A Bottom Yet? Not Even Close

Larry Edelson

Is it over? Will the stock market now make a beeline back to the highs, then on to new record highs?

Not yet! The long-awaited correction, according to my models, is far from over. Yes, we may see the dust settle for a few more days. We may even see more strong spikes higher.

But my work tells me there is much danger on the horizon, and the Dow Industrials have not yet bottomed. Not even close. Nor have the other major indices such as the Dow Transports, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq.

Nor has Europe bottomed. Or Asia.

So don’t be deceived if you see some rallies. Don’t let your stockbroker load you up on stocks, of any kind.

Instead, mark my words: The time to buy is not yet here. In the weeks ahead, you will see …

 The Dow Industrials plummet as low as 13,937

 The NASDAQ as low as 3,162

 The S&P 500 as low as 1,710

Click image for larger view

How sure am I? In this business, it’s a rare exception when someone can be 100% sure.

But if I had to rate the odds of new lows ahead for stocks, I’d say they’re better than 90%.

FIRST, is this cycle forecast chart for the Dow Industrials. It’s the type of cycle forecast I frequently show members of my Supercycle Trader, who actively speculate in the markets per my specifically chosen and timed recommendations.

And who also just bagged a sweet 121% gain on a bearish position in stocks, more than doubling their money, in just one week!

As you can see from this chart, which is based on billions of calculations of stock market data via an artificial intelligence model or neural net …

After a brief stabilizing period and bounce (red line) into the middle of this month, the stock market is likely to nosedive into the third week of October.

That low can come in as low as 13,937 in the Dow.

SECOND, is Europe. My models show similar patterns for virtually all stock markets in Europe. Some stabilization and a possible bounce into the middle of this month, then a collapse.

Moreover, Europe’s economic data is far worse than the lackluster data on the U.S. economy. Deflation is worsening in Europe. Industrial production is sliding. Consumer confidence is near lows.

And all the policies that have made Europe such a basket case in the first place — including a hair brained single currency experiment — continue to squeeze the European Union as if it were in a vice with a one way screw that can only be further tightened by insane leaders.

THIRD, is Asia. Long-term, Asia, including China, is fine. But my work tells me the markets there too have not yet bottomed. But keep an eye on them, for when they do bottom — especially China — they will likely bottom ahead of Western markets.

Why? Because in a very real sense today, Asia — especially China — leads the world.

They used to say when the U.S. sneezed, the rest of the world caught a cold. Now it’s the other way around: When China sneezes, the rest of the world gets pneumonia.

There are many more reasons why I believe stock markets have not yet bottomed.

So here’s what I strongly suggest:

A. If you own any stocks, with the exception of specifically selected ones you plan to own longer-term, just get out. If you cannot get out, then hedge your holdings via an inverse ETF such as the ProShares Short Dow30, symbol DOG.

B. Do not — I repeat — do not go bottom fishing. In any sector. It makes no sense to bottom fish stocks that have already lost, say 30% or more, when they can easily lose another 30% or more.

Instead …

C. Build your cash so that you can deploy it at the right time, near or at the bottom of the correction …

Fully keeping in mind that the long-term bull market in stocks is still intact — and that over the next couple of years the Dow Industrials can easily stage a slingshot move back up and more than double to over 31,000. Ditto for other major U.S. broad market indices.

And all on the backbone of frightened capital rushing out of the collapsing  cancerous debts of the doomed-to-fail Western socialist-style economies of Europe and Japan.

Washington will collapse too, but not for a couple of years. So make hay of it while you can, just like my Supercycle Trader members are starting to do.

Best wishes,


Larry Edelson, one of the world’s foremost experts on gold and precious metals, is the editor of Real Wealth Report and Supercycle Trader. Larry has called the ups and downs in the gold market time and again. As a result, he is often called upon by the media for his investing views. Larry has been featured on Bloomberg, Reuters and CNBC as well as The New York Times and New York Sun.

Comments 50

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

larry's charts shows the bottom may not in yet, but new highs by year's end. so this correction is just a pause or reset before we go higher.

were September 2, 2015

How embarrassing for Larry. He publishes a chart showing exactly how inaccurate his system is. Examine the blue section which shows past performance. Granted his cycle line does not show absolute price valuation - it's not really meant to. It's supposed to show timing of the tops and lows and relative strength of cycle. But look - the tops and bottoms of the past don't even match up with what happened. How accurate do you think that line will be to predict the future? He did publish another one of these chart types back in March. Look at that and you have your answer.

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

so basically, were, you're still sticking with your call that the highs are in for the year?

were September 2, 2015

Wow. So not the point.

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

the point is, you're just trying to make larry look bad. your call is that the highs are in for the year. larry is calling for new highs by year's end. my point is, why all the larry bashing when you yourself won't stand by your call?

Peter September 2, 2015

$1,000 gold Don`t wast you`re time :) As the saying goes " You can`t argue with stupid"...

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

ya know, peter, i didn't see one of the larry bashers make the call on the correction, which was the most important call of the year. i'm not criticizing were, i just don't see where he gets off on criticizing larry. from what i've seen, none of the larry bashers have any room to talk.

were September 2, 2015

The point is - explain the blue section of Larry's chart. Tell us what it shows and how you could make money with it. Quit confusing the issue and see if you can defend Larry.

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

na, i don't need to see the blue section of the chart. i'm not here to defend larry, nor am i here to debate you, were. if you've got a boner with larry take it up with him. whatever your beef with larry is is old news. déjà vu all over again. give us something good for a change, like if you think larry is wrong then offer a better scenario. let's hear it.

John T September 3, 2015

were doesn't have to make Larry look bad, he does it all by himself.

Marky September 2, 2015

How many years has Larry kept investors out of the market waiting for this DOW correction?? Now it's finally here and since he is saying it's going lower I think it's time to buy. Besides isn't this the same as Armstrong's forecast? Panic Cycle for Oct 19?

John T September 2, 2015

another week and nothing about the gold market.

Robert P September 2, 2015

So, let's say for the moment that Larry's right.....what will cause the mid-Sept. fall?? ...Yellen's raising of interest rates? ...the introduction of IMF's new world currency, and move away from the US $.....?? I'm hearing alot of different stuff....

Manny September 2, 2015

Nada on Gold, Silver, miners... So close I can taste it

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

déjà vu all over again.

Robert P September 2, 2015

Who's the dog, and who's the tail.....and which one's doing the wagging these days? Can't help but agree with Larry on that one...seems that the U.S. is following China's markets now. But is this just all about China?? Or are they just convenient for us to blame??

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

china is headed for recession, just like we were in 2009. recessions usually last a year or two. so in the long term, this means even cheaper stuff for us at walmart. now tell me, how can that hurt our economy here in the usa???

Robert P September 2, 2015

I guess it really matters not about what might be the catalyst... We're coming here to find trading and/or investment ideas to make money. I'm kinda agreeing with Marky "...since he is saying it’s going lower I think it’s time to buy." Usually, when they make a new prediction, there's profit to be made in immediately doing exactly the opposite! (I'm considering Larry's "do not go bottom fishing" here to be a new prediction.)

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

lower lows and higher highs by year's end. we're going to hold you to that larry. i think it's the most likely scenario too and a great buying op.

august September 5, 2015

larry never said anything about higher highs by years end---

mephisto September 7, 2015

Don't bother.... $1000 gold doesn't know how to read a chart.

$1,000 gold September 8, 2015

you're right, i read the chart wrong. i'm an idiot. don't listen to me.

mike hunt September 2, 2015

Larry never mentions gold now as basically he has not got a clue what its going to do he said it would bottom in May then October whats next January 2016 i guess eventually he will get it right then say he warned of this. Well hey guess what ill say gold will go to $10000 with dips on the way sometime in the future. you see anyone can do this. :)

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

nothing's really changed with gold, until we see a recession. i'm going to really stick my neck out here and put my reputation on the line, but i'd say we're headed for $1,000 gold or lower. oh, wait, i've been saying that for at least a couple years now. gold is toast. when these bubble pop, they usually go all the way to a bottom. a recession will likely cause a nice big fat bounce well over where we are now, and then it goes on the shelf and collects dust for decades.

mephisto September 2, 2015

wish there was a jettison button for verbal diarrhea $1000 gold. shut up already.

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

you're right, mehisto, it's all been diarrhea so far. that's my point, buddy. so let's get to the real poop.

Robert P September 2, 2015

Were, from a few days ago: "If you’re going to play the UVXY/XIV waves, you’re going to need a lot more than “I suppose” as your signals. If you don’t time it just right you could lose 50% or more really quickly. Or you could triple your money like I did last week." Many thanks for the good advice....so what signals are you using? ...and what are the signals saying now?? ...can't help but be curious...

$1,000 gold September 2, 2015

here's what important. crude is dirt cheap. crude is going to stay dirt cheap. for decades we've been at the mercy of foreign oil producers who stick a straw in the ground and sell it to us for outrageous prices. no more. fracking changes everything. anytime anybody wants oil it's cheap and abundant. i cannot emphasize enough how bullish this is for stocks; how bullish this is for america. forget everything you've read heretofore, it's all diarrhea - china, uvxy, correction, gold, highs, lows, blue charts, end of year, it's all diarrhea. the real poop is, we're in a bull market and the best is yet to come. if ever there was a time to ignore the diarrhea and buy & hold the s&p for the long haul - this is it. i'll bet not one of you loudmouths has the courage to go all in and never will. adios amigos.

Marky September 3, 2015

Not only is oil going to be cheap for decades, in addition we'll start to witness the electric car or alternative engine evolution putting even more pressure on oil - good times ahead.

John T September 3, 2015

oil will not stay dirt cheap. As price declines, consumption increases, and then so does the price. We are a consuming society, not a producing one. The point is it is all about CHINA and not about the usa anymore. We are not in a bull market, if we were, last week would not have happened. Where are the JOBS.

Heidi September 3, 2015

John T I have oil down to $ 15 by M. Armstrong - nothing about wars but lots about deflation . Also because of deflation gold will only go up to $ 5000 by 2032 - nothing like $ 8000 - $ 10,000 or higher . Every gold bug will lose their shirt waiting for bigger numbers than $ 5000 but that's why we have markets to accomplished that , right ? lol

John T September 3, 2015

Heidi - All I meant to say was nothing stays high or low, it creates a cycle, which is over and over again. If the price is too high, then we make more efficient cars, which reduces demand, which reduces supply and then reduces prices, which increase demand, which increases prices, etc.,

Bubba gump September 7, 2015

Haha! You think cheap oilis good? You been watchin obama and that propaganda news like fox, msnbc and cnn too much. If cheap oil is good, why is venezuela, brazil, saudi arabia, russia, etc going down the toilet? And shale oil in the usa costs at least 50 usd to get out of the ground. You probably think a high usd is good for the world too, huh? Lmfao! Question: if everything costs dollars, and other countries cant print dollars, what happens?

$1,000 gold September 7, 2015

expensive oil always puts us in recession, bubba.

$1,000 gold September 7, 2015

cheap oil always puts opec in recession, bubba.

$1,000 gold September 8, 2015

expensive oil and you'll stay home and watch tv, bubba. cheap oil and you'll drive around, spend money and have a good time, which is good for the economy. you can't figure that out, bubba?

Robert P September 3, 2015

Right on John T!!! "Oil will not stay dirt cheap." The oil producers want the idea of perfecting electric cars to be forgotten...so the current move in oil prices is a good way to accomplish that. BUT, look what happened in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Oil was cheap for awhile, but when war broke out, especially in the Mid-East, it started sky-rocketing!! (Remember Larry's war cycles?) History shows that the only way to resolve a big economic mess, such as the entire world is in now, is by war.

$1,000 gold September 3, 2015

oil will stay in this $2/gal range we're in now for the foreseeable future. $100/bbl oil is so far off it's not even on the radar. the rest of the world hasn't even begun to frack yet and the whole planet has more easy to reach oil now than the saudis could ever dream about. there's no greater stimulus than cheap oil, and no greater buzzkill than expensive oil. the frackers will keep a lid on prices like they're doing now. don't let the diarrhea talk you out of participating in this secular bull. larry edelson says the bottom of this correction is not in yet. i hope he's right. it will take every ounce of courage i have but i will go all in before it's over.

William B September 6, 2015

Well the main consideration with fracking is its cost ..... $50 a barrel will drive it out of business. then there is the water pollution and other environmental factors which will impact on its bottom line whatever anyone might believe about its benign safety and the production life of wells is rather short compared to Middle East wells - to say the least. Nobody in the industry expects fracking to overtake the major on shore producers on cost. So Houston we got a problem.

$1,000 gold September 7, 2015

we have dirt cheap oil and rock bottom interest rates. this will last several years. have you ever passed up an opportunity and regretted it? the party is on. don't miss it.

Rc September 5, 2015

Does anyone know about this new super cycle service Larry is hocking. Is it the gold and silver trader service brought back to life under a different name ???

Pete September 5, 2015

Going forward beyond Oct I am with you all the way,regardless of the criticism, but as suggested in earlier months I not finding finding your comments on the direction of gold miners ??

Ken Custard September 6, 2015

What happened to prediction of $5000 or even $3000 gold by 2015-2016??? And originally I signed up for the info that now he's asking more money for the Super deal. Isn't he making money hand over fist already? What's the deal?

Heidi September 8, 2015

Ken - Armstrong said the same thing in those days - gold to $ 5000 by 2015/2016 . But these guys have a complicated way of expressing themselves ( so that you and I don't understand too much and they always can say - I DID NOT SAY THAT ) . In case of Armstrong's GOLD TO $ 5000 by 2015/2016 it had to enter the Phase Transition to go higher than $ 2000 but it stopped at $ 1920's . That's why gold $ 5000 by 2015 was / is cancelled and it has to start all over again from bottom - what ever the bottom might be . But of course these guys don't write in a way that reg. people could understand it . If you look at most miners they look like gold is at $ 800 already HMY @ $ 0.71 / KGC at $ 1.57 / NEM @ $ 15.39 - all new lows . Not looking good .

Rc September 6, 2015

That's what I want to know. Is Super Cycle Trader the Gold and Silver Trader service revised. He's a jack of all services and master of none.

$1,000 gold September 8, 2015

the unrate dropped another 0.2%. the fed will be compelled to tighten this month after all. i can't wait to see the affect this has on gold, oil and the dollar.

Heidi September 8, 2015

I just got another e-mail from Larry ( the 8th ) - he says it's urgent to send him $ 1854 USD right away - his mortgage is due on that day ...............lol .

Gofer September 8, 2015

Ha Ha Ha Ha....................... So Armstrong said that bit about Gold going to $5000 but the phase transition didn't pan out? How interesting You are right about the cryptic writings and trying to make heads or tails out of it... I am sorta new to the scene with these guys, so let me ask you a question. How long ago was that call, and what have you heard about the precious metals market of late Is the (gold) Eiffel tower going down to its base, or faking everyone out, and going to new highs

Cynthia September 8, 2015

I think this is an energetic study and sometimes energy storms push around the timelines Be more Respectful I'm sure of one thing you need Larry more than he needs Y O U

Heidi September 8, 2015

Gofer - the same thing can happen to the DOW . Anything under15500 it gets serious for the DOW and the Phase Transition might not happen there either , Who ever came up with that stuff ? Armstrong ? Ha- the Phase Transition is not even confirmed yet ... http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36343 Armstrong's gold calls are sometimes wishy-washy in my opinion . Since May 2014 he had gold at $ 1086 as support and then $ 904 . Have you seen $ 904 in your corner of the world ? Neither have I and that is 16 month ago . Mind you if you look at the miners and their new low ( with a few exceptions of course )- who needs gold under $ 1000 ?