You Haven’t Seen Anything Yet! Plus, Q&A

If you think the recent bounce in the Dow and other world markets means an end to this year’s opening curtain of turbulence, think again and instead, fasten your seatbelts. The fact is you haven’t seen anything, yet.

In the weeks ahead, the Dow Industrials will fall as low as 13,938 … the S&P 500, as low as 1,353.00.

After some pullbacks, the dollar will stair-step higher this year to over 112 on the Dollar Index, roughly a 13% gain. The euro, conversely, will plunge to 0.91, or worse. The pound sterling will crash into the 1.30 level. And even the Chinese yuan will suffer one blow after another.

This will be the year that will make even the most experienced traders’ and hedge fund managers’ heads spin. Huge losses will be taken by the biggest and brightest of them.

Why? Because the second act or the back wall of the financial crisis of 2008/2009 is now coming home to roost, smacking the governments of the world as a result of all their policy mistakes of the last several decades …

Turning markets inside out and upside down, for all of us, in a way that has not been seen since the Great Depression.

This year will make even the most experienced traders’ and hedge fund managers’ heads spin.

Investors are already feeling it. I can tell from my inbox, where loads of email questions are coming in each and every day of the week.

So let me address a few of the most important questions in the rest of today’s column.

Q: Larry, you were right as rain when way back in early 2013 you said the world was going to start to get very nasty again. My question is: Why is this happening?

A: It’s human nature, repeating itself, in great waves, or cycles. All very predictable. All one has to do is study history then measure it using advanced computer techniques and what are called Fourier transformations on data series to extract the cyclic timing.

That’s the scientific end. But the cause is simply human nature. History does indeed repeat itself for the simple reason that, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” (Philosopher George Santayana, December 16, 1863 – September 26, 1952.)

That is true not only of investors, but also of world leaders, who continue to make the same mistakes over and over again.

There are examples everywhere today. Just as in the Great Depression of the 1930s, governments are once again attacking the wealthy, blaming speculators, imposing bans on trading, imposing capital controls, engaging in currency and trade wars.

And more, including becoming more authoritarian, more repressive and finger-pointing.

When you study history and the repetitive nature of the rise and fall of civilizations and monetary systems, it becomes as predictable as the seasons of the year. It’s just the time frames that differ.

Q: Have gold and silver bottomed?

A: I believe there is a good probability that they did bottom in late November/early December last year.

However, we need more confirming evidence. On my systems, that means we need to see gold close above $1,187.80 and silver above $15.46, at a minimum.

Until that happens, unfortunately, gold and silver do remain at risk of another decline to new lows.

Q: You have warned everyone to stay away from government bonds, yet they continue to rise in value. What gives?

A: If you want to be among the sheep being led to the slaughterhouse, be my guest. Buy as many sovereign notes and bonds as you wish.

But be forewarned: Sovereign debt is the world’s largest, most dangerous financial bubble. Tens of trillions of dollars will be wiped out in sovereign debt in the years ahead.

Q: Oil fell into the mid-$20s, just as you forecast last year. Has it bottomed?

A: All my models now agree that oil has bottomed. I would not be surprised at all to see oil suddenly climb back to the $40 level first. Then pull back, and then head to the $50 to $60 area by year-end.

Q: China is really hurting us all now, wouldn’t you say?

A: No. China is NOT the problem. Yes, its stock market took a big hit right from the opening bell this year, but you can’t pin all the global turmoil on China any more than you can blame any single president of the United States for any of our problems.

The governments of Europe, Japan and the U.S. are the real elephants in the room. They are all now starting to fight for their lives because they are all bankrupt and dysfunctional.

Add in the rise in finger-pointing and the related rise in geopolitical problems and you have a total mess on your hands, one which is just getting started.

Q: There are one or two analysts out there predicting the imminent death of the dollar, something to do with the Saudi’s repricing oil in another currency. Your thoughts?

A: Nothing but hogwash, conspiracy theory stuff to scare the heck out of you.

First, why would the Saudis or the Chinese or the Russians for that matter want to kill the dollar when they all have huge dollar reserves? It would be worse than shooting themselves in the foot; they’d be shooting themselves in the head.

Second, what other currency in the world has a deep, liquid enough market to effectively price oil in? The yuan? No way. The ruble? Not going to happen. The riyal? Too tiny a currency market.

Proof: Some of the same analysts predicted the dollar would crash last October/November when the yuan was admitted to the IMF SDRs. And what happened? Exactly the opposite: The yuan crashed and the dollar soared.

My recommendation: Ignore that type of fear-mongering analysis.

Q: Have the grain markets bottomed?

A: No, most are bouncing right now, but they should have one final leg to new lows heading into late March.

Q: What are you personally doing with your money, Larry?

A: Other than my home, car etc., I am 100% in cash with roughly 30% of that dedicated to trading futures and FOREX. I have another 20% ready to go aggressively into precious metals, but not until I give my members the signal first, when it comes.

Best wishes,


P.S. As the Dow doubles, some stocks will see explosive gains of 300%, 400%, 500% and more. To help you get ready to take full advantage of the bull market of a lifetime, I want to send you a complete Dow 31,000 Preparedness Kit — five distinct free reports! The first free report spells out step-by-step what you must do now to position yourself for amazing profits (and protection) over the next two years. Click here to download now!

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 61

I January 27, 2016

I thought you said if gold closed above 1109 it would take off.Gold closed at 1121

$1,000 gold January 27, 2016

the saudis have sold hundreds of billions of equities to meet their budget deficits. amazing the markets have held up as well as they have.

$1,000 gold January 27, 2016

larry has my attention. there's a real possibility of a world depression. i'm on pins and needles waiting for the next shoe to drop. i'll look forward to larry's reports.

UDO January 31, 2016

1000 gold You must be in love with yourself and full of it too . You do bring down this readership for Larry .

Geoffrey Caveney January 27, 2016

Larry, you write here that oil has bottomed and you expect it to climb back to the $40 level, but you also forecast the S&P 500 falling as low as 1,353. Given the way that oil and stocks have traded together since last August, wouldn't an oil price surge prop up stocks, and wouldn't a stock market crash bring down oil? I understand that the oil-stocks correlation can and will break down at some point, but I think they will trade together at least until the S&P 500 hits the 1,680 level. That's the moment when I expect the oil price to find its final bottom.

$1,000 gold January 27, 2016

the thing that worries me most is it seems every oil producing country in the world must pump full tilt because they desperately need the revenues to run their economies. it's a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.

joe January 27, 2016

you said gold would go below 1000. It never did and gold equities have taken off. thanks for the lousy advice!! I could have bought gold equities much cheaper. Not anymore.

David January 27, 2016

Joe, I am also confused but for a different reason. In his January RWR, out on the 15th, The way I read it is that Larry revised his buy price on Gold to any drop back below $1,080, and Silver to below $13.75. Both of these levels seem to have been hit, so to me, he has issued a buy signal on both metals. Anyone who has read/commented on any of my posts know that I only use Larry as a very good Trend/Cycle forecaster for precious metals, not for his stock recommendations, and I usually sell Puts on positions I like such as RGLD and SLW, both "Streamers' and I find this a safer/more conservative way to use the information to create income. I don't believe we can trust the numbers from the government or the FED but I do need to earn income as I am retired. Hope this helps. David in Williamsburg, VA

P Doyle January 27, 2016

Larry is a genius! His talent lies in salesmanship. He has been predicting disaster for a very long time. That is the essence of his sales. He scares you and then he offers to save you. This has been done so many times in history that I am amazed there are so many people that are letting it happen to them instead of studying history. Look up the word "scarecrow" and you will see that this is a politician thing that has been going on in this country since the beginning. I don't know what the market is going to do tomorrow but neither does Larry.

joseph deka January 27, 2016

First of all I do respect your work but do not agree with the way it is presented, as rocket science. You predicted that Gold would bottom end Nov/early Dec after which a "massive" rally would materialize. Yes it moved a bit but no rally. Now you state that there is risk for another leg down. That is not very impressive. Ok, you have no crystal ball but don't bring such advise as written in stone. You state the Yuan went down after it was admitted to the SDR last November. WRONG! They have been approved for POSSIBLE admittance to the SDR basket end of 2016. But as I say, I respect your work but not the conviction advices.

Stevee January 27, 2016

Hear Hear !!!

Ray Yorgensen January 27, 2016

Yes, I think Larry's advice should be questioned based on his "changing his tune" with regard to gold. Does he really expect us to follow his advice now?

Thomas D.-Garcia January 28, 2016

Thank you, Joseph Deka, your work of refining Larry"s efforts is well done!

roland January 27, 2016

larry is Canada the tsx headed much lower.

S Ritchie January 27, 2016

Hi Larry, Any thoughts on uranium?

Harry Ballz January 27, 2016

Larry 50-60$ oil? I thought you said it would go to $200, cause that's what your (Armstrong's war cycles say). Now M.A is saying oil will not being make news highs ever again - does this mean no more $200 oil even with the war cycles?! Can you be more clear on this. Atleast clearer than your multiple gold bottom calls last few years. Thx bud.

sTUTTGARDE January 27, 2016

You got to take whatever MA says with tons of grains of salt, the dude is in a different universe and still stuck in the 80s in his mind.

Richard January 27, 2016

Investing is a guessing game at best. No one actually knows what the future will bring. Just hanging on to cash is not investing. Consumers need to spend to help turn things around. Richard

Chuck Burton January 27, 2016

Gold has been in a down channel for about 2 1/2 years as part of the overall decline since 2011. Currently, it is in a rising cycle, but would need to go well over $1230 to break above the channel. Until it does, the channel is intact, and gold is going nowhere but down. It is a wide channel, however, and gives room for trading the advances and declines within it, if you are so minded

$1,000 gold January 27, 2016

we'll put, chuck. basically, it's been lower highs and lower lows for gold for a long time now. even an amateur like me can see gold needs to make high highs and higher lows.

Terry January 27, 2016

Larry, I think the comments you made about Saudi and the USD are more related that the Saudi Riyal could be depreciated against the dollar due to the ever increasing rate of erosion of their own oil revenues to support their huge social program society. Are you saying that won't happen, as I'm wondering what the impact will be on the currency markets and U.S. markets such as when the Swiss made a similar move many months ago ? Do the Saudi's just sit tight and do nothing while their reserve value balances go in the tank ? Thanks

Tom Skupa January 27, 2016

I was amazed to hear you say that you are 100% in cash....what about us RWR subscribers are still invested as per your recommendations???????

Chuck Burton January 27, 2016

If Larry says he is 100% cash, doesn't that tell you something? He is definitely waiting for better opportunities, no matter what he says in his newsletters or columns. We would be wise to follow his example, except possibly for inverse ETFs or shorts with a small part of our resources.

John S. January 27, 2016

This comment section as it is used by the members is for the most part useless, too many contributors don't make comments they ask questions that our old buddy Larry will not respond to. I still have serious issues as to his claims of vast profits from USVY. He claims profits of 68% and I say we are currently ( as I write this ) below water. Good luck to all.

john January 27, 2016

Larry, some of your "models" need re-modeled. Oil and UVXY continue to offset each other. One goes down just as fast as the other goes up. To make money , one has to go but which one?

Larry T January 27, 2016

He he. Love the bullish postscript which talks about the Dow doubling after opening with the Dow going to 13938 in the weeks ahead.

Carol M January 27, 2016

My sentiments exactly. A bit baffled by this obvious contradiction.

Harry Ballz January 27, 2016

Not only that he says oil is bottomed, gold is likely bottomed, but DOW tanking to 13K Time to put away the super duper proton blasting models and use common sense. Atleast Armstrong says he's still not sure.

Chuck Burton January 27, 2016

If he gives any precise figure, he is definitely full of "it". Nothing in the markets is precise.

Eagle495 January 27, 2016

Larry, The Long Term SELL signal was the 1st Trading Day of January 2016...... Note the HUGE gains in TZA and SQQQ since that day... My question: Why did you not recommend that date and those trades?

Mark January 27, 2016

GREAT " comments " Do we EVER GET SPECIFIC ANSWER'S from the back and forth recommendations from this letter ?

Geo January 27, 2016

More distortions and fear mongering. He said a few years ago, "peak oil is real". Then, oil will bottom in the 90s, then 32, now claims he said mid 20s. 100% cash??? So his subscribers are taking all the risk? FCX down 40%+, great call. Dow will go down to 13,900 then 31,000 is what he's saying. Based on his track record I wouldn't hold my breath.

Walter January 27, 2016

!00% cash? I don't understand. Am I doing wrong positioning myself along the the lines of the RWR portfolio? Help us Larry to understand just what you meant by "100% cash.

David January 27, 2016

Walter, I commented on a similar posting above from Joe at 9:24, as I am also somewhat confused, if you have time to read it. David in Williamsburg, VA January 27, 2016

Folks a couple of points: 1. If you only buy/sell based on Larry's recommendations without doing your own due diligence who is to blame? 2. This is a $99/year service. Do you really expect it to tell you the bottoms and tops of any commodity or stock? No one can do this. 3. As new information is available can Larry not update his calls? Should they be static, or current? 4. This is a macro service not a micro service newsletter despite the specific recommendations. If you use it this way, you can make a lot of money with options. 5. Like any service recommendations you need to use proper position sizing and stop losses. This way the most you can lose on any single purchase is 1% of your total investible monies. (25% of a 4% position) 6. Larry is not allowed to own any of the items he recommends per SEC rules for newsletters like this. So therefore he deals in FOREX and futures. These are things he does not recommend in his service. Thus he does not own his recommendations.

David January 27, 2016

Great points, a lot of people seem to believe that Larry can give precise forecasts, i.e timing and price, and that self discipline and analysis is unnecessary. I am canceling my Flex Alliance membership with Stansberry which has services that cost thousands each a year and they have been consistently wrong for the last three years. Fortunately for me I usually sell deep in the money PUTs on issues I research as I need income, however, I do use Larry;s Trend/Cycles for precious metals where he has been better than most and to me you can't beat the price of RWR. David in Williamsburg, VA

Richard Salyer January 27, 2016

Look - Larry's the best Financial Prognosticator in the business - bar none in my opinion, that I witnessed in over 25 years trying to play this game successfully! Larry looks over 5000 years of data, in various cycles including War Cycles and comes up with his timing - which is pretty damn accurate to say the least. Don't expect him to tell you exactly which investment vehicle and what EFT to invest in and the exact minute, that's up to you Stupid! You don't have any skin in the game and any investment in looking for the exact vehicles - then you don't deserve to prosper. Larry's the Champ, and he shouldn't waste his time answering just drivel and specific investment questions. If you're smart enough you'll "learn from him", and take that knowledge and find even better way's to prosper from his advice. He gives out vanilla advice because that down the middle of all of those reading him. Never in the last 75 years in the Markets has someone like him come around; stop, listen, learn and expand your knowledge and do the hard homework in the individual investment vehicles, then make your plunge. You will be successful then. Mr. Salyer

sTUTTGARDE January 27, 2016

Exactly. So these bitchers and complainers go get a job or something, OK? You don't like Latty's advice then don't read him. Move on now bitchers, and stop complaining.

Heath January 27, 2016

Prognosticator - did you mean pretender?

andre January 27, 2016

too manny generalities,charts showing stock market going down,talking big pictures and generalities about markets correcting,but no recommendatio. larry i was short 400 on dxd and spxs missed to make 2,800$sold for a break even. missed the elephant in the room,all hat no cattle forget about another course and bla-bla.

Thomas Kim January 27, 2016

Hi Larry, thanks for your guidance. Could someone from your staff send me the latest graph of gold cycle.a nod silver. Thx

ted January 27, 2016

Folks. Larry said most resource stocks would bottom and most have around 1/18. I am up 43% on vnrap, 27% on vnrbp, oil tanker tooprb 24%, but only up 1.74% on gld. The first three stocks also pays a dividend of 40%+ . Even cnq went from $14.60 to $19.61 as of today"s close and it pays 3% dividend. Using Larry's chart along with two others, expect gold to form a low about mid February then up to March 20, then sell off big to about October. Good luck investing!

Denis January 27, 2016

Larry. I follow without fail your every word.Your words of wisdom,and downright commonsense are right up my street. I await your updates.Keep up your good work.

Don January 28, 2016

I too follow Larry's guidance in both Real Wealth and Supercycle Trader and I am shocked that he personally has all his portfolio in cash! He has no skin in the game he is recommending for us, Why?

Alwie January 27, 2016

Larry is right as rain. HAHAHAHAHA...... I really love this phrase!

TED NOVAK January 27, 2016

Larry, why on one hand you say the dow will fall to 14000 and s@p to 1338, then say the dow will soar to 31000. what gives,i am confused, i would appreciate an answer. thank you TED

UDO January 31, 2016

Ted Larry says that because Marty A. says that and that means all looks so bearish and might go to 14,000 and then a Slingshot could happen and bring it to new highs but it is very questionable .

UDO February 3, 2016

TED Soar to 31,000 was only said ( by .Armstrong ) in case the markets REALLY drop drasticly to 13,000 or lower and THEN do a slingshot move . But it might NOT work - watch out.

Bill January 28, 2016

Yea, his statement that he is 100% in cash does make one wonder about his convictions to his own recommendations. On the other hand, in order to sell newsletters, you usually have to make reco's as telling his readers to be 100% cash and why would take about two paragraphs and readers would wonder what they are getting for their money? So I understand why there are recommendations made. As far as Larry saying that the Dow will fall and then rise to 31,000, he has stated in several newsletters that the world will spin out of control and all markets will plunge, and when that happens people from other nations will pull money out of their own country and put it in what is perceived to be the most stable and "safe" market which happens to be the U.S. causing the U.S. markets to rise greatly. I'm not saying that I necessarily agree with his theory, but he has been consistent in calling for all markets to plunge, and then for the U.S stock market to soar.

Thomas Kim January 28, 2016

Hi Larry, thanks for your guidance. Could someone from your staff send me the latest graph of gold cycle, I'm a bit confused Thx

UDO January 31, 2016

Thomas , you are asking Larry or his staff to send you the latest graph of the gold cycle ? LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL You must be new . You will stay confused for a long time !!!

$1,000 gold January 28, 2016

Larry's bottom is so clean he can snort his coke off it

$1,000 gold January 28, 2016

larry can see by your i.p. address that $1,000 gold did not write this. i doubt if anyone else cares. it's just a blog.

$1,000 gold January 28, 2016

how old are you, anyway? i get the impression you're a juvenile. i'll just assume that.

$1,000 gold January 28, 2016

i love talking with myself. how old am i anyway

$1,000 gold January 30, 2016

you are many people. i know them all. how do i do that?

Ian Leonard January 29, 2016

Certainly a very mixed set of views and comments but at least I am impressed by the fact they appear to all be displayed despite their content. Personally I consider Larry a gifted and committed talent in his own field and wish I had followed his moves more closely myself.

Dave January 29, 2016

What happened to your China silk road campaign, you nearly had me convinced. What happened with your investments that you said you were going to or had made?

bi63 January 30, 2016

Larry is a fraud, he only copies what Martin Armstrong says. Of course Armstrong always has 2 scenarios going, so it's no surprise you'd see Larry changing his tunes so often. First 2017 was going to be Dow 31,000, but now it's 2020. He dares to charge people $5K per year for copying somebody else's work, what a fraud !

UDO February 1, 2016

bi63 have you noticed how incorrect Armstrong can be with his gold forecast ? " Gold to $ 914 " he wrote that since May 2014 . No wonder Larry gets it wrong too when he copies him . For years I checked Armstrong gold numbers , wrote him about it and all he does is writes about the crazy gold bugs who will not give up touting in gold's horn how high gold will go . Really disappointed about that with Armstrong . But his oil forecast and where the DOW is going is excellent as long as you read ALL of his stuff which can change like the wind .

J Steve January 30, 2016

Just because two smart men have the same opinion doesn't mean that one is copying the other. Oh, and buy the way Larry can not recommend anything that he is personally invested in. Its against the law. It has to be tough recommending something you believe is a great deal, right now, knowing it means you can't participate yourself.