What the Heck Is Going On?

With the world in crisis, my email inbox is flooded. Especially so, since over four years ago, I forecast a period of rising domestic and international geopolitical tension, violence and even war.

At the time, almost no one believed me. They even laughed. I even told them the Federal Reserve and other central banks would be meaningless going forward. As would interest rates. Everybody — and I mean everybody — thought I was nuts.

Even more so, when I told everyone that the geopolitical tensions would end up sending the Dow Industrials to new record highs near 31,000.

Well now, no one is laughing. To the contrary. The world, including the U.S., is crying. And now, everyone is asking me, “What the heck is going on?”

It’s not like I didn’t warn you. I warned you repeatedly starting in 2013 that the world would be breaking apart at the seams. That there would be new wars and new terrorist groups in the Middle East. And that the European Union would start to break apart like an eggshell.

And that, yes, major protests and divisiveness would even come to our own country.

What is this phenomenon that is driving such divisiveness in today’s world?

It’s the accumulation of deficit spending, poor corporate governance, poor political leadership, ignorance and more from the leaders of the world.

It’s all coming to a head through the cycles of war that I have previously written about. Those cycles do not crest until late 2020/early 2021.

Between now and then, you can expect more of what you have recently seen. More terrorist attacks in Europe and the United States. More domestic unrest on both continents. More political unrest. And ultimately, the entire collapse of the European Union.

The U.S. will fare better. It will have its terrorist attacks and its domestic unrest. And to be sure, a whole new set of crazy, insane leaders ignorant of history and how these things work.

But of all the places in the world, we will still be the prettiest, and capital will be attracted to our markets, especially the stock market.

Of all the places in the world, capital will be attracted to U.S. markets.

So in the months and years ahead, when you see the world falling apart around you, don’t automatically assume the dollar will crash and so will the U.S stock market.

No. As bad as it will get here, from the rest of the world’s perspective, the U.S. will still be an island of safety for capital.

Get used to it. It will change everything you know. It will change everything you thought about economics. It will change everything you thought you knew about investing.

Accept it and you will protect and grow your money like never before. Ignore it and you will lose almost everything.

Best wishes and stay safe,

Larry

P.S. Click here to join me and my subscribers in my Real Wealth Report!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 40

Sulemon July 20, 2016

Larry, i thought china is the best place on earth. Isn't that why you live there. Has gold finally topped, it keeps going up?

Mandag Selit July 20, 2016

Larry lives in Thailand, not in China. China is still a communist country, and life is very restricted. Many chinese are trying to come to the US, like the rest of the world. Where did you get the idea that china is the happiest place on earth?

Jung July 20, 2016

Yes larry lives in thailand. China is suffering greatly due to strengthening of dollar, which makes their good more expensive to Europe. China will devalue currency again, watchout! Short BABA is the best trade for this.

Jim Bandinelli July 20, 2016

Larry, the world is global, that’s been touted for a few decades, and therefore investing is global, again that’s what has been touted. Is your message changing that dynamic, is 25% of an investor portfolio on the other side of the ponds no longer to be looked at as a risk diverse strategy?

Bill July 20, 2016

With all that said and I believe your prediction is accurate but what is going on in the market? New highs! Several other analyst I subscribe to call this a buying time. A unique situation even. I notice these highs were again made around the third week of an option expiration month. Is something going on behind the scenes, I don't know. I believe we are overdue for a pullback but I also hate to miss the train if it's leaving the station.

Watching Closely July 20, 2016

I agree with you Bill

Phil July 20, 2016

No one can predict, or perhaps even understand, short term (weekly, option-driven, monthly) moves in any particular asset class. Larry's AI and cycles models are a much longer term set of predictions, not all of which may occur. Just be prudent, and don't worry about calling exact tops and bottoms in markets.

Stu July 20, 2016

If this scenario does in fact happen, we need to have certain things in line. First, we need good strong leaders that can unify our country. Second, we must have the strongest most efficient military in the world, second to none, because we will be tested internationally. And third, we must have that never give up attitude and that same kind of strength and determination that the greatest generation had. And we could do without the fed trying to manipulate our system. At the very least this will be an interesting and trying time for all

john July 20, 2016

Larry I sold my gold mining shares on your last gold prediction! Hopefully the shares will fall and I can pick them up at a cheaper price in afew months? If your prediction is correct I win if you are wrong I lose> I note your prediction for EU collapse has moved 3 years ???? I note your prediction that US stock market and dollar as the safe haven. Do the other contributors at WEISS agree or are you a loner on these predictions? J

Russ July 20, 2016

I also sold most mining shares on Lamy's reco. Today they are Lower. The chart curves are rolling over to the downside.

Fred Robichaud July 20, 2016

Your not nuts, even though it sound like it sometimes!!! and you have been right most of the time, and that makes you an island of very valuable info. Regards

Greg July 20, 2016

We don't need to worry here in the UK-our economy is going from strength to strength and Brexit has not affected us much-and leaving will be a great bonus long term. I agree Europe is finished and not before time either.

Chuck Burton July 20, 2016

You are probably correct, Greg, since the UK will ally itself, economically, at least, with China. As will the US, ultimately, after the coming collapse.

Ron July 20, 2016

Brevity hasn't actually happened yet!

JIm July 20, 2016

Any your projects on Gold mining ETF's? Stay, Buy or Sell? Thank you for your overviews, they are read every Wed and a snapshot of what is going on from your Vantage Point! Please keep them coming.

Thomas July 20, 2016

wHAT is your take on GDX --- or do you like small cap gold stokes?????

RichardBbosshardt July 20, 2016

Larry, you have always said the Stock market will yet go down before the long bull market. Has that gone by ? The same for gold & Silver, which you said will yet occur in the next months. Where are we on the respective curves ? Thanks, Richard

Watching Closely July 20, 2016

Great question

Floyd July 20, 2016

Richard, perhaps this may answer your question. Through your search engine type "Stocks Have Topped — Temporarily Larry Edelson Wednesday, February 3, 2016 " and read Larry's post.

Tom July 20, 2016

Larry, I want to thank you for all the hard work, and been amazed to see these events unfold before my very eyes. Can you please tell me if I should go long equities now? The Dow is holding 18,500.

James July 20, 2016

You seem to be in agreement with Harry Dent as far as the cycles go and the prediction that precious metals will drop. Although he is predicting the DOW will drop "big time".

David C. July 20, 2016

James, I also read Harry Dent and his and Larry's forecasts agree on several points. However, where I think where Dent misses the point for a lot of people, when he predicts Gold will fall to $700, is that Gold and Silver has done very well in US $'s but they have saved a lot of people in other currencies. I have dual nationality, British and American, my wife is originally from Belgium so I watch what is going on in England and Europe closely as the majority of my 'family' is still there. The British Pound is down from around $1.60, the Euro is down from around $1.36, so for these people Gold has been a fantastic place to hold their wealth, something Dent does not seem to factor in.

Jim July 20, 2016

Check out Jeff Opdykes' take. He is on board with Dent in every respect except his gold forecast. Dent says all commodities will plunge but misunderstands that gold is more of a currency than a commodity. He also argues persausively that Dent's well researched model is based on normal economic cycles, but our current environment is anything but normal. Governments and Central Banks have abused paper currency in a way they never have. This Ieaves gold as the only safe store of value and it will be priced accordingly. Because of the volatility he recommends regular small purchases until you build a decent position. Makes sense to me. Jim

$1,000 gold™ July 21, 2016

gold performed poorly - like it was just any other ordinary asset - in the 2009 crash, and also back in the 1930's crash. the place to be then was the dollar, which held its value. smart money went to cash and used that cash to buy cheap assets at the bottom.

SHARON July 20, 2016

As we are seeing the EU unraveling, and more international investment is moving to the U.S. stock market and investments, etc. Will this trend increase the value of the U.S. dollar?

David C. July 20, 2016

Sharon, Larry has predicted before that as the rest of the world goes through this turmoil there aren't many places for foreign capital to invest their funds. We may have problems in the US but the US Stock and Bond Markets, and indeed the $, are probably the only 'investments' with sufficient liquidity for foreign capital looking for relative safety; how else to explain the stock market's highs against poor earnings and lower revenues.

Chuck Burton July 20, 2016

The Dow may go to 31,000, but every strong run-up is normally followed by a collapse of some sort. My guess is that the run-up will be caused mostly by helicopter money, and resulting very high inflation, which will ultimately be disastrous for the nation. It will make paupers of most of us, and lead to some sort of totalitarian regime in Washington. I fear that I may live to see it happen, even at 87. Politicians will love it - especially those in Beijing. Birds of a feather, you know.

Todd Selle July 20, 2016

I admire your wisdom and sense of historical perspective, Chuck. Reflecting on Larry's "Dow 31,000" prediction, I'm mindful of Harry Dent's bestseller from the year 2000 titled "Dow 36,000". In the heady froth of the late dot-com boom, this book presented an apparently reasoned argument in support of a stratospheric Dow Jones average - largely based on public recognition that over the long haul, the stock market is safer than bonds. I paid somewhere between $20 and $30 US for that book back then. You can get a copy on Amazon today for one cent, plus a nominal shipping charge. Maybe there's a lesson there. I do not think we'll see Dow 31,000 anytime soon unless some kind of craziness presents itself that impacts a lot more than the stock market.

Dale July 20, 2016

Please clarify your comments regarding the prediction on a major crash in markets and gold before the mad rush to 30,000

Ronald Stolpman July 20, 2016

Larry, for years you have said that there would be a major collapse in the markets before a drive to record highs. What's happened? Have we seen the pullback or is it yet to come?

Rick July 28, 2016

Wondering same thing Ron. If you hear anything back let me know. I'm probably 80% cash waiting c

Chip July 20, 2016

Larry all the money I have is $200,000 .when they market fall what gold stock should I buy to make money so I can invest in them Thanks need help

Vince July 20, 2016

If I GAVE every business and individual an INTEREST FREE $1,000,00 USD loan EVERY MONTH for 8 years with a 10-year repayment plan.... ....by the end of the loan when I wanted ALL the principle back, would I get paid back---meaning ONLY the principle? Let's get real here; it is a world of 'free borrowed money' and debt pyramids. And now, even the minimum payments of PRINCIPLE ONLY now crowd out any growth, and a lion's share of profits, CAPEX, and discretionary savings. Let's go NIRP, and GET PAID to borrow. I like a -45% APR--let's go for it. Let's get some free money to buy all our corporate stock back since we can't make any profits---it still looks great to the public! And the Sphinx will not protect our growing pyramid of paper from falling down when it reaches 'critical mass'. Like Harry Dent, James Dale Davidson, Larry here, and Jim Rickards say----we're in an overloaded sandcastle. Or how the wet snow of 'debt' that the Great Northern RR ignored for too long 'took two passenger trains into a hellish end' when the avalanche of March 1, 1910 roared down on them all at once with only seconds of warning. James J. Hill (GN CEO) should have bought some insurance ($700-trillion of DERIVATIVES)! OOPS! I'd like to know who has what in that arena! Let's INSURE those too... We ain't seen nuthin' yet!

Tom O'Brien July 20, 2016

Larry, There is so much conflicting guidance on the street these days that it makes my head spin. I am out of the miners for a while and waiting for the retracement we all hope is coming. Keeping my powder dry and my fingers crossed...

Peter Rodgers July 20, 2016

Big is not best - check new Zealand out. cheers

donna b July 20, 2016

Larry, I"m curious your thoughts about which candidate would be best for going into 2020/The cycles of War???

John July 20, 2016

Larry, I am old enough to remember 1937, your cutoff date for the 1929 recovery. You always cut off your discussion at that point. Please tell your readers what happened in 1937 and why history will not repeat its self.

Dean July 20, 2016

Larry, thanks for the great info. I would love to know your thoughts on Jim Riccards, $10,000 gold link to the dollar to stabilise it in the future.

Manny July 22, 2016

Right on. I also would like to add that come the end of Summer 16 the markets will collapse so get ready to start shorting. I'm waiting on Gold and Silver and mining stocks to take off after their possible last collapse before jumping to new highs. Be safe.

Raymond July 24, 2016

I'm playing silver long. It's down 1.50. Should I cut the loss and get out? Where do I find your response to my question? Thank you, Raymond