Hate To Say I Told You So!

Larry Edelson

I can’t tell you the complaints I’ve received over roughly the last 14 months, when I started warning everyone that a stock market correction was coming. Possibly a big one.

They said I was nuts. That I was a stopped clock. After all, the major indices such as the Dow Industrials and the Nasdaq were making one new high after another.

I even told investors who were interested in dividend income to stay out, they’d lose more than they could possibly earn in dividends or royalties when the principal of their investments would plunge.

But I stood my ground, backed my time-tested models. And the facts now are this …

A. Even before the stock market started to plunge last week, more than 67 percent of all publicly traded U.S. stocks were down at least 10 percent.

B. Now that the market is falling, those figures are even greater. 70 percent of publicly traded stocks in the S&P 500 are now down at least 10 percent.

C. And fully 31 percent are now down at least 20 percent!

D. Globally, more than $2.5 trillion has been wiped off of stock values in the past year!

Thing is, most investors who didn’t listen to me, won’t listen to me when I scream that the bottom is in and that the Dow Industrials are headed to well over 31,000 over the next few years.

And that Asian markets, as ugly as they seem right now, will do even better, with China probably quintupling.

Instead, they will be panicking near the lows, claiming it’s the end of the world. That the Dow is going to below 5,000 or some ridiculous number. That China and Asia are going to crash and burn. That the only safe place to be is in U.S. Treasuries.

And guess what? Those investors will …

A. Miss out on the biggest stock market gains, ever. And …

B. They will lose almost every penny they invest in U.S. or European sovereign bonds.

Let me give you perhaps the two most important insights you could ever have on how markets work. Insights that you only get from studying thousands of years of data every which way you can, and from being a professional trader yourself.

First, the majority of investors lose money. They are caught on the wrong side of the markets, especially at extreme highs and lows.

Second, pullbacks, crashes, mini-panics, bear market rallies in bear markets, etc. — all create the energy needed for the major underlying trend to finally reemerge.

In other words, it’s the crashes, like we are seeing now in stocks, that pave the way for the next bull run higher.

It’s the way the markets move, like a giant pendulum, swinging from one side to the other, from fear to greed and back again.

Let’s say, for instance, that the swing of the pendulum to the right is a bull market. How can it possibly swing to the right unless it first swings to the left?!

And on the flip side, let’s say the pendulum’s swing to the left is a bear market? Well, how can it possibly swing to the left if it hasn’t already swung to the right?

Get the picture? That is precisely how markets work. To get those swings, the majority of investors must, by definition, get trapped, bailing out precisely at the wrong time.

Shorts bail out at tops; longs bail out at bottoms.

And only the savvy know when to get out and back in at the right times!

That’s also why I couldn’t be happier about what’s happening in stocks now. Not only because I’ve been right of course, but far more importantly …

It’s setting up that inevitable swing back to fear, which will create the energy for the pendulum to swing back in the other direction, to the right, and help fulfill my long-term forecast, that the Dow is headed to 31,000+ over the next two years.

Problem is, as I said before, very few investors, except those who subscribe to my Real Wealth Report and my Supercycle Trader, will profit from it.

I’m not boasting mind you, I am just telling you like it is. Even if you’re not a member of my services and never become a member, please at least take the lessons I try to give you in these columns seriously; they will help you to both avoid losses and make more money to boot.

So what now for the stock market? Will it continue to crash? If so, where might it stop?

First, according to my models, the correction is not yet over. We should see a bounce back develop this week, if it hasn’t already done so by the time you read this column. But that’s all it will be, a bounce.

Second, major support for the Dow Industrials, the index most widely watched, comes in at the 15,672 level. If that gives way, the Dow will likely fall much further, to about 13,937.

Third, the correction, or crash, or whatever you want to call it, should be over by October, and may even come to an end this month, in a normal three-month correction.

I won’t be able to determine that until we see how the markets close out the month, on the last day of trading on Monday, Aug. 31.

At that time, I’ll be able to run my studies and update my forecasts. Month-end closings are more important than weekly closings, which in turn, are more important than daily closings.

As to gold; no it has not bottomed. All you are seeing is a bear market bounce. That too will end soon and give way to a renewed decline that will take gold below $1,000.

Best wishes and stay tuned …

Larry

Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 59

Jon August 26, 2015

Right all along.. Larry u have been bearish since dow was at 10.5k preaching 9k was coming. Not 14 months of being wrong more like 40. Faber and u can say the same thing now that u were right. Congrats. I'll start telling everyone it's gonna go up. I'll be right too. Why don't u just say follow Armstrongs advice.. It seems your just waiting for him to post then u pretty much copy and past and change Dow figures by a hundred or two so it looks original. Your a scam.

Heidi August 27, 2015

Jon if Larry does what you suggested - at least he will be darn close what really happens after being incorrect for so long .

Peter August 27, 2015

We get it Jon... Your life sucks and its everybody`s fault but your`s...

dog August 27, 2015

right on, peter. this stuff is really getting old heidi.

Puunjabi Kahkmeede August 31, 2015

If I don't have to be a Sasquatch then I would imagine they have encounters with the disguise for all those supplements and roasted goat testicles or any other internet stash to see if they didn't want me to believe that a schizophrenic like the original did not only go through the bathroom and roasted goat testicles were delicious!

Robert P August 26, 2015

As of Monday, 8/24/15: IT’S TIME NOW TO BUY STOCKS!!! Over the years, I’ve noticed that anytime the DJIA closes down 200 pts or more for 3 consecutive days, and especially when it goes sizzling down on the 3rd day and then reverses course that day, it’s time to get into the market! Now, yesterday was unusual: It went up tremendously, as I expected, but then it closed down over 200 pts.! ...making a FOURTH day of over 200 pts. loss!! BUT if it does as it has in the past, it will at least go back up to the level where it started breaking down, and I wouldn't be surprised for it to set new highs. Dow 31,000 as these fellows have predicted…? Dunno…jury’s still out on that one. BUT, UPRO and/or UDOW for a trade….ABSOLUTELY!!!

Peter August 27, 2015

Good call :)

Robert P August 26, 2015

Gold and gold miners can’t seem to get out of their own way!! A few weeks ago, when the RSI reached such low levels on GDX, I had hopes for it to go up…with seasonality considered and especially with the dollar backing off too…but now look at it!! Disappointing! Disgusting! GLD, GDX, DGP, NUGT, JNUG...all my favorite pro-gold plays...may go up eventually, but this latest action sure has them backing down for now! ........??? I honestly thought they'd go up some before sizzling down to Larry's predicted lows, but I don't know now..???

$1,000 gold August 26, 2015

good job, larry. best call of the year!

$1,000 gold August 26, 2015

corrections usually last a few months, and then it's on to new highs. one more good up wave left that should last at least a couple years and then ending in a recession.

$1,000 gold August 26, 2015

gold is toast.

were August 26, 2015

Well, "Stopped-Clock" Larry can now say he was right all along. He'll milk it for all he's worth. The real test will be to see if he'll get the turn around correct. Lots of us remember the last time where he stayed out of the massive gold/silver bull market and kept calling for a deeper correction all the way up. Keep it up, Larry. Your charts are a work of art - as long as you hang them upside down.

BFD August 26, 2015

were - You and Jon got it right. And, Larry is a dangerous man with regard to other people's money. The "Larry Worshippers" just don't seem to have any recall at all of the terrible calls he has made. Sure he gets it right occasionally, but it's more like 80/20 against. Is that someone's advice that you want to follow? No way!

uno August 26, 2015

heide might want to get in on this circle jerk too.

elmer August 26, 2015

bfd and heide remind me of two dogs sniffing each others butt holes.

fudd August 26, 2015

they are a little chummy, aren't they.

bob August 26, 2015

The bottom is so close i can taste it??? remember that call?? i remember his dow 9000 in 2010 and his the US dollar will crash before 2015 lol

John A August 26, 2015

I remember I remember. The Dow must fall below 9000 back in 2010 was something else. I was a member then and month after month after month the same thing, Dow will fall below 9000, along with many many awful portfolio busting advise!!!

dog August 27, 2015

ya, we know bob ... or is it manny, heide, bfd? same guy, different name.

Peter August 26, 2015

Nobody get the market right 100% of the time. And yes i lost money when gold rallied, but you dont see me bitch about it do you! If you dont like Larry`s advise dont troll about it. Just take youre ball and go play somewhere else. Some people here seemes to think they own this forum, and troll 24/7. Grow up! Jesus, get a F### life! You think your hammering Larry, but you end up makeing an ass out of your self! Go play somewhere else! Peter Norway

BFD August 26, 2015

You might consider taking your own advice for the reading of comments!

Peter August 27, 2015

BFD Yeah that kind of explains it.. You wear a helmet to school don`t you...

fudd August 27, 2015

sorry to say, bfd, but i agree with peter.

dog August 27, 2015

how much do we have to pay you to go away, bfd. peter is right, i'm sick of hearing about it over and over again. take your loser friends with you too.

mephisto August 27, 2015

What is fun is kicking over the Larry-worshipper ant nest and watch them come screaming and ranting to his defense.

BFD August 27, 2015

This is just too funny for words! I'm cancelling the comedy channel on cable . . . Where else can you get these kind of laughs?

dog August 28, 2015

you have it backwards. it's not these people are larry worshipers. they're tired of hearing the larry bashing from you.

dog August 28, 2015

we all lose money in the market. i would pay for an education in how not to lose money in the market - so when you lose money in the market, you're paying to learn. it's only money, we can always make more.

Mephisto August 28, 2015

bfd really knows how to beat a dead horse to death again. this website is like yogi said, déjà vu all over again. déjà vu all over again. déjà vu all over again. déjà vu all over again. déjà vu all over again.

Peter September 1, 2015

Right on!!

Georgie August 27, 2015

I think WERE and Heidi are OK WHY ? They have dispensed some solid advice in the past In the end, what do we all want YES MORE MONEY I still need help with my meager retirement account. It needs a big boost... Georgie

Peter August 28, 2015

What stole money right out of my pocket, was going for "the big wins" and speculative trading. Play it safe. - Save 10% a mnd. - Nov til April is known to be the strongest mnd of the year and May til Okt the weakest. Trading in the stronger mnd will give you a good chance of making money, and you can secure your profit with a put option or a put spread going in to the weaker mnd`s. If you don`t profit from Larrys advice, try somewhere else. Clive maund predicted this "crash" as well, and is getting his readers ready for phase 2 of the correction right now. Good luck Peter

Heidi August 28, 2015

Gorgie if it's gold/silver stocks you want / need your time will come late Oct / Nov. 2015 and then again Mar./April 2016 . Whatever prices you see now take 30 % to 35 % off for the next buying opportunity - as an ex-sample take Paas @ $ 5.85 right now - take 30 % off = $ 4.10 . Don't get too greedy !

dog August 28, 2015

what advice did were dispense? i missed it. can you repeat it? i'd like to hear it.

dog August 28, 2015

what advice did were dispense, georgie? i missed it. can you repeat it? i’d like to hear it.

dog August 28, 2015

heide, so 30% off $1,100 equals $800. are you saying gold will be $800 this oct/nov?

Mephisto August 29, 2015

good question. can you do the math on this for us heidi? what amount are you talking about? what price do you see gold oct/nov?

Puunjabi Kahkmeede August 31, 2015

If Bigfoot is just a minute later you can see if we are not allowed to make contact with the alien space beings who are happy to see if you are not allowed to make sure that you get out of this universe. It's to see if Sasquatch can speak for the great and slippery alien space beings.

Heidi September 1, 2015

dog - the 30% was applied to miners which of course could now turn into 40%with markets we have right now . For my personal use the miners are most important to me - not so much the gold price but the 800 - 850 could also be a great fit . I gave an ex-sample with PAAS . If it hits $ 4 I would grab it but it also can hit $ 3.50 but that's why I said DON"T BE GREEDY . Remember how fast the miners bounced back in 2008 / 2009 ? You will NEVER get THE low - NEVER . Remember that . And every miner plays out differently . Some say it's great to watch AEM - a leader . If you see it at $ 18 it's a bargain .

Georgie August 28, 2015

Goodie Heide, I will keep my eyes peeled here for what to buy ... thx Oh my, Peter. .. this clive person is a mystery to me... .I wonder what this phase 2 thing means to me...is this another big deal like 2007...scares the %$#*!$ out of me Mr doggy......Well you can go back to the older posts and read about what were said.....that seems pretty easy........ Georgie

dog August 29, 2015

na, no need to listen to you.

Mephisto August 29, 2015

déjà vu all over again, georgie. you sound like bdf.

Peter September 1, 2015

Hi Georgie we are down 3% to day on the S&P iam still sitting on my 215 jan 16 puts :D Yesterday i bought TZA call spreads to play this down trend. So fare so good, Clive maund is one i use to subscribe to earlier, but he allso missed out on gold rallying. But he was right on this market correction. He has predicted S&P 500 down to 1840-1820. Time will show

Tom August 29, 2015

Larry, you're "I told you so" comment is laughable. Yeah, the much-anticipated correction finally hit the Dow, only to be followed by a 1,000 point gain. While you're losing your you-know-what in commodities and who knows what, those of us invested in equities have realized impressive gains since 2009. Tell me, what particular investment that you've recommended has done better than, say, an index fund since 2009? Bueller?

Don August 29, 2015

I have been following these guys for many years, over fifteen. Safe money report, Real wealth, watched videos , etc. nothing but hype, and at times rewriting their.history. Road to Hell, remember? Now Dow to 31k. Buy this gold stock at four dollars, now two. No matter what happens they will be right in the future with the retrospectoscope with this flipping It is a game for your money. Follow Armstrong? I think I did see Larry in the front seat. Letting my subscriptions expire.....

Timothy August 29, 2015

I've followed Larry for 8 years and have stayed tune to his recommendations and haven't lost money and made a killing with his reco's.just this last week. M. Armstrong is good, and buds with Larry, though I think Larry is more precise and much more scientific. Not a 'worshiper' just uncommon wisdom person by lesson learning, by God's grace.Did you follow Larry's reco's this week? If you did, you'd be happy. Seems like you didn't...???

Don August 29, 2015

Glad you made a "killing". A broken clock is correct twice a day. Look long term. How is that safe money 100k investment doing over the years corrected for reasonable inflation? How's that gold stock? Road to Hell? Two handed economist.

mephisto August 31, 2015

You are a liar. Larry's recommendations have all lost money and he has provided no profitable timing signals.

Timothy August 29, 2015

That's exactly the point of the Supercycles Don. My money is doing fine, gold included, and it will do tremendously better over the next 3-5 years with the Supercycle Trader. Larry is just one source I use to put all of these pieces together. I think Larry made it clear in this article. This is a particular point in time, so now it's time. The sell stops over the past years have protected big losses. You sound like you have really been burned my friend. Sorry about that. I used to be an athlete and now can barely walk and still having major surgeries from a 70mph accident over 3 years ago and have tremendous permanent pain. I understand very well disappointment. I wish you best Don! God bless!

Don August 29, 2015

Fortunately I own several homes in the States and abroad. Have been retired from age 50 now assisting and guiding young enterprises . Keep your faith. It worked just great for your finances. I get some of my entertainment watching these showman.

Timothy August 29, 2015

Agreed, Don. Showmen, yes, am entertained by their salesmanship as well, though now is also a time to get serious about how to obtain liquid assets, how to protect them, and what else to do with them....there are many factors configuring that will turn all upside down, not just financially, worldwide over the next 12-36 months, there will be no looking back... I had properties in Costa Rica, through series of events had to liquidate and focus on family closer to home. Glad you help to mentor and get start ups going with aspiring bright or newly active investors, that's a great thing!

David August 29, 2015

I wish I had been a bit quicker to act on the UVXY. A great move, I also saved some gains by getting out of some gold shorts. Thanks Larry.

Robert P August 30, 2015

David: Thank you for statement above about UVXY...I'd not seen that etf before. Now that UVXY is up and, I suppose, likely to go back down, is there an etf that is opposite of it? I've looked for it, but can't seem to find anything. Thanks

were August 31, 2015

If you're going to play the UVXY/XIV waves, you're going to need a lot more than "I suppose" as your signals. If you don't time it just right you could lose 50% or more really quickly. Or you could triple your money like I did last week.

Robert P August 31, 2015

Were, thanks...yes, you are right! Thing is, I've already lost!! You remember the "geopolitical tensions" we faced about a year or two ago, and these "gurus" couldn't talk enough about all that? ...and these tensions were supposed to send gold soaring as a safe-haven play, since bonds didn't really fit that bill anymore? I bought into that story line. BUT, it didn't turn out that way. Now, sadly, if I lose the remainder, I will not have really lost that much......... It seems the best I can hope for is to catch SOMETHING for a big win....seeing that in black and white as I write this...looks like a recipe for defeat, huh? Dunno what else to do..... Nevertheless, many thanks, were. You are very right.

Puunjabi Kahkmeede August 31, 2015

Please come join us for a delicious meal of raw camel dongs and roasted goat testicles!

Puunjabi Kahkmeede August 31, 2015

I took my medications so that I may speak to the Dragon on the internet so I can inform you that Bigfoot is going to reveal itself to the human race soon. Bigfoot is a hybrid creation of the interdimensional space creatures who want us to cooperate with Bigfoot when he reveals himself for all humans to see. Bigfoot has a a lot to teach us about ourselves and is in hiding until the moment is right. Bigfoot speaks to us in our dreams but when we wake up we don't remember. We did not evolve from Bigfoot. Bigfoot evolved from us!

Ursula September 1, 2015

So what is happening with Crud Oil and Gold at the moment? How far up will Oil go and Gold is it up or down now?

Marcos Larochelle September 2, 2015

Hate to say I told you so. Alright. Come on. I do believe I told you so.Now it's all out and you knew, 'Cause I wanted to.Turn my back on the rot that's been planning the plot because I'm gonna.