limited with exposure, vs buying stocks instead. Thx

Donald Link May 18, 2016

Minor note. The British economy underwent a period of rather severe inflation after WW II when the pound devalued to the point of real hardship. Brought in a Labor government that just made things worse. While it can be argued that the economy did not completely collapse, it sure felt like it for a lot of people for a very long time. All things being said though Larry, I would really prefer not to have to test out your theory in this country.

AusKiwi May 18, 2016

The reason that hyperinflation isn't happening in the US are the very things that are pointed to as causing the fall of Rome: excessive taxation caused by corruption and military expenditure. These 2 things among others act as a giant vacuum cleaner, sucking up all the excess money pumped into the economy by QEIII. You see, hyperinflation is caused when the average citizen gets to spend the money printed by the Fed. What happened in Zimbabwe is that Mugabe handed the money to the indigenous people of the country, and because they had so much money that they no longer needed to work, they went on a spending spree, but the laws of supply and demand pushed up prices as the merchants realized that they could charge whatever they wanted because people had lots of money to spend. The reason this didn't happen in America, was because the money was loaned to the banks, not the people. And because it was a loan, the banks in turn loaned the money out selectively to the creditworthy (ie already wealthy) minority of the public at interest, so the majority of people were no better off, hence could not spend more. In addition, the above mentioned taxation because of military expenditure and corruption, places an additional burden on the people, so they can't spend. They can't afford to buy gold, so the price of gold languishes. Their fuel consumption doesn't increase, as they can't afford to go on holiday in their cars or on airliners, so the price of oil goes down. No, the spending is done by an elite few on projects determined by those elites, They are spending their money on their grand project of a new world order. It's an expensive project involving wars, bribery, and corruption on a grand scale, and the profits go to the arms manufacturers and the politicians whom they control. The people only benefit to the extent that they are employed in the services of this grand project, ie they work for the government or the military, or corporations which have been co-opted into the NWO project. And yes, if you vote for the Democratic party you are voting for more welfare for the poor, but the poor won't get rich from it, they will remain poor. Welfare is another big vacuum cleaner that sucks up the money from the economy and trickle feeds it back to the poor who will then have just enough to enjoy the bread and circuses provided for them (processed foods, recreational drugs such as alcohol, tobacco and now legalized pot, TV, cellphones, tablets, etc). There is just enough for these people to survive week to week, and if they don't keep playing the political game of voting for their masters, the money gets cut off. After all, there aren't enough jobs to go around for everybody, and years of welfare living have made many of these people unemployable anyway. This is the world we live in, and we are all playing the game. Vote Republican and nothing will change. Will QE stop if Trump gets elected? Not unless he wants the economy to crash in a burning heap. The money printer has to keep running, until the project is completed. Not long now folks. World government is just around the corner...

F151 May 18, 2016

Pretty good writeup. The welfare state championed by LBJ and his successors has been a disaster. Massive welfare giveaways destroy the human spirit. It is akin to heroin in the extent of its destructive nature. Indeed, a friend of mine has a sister that has been on welfare, food stamps, rentfare, etc in Washington State for over 30 years. He tells me she has never worked a day. Her life is defined by the State and the party that fosters this mess.

Richard May 18, 2016

Our economy is in grave danger due to the economic ignorance or navity of our citizens!Our educational system is dominated by far left people who were never exposed to free enterprise experiences! This creates a huge number of people who will push this nation toward the suscide path of socialism ! Unless, the people who support free enterprise are more aggressive in knowledge and supporting a wealth creating system , we will descend into poverty and your investments will no longer be important because a bleak poverty will descend over the land of the free and prosperious

Billl May 18, 2016

Supply & demand still rules. But there is supply of gold, and-. Demand for gold depends on # of people having enough money to even consider buying gold.

Iza Mas May 19, 2016

Mr. Adelson, I do appreciate the fact that you do self criticism but you may add to the reason that the dollar does not collapse under inflation in-spite of the liquidity flood is the fact that these created monies circulate only within financial institutions and not reaching the global consumers. US dollar is strong Vis a Vis other currencies simply because it has replaced gold. Use of the dollar in the oil trade has created this inverse relationship with this one commodity. This is by design. Some think that Trump will cause the dollar to strengthen further is a joke. To think that the Chinese economy is in trouble is another joke. It is still growing at 6 % and they should be able to deal with the high debt with ease. If Trump has his chance to upset China's leaders or others in the BRIC, the dollar bubble will be caused to implode. This may force the violent return to gold with disasters fall in all fiat currencies. This may be what is going to happen if the FED continues to pursue their ill-conceived policies.

Emanuel May 19, 2016

FORGET THE NAY SAYERS.... WE CANNOT DENY MR. EDELSON KNOWS WHAT HE'S TALKING ABOUT. KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK. PVT INVESTOR SINCE 1995.

H. Craig Bradley May 20, 2016

The Real Signs of Political and Social Collapse Rome was not built in a day and similarly, it did not collapse in a day either. Same will be true for the United States. We all live and die in real time, not 8.6 year or 80 year cycles. Of course, some trends cycle and rotate until the end, usually brought about by a drastic drop in core public confidence in their nation's government. Venezuela seems to have hit this "waterfall" event, going over the edge. There are too many dollars in use globally to cause hyperinflation just by printing a few more Trillion dollars worth of paper. Some kind of catalyst would also be necessary. However, such a precursor to real collapse has not yet occurred in America, although 1929-1932 and 2008-2009 each came fairly close. Until such a decline in public confidence occurs, gold can not make a new all-time high, says economist Martin Armstrong. He has done extensive research into Roman Monetary History to prove it too. It may take a bone-jarring shock or crisis of some kind, either at home or abroad, to trigger the public stampede away from their government. Losing a war would be a possibility. A bond market blow-up could be the necessary (financial) trigger to get the ball rolling if interest rates spiked way up on short notice, wreaking havoc in the markets. Nobody is predicting that. Janet Yellen is hardly a hawk. Inflation is nowhere to be seen.

H. Craig Bradley May 20, 2016

STAGFLATION IN FOUR MORE YEARS ? Sure hope Larry is wrong about double digit inflation coming in 2020. Stock Markets don't like that kind of inflation and would react to it. It would kill the Bull Market (both stocks and bonds) we have if it does not die-off before then. I am not sure what interest rates would be, but they would sure not be this low with 20% inflation. Volcker-sized interest rates (double digits) would cause the national debt to skyrocket and the dollar to tank, forcing unemployment up. I can also picture capital controls and wage and price controls in such a situation, as well. Actually, it would be a sort of repeat of the Jimmy Carter years, particularly 1979-1980. Sure don't want to relive that experience. If Hillary Clinton is elected, which may happen, then she may be like President Jimmy Carter with double digit inflation in her last year or two ( 2019-2020). Maybe then America would be finally be ready for a true conservative and not a firebrand or reality show host to fix things. Alternatively, we might drift towards a dictator or emperor to rule us or restore order. America would definitely be in-play with a worst case economic scenario. Sure hope it does not come to that.

John May 21, 2016

I'm surprised that no one mentioned NAFTA that happened during the Clinton years that in my opinion was the start of a lot the manufacturing going south to Mexico ,costing millions of good paying jobs in this country.

Josephus May 22, 2016

I am not the one to get into this far fetched argument. Maybe gold will go up by 100% or more, but when it does it will not be advertised by the media or the government. When gold rises to a high degree, it will be due some natural disaster on some man made catastrophe. When this happens paper money will be worth 0.

Ian May 26, 2016

To better prepare, read Robert Prechter's 2nd edition of CONQUER THE CRASH:How to survive and PROSPER during the coming DEFLATIONARY depression. The 2nd edition is excellent with a 'where are we now' guide, and the predictions from the 1st edition have been spot on ! Yes, it was predicted that central banks around the world would print money like crazy and buy debt TO NO AVAIL ! Robert Prechter and Harry Dent have been the 'deans' of the Deflationist camp for a long time now having very heated arguments with the Inflationists (youtube this one !) The Inflationists may have won battles here and there, but the Deflationists like any minority point of view WINS THE WAR ! When you try to inflate your way out of debt, you are only making the DEFLATION far worse !